In his post-Oscar congratulation letter to Gold Derby‘s most accurate predictors, Tom O’Neil closed his email with “SPECIAL CONGRATS to Awards Daily‘s Sasha Stone and Rotten Tomatoes‘ Matt Atchity for nailing Moonlight as Best Picture! Amazing!” Wait…Sasha changed her mind the day before the Oscars (i.e., on the morning of Saturday, 2.6) and she gets an “amazing”?

Naaah — not in my book. If you’re gonna make an accurate lone-wolf call, you have to make it known at least a few days if not a week before the Oscars. Changing your vote 36 hours prior to the big event is meaningless.

Keep in mind that Stone was predicting La La Land as of the final Gurus of Gold chart, which posted…what, two or three days before the show? Each and every Guru except the Toronto Star‘s Peter Howell predicted La La Land to win. In fact Howell’s #1 vote for Moonlight was characterized as a one-vote wonder. The fact is that nobody saw the Moonlight win coming, and yet some of them are now trying to make it sound like they half-knew it all along, or at least began to sense a shift in the wind at the very last second. Bullshit.

Can you imagine being backstage at the Oscars and realizing what had just happened, that the wrong card had been given to Warren Beatty and that the wrong film was being celebrated as the Best Picture winner and doing nothing for what seemed like a helluva long time? If I’d been in charge I would have rushed onto the stage immediately and told Beatty and the La La Land producers “guys, please don’t hate us but a really terrible mistake has happened…we’re so sorry to put you through this but Moonlight has won.” It took them forever to man up and set things straight.

53 years ago Sammy Davis Jr. got handed the wrong envelope also. His first task was to read off the nominees for Best Adapted or Treatment Music Score. But when it came to announcing the winner, the card Davis was handed said John Addison, whose work on Tony Richardson‘s Tom Jones would go on to win for Best Original Score. The card should have said that the winner was Andre Previn for his adapted work on Billy Wilder‘s Irma La Douce.

God, what a decorous, stiff-necked vibe prevailed at that 4.13.64 ceremony!

1963’s Best Picture Oscar went to Tom Jones, Tony Richardson won for Best Director, Sidney Poitier‘s performance in Lilies of the Field won the Best Actor Oscar, Patricia Neal‘s supporting performance in Hud won for Best Actress, her Hud costar Melvyn Douglas won for Best Supporting Actor and The VIP’s Margaret Rutherford won for Best Supporting Actress.

Nobody and I mean nobody was predicting a Best Picture win for Barry Jenkins‘ Moonlight, but it edged out La La Land all the same.  So what happened?  

Donald Trump happened, for the most part.  Championing a small, sensitive film about a lonely closeted black dude from Miami — a film about love, compassion and overcoming fear as well as the bruisings of a bad parent — was the right thing to do in the face of a loathsome climate of alt-rightism and “make America [white] again.”

Obviously a large bloc of voters simply warmed to Moonlight for its intimacy and artistry.  A good portion of these supporters, I suspect, had also been stubbornly insisting all through award season that La La Land was escapist fluff. Which anyone with a soul and a brain will tell you it definitely isn’t (or at least is a lot sadder and more melancholy than the lightweights realized).  But the “say no to fantasy” clods wouldn’t budge.

L.A. Times columnist Glenn Whipp wrote last night that after giving Best Picture trophies to The Artist, Argo and Birdman Academy members had tired of honoring yet another film about struggling artists and the travails of the entertainment industry. 

But at the end of the day, Moonlight won a Best Picture majority for the same reason that Asghar Farhadi‘s The Salesman took the Best Foreign Language Feature Oscar — it was the right film to support in lieu of the ugliness in Washington.

Received last night from Jordan Ruimy:  “Moonlight‘s Best Picture win was at least partly mandated by the racial politics of the moment.”

S.R.O. (Significant Russian Other) to me last night:  “What is this Moonlight?  Have you seen it?”

Me:  “Yeah. Saw it last September.  It’s small but good.  Very well made.  Didn’t exactly rock my plimsoul…”

S.R.O.:  “As good as La La Land?”  [Which she saw a few weeks ago and loved.]

Me:  “Well, in my humble opinion, no.  But it’s good.  I respect it.  It’s a thumbs-upper.”

12:15 am: For what it’s worth, a little while ago I ran into La La Land director-writer Damian Chazelle at the Lionsgate after-party, and I told him “You know what? What happened was super crazy but you guys are fine” and he totally agreed — “We’re good, we’re cool and all’s well…thanks for your support, good seein’ ya” and so on & blah blah. What happened tonight was a Warren Beatty-Faye Dunaway comedy that wasn’t their fault. Mistakes happen, humans are fallible, etc. Good for Moonlight and good for La La Land — in my mind they both won because they both took Best Picture bows. But seriously, who fucked up? The world wants to know.

9:04 pm: As first reported by Scott Feinberg, Bonnie & Clyde costars Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway are presenting the Best Picture Oscar. And with all of the Best Picture nominees getting a 35- or 40-second clip reel, it’ll be a while before they announce that La La Land is the winner. Announced at 9:09 pm! The winner of seven Oscars. It all pretty much went down like expected. Wait…wait …Moonlight has won Best Picture??? Moonlight??? Mr. Beatty tries to explain what happened — the envelope said “Emma Stone — La La Land.” Mind-blowing!

8:54 pm: Leonardo DiCaprio presenting the Best Actress Oscar to Emma Stone…right? Yes! A gracious acceptance speech. Everybody gets a “thank you” for helping and hugging on this “crazy adventure.” Breathless!

8:48 pm: Brie Larson presenting the Best Actor Oscar to (this is a fairly big one, the only truly suspenseful moment of the night) Casey Affleck! The SAG vote was smoke! So Manchester has two Oscars, at least, and the comment threaders who predicted less than this can suck it. Mara Buxbaum gets her second shout-out of the night! Casey prevails, fair is fair and all is well.

8:42 pm: Halle Berry (what’s with the hair?) presenting Best Director Oscar to Damien Chazelle for La La Land…yes!

8:31: Manchester By the Sea director-writer Kenneth Lonergan wins for Best Original Screenplay. Yes! Mara Buxbaum gets a shout-out! Thanks very, very much, Mr. Lonergan. And the Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar goes to Moonlight’s Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney.

8:27 pm: Kimmel’s satirical riff on Matt Damon’s performance in We Bought A Zoo (and Cameron Crowe’s writing of some of the dialogue) is hilarious. Has a movie ever been taken down on an Oscar telecast on such a fashion? Crowe can take comfort that the humor is all about Damon vs. Kimmel, or, you know, about getting Damon. Ben Affleck‘s tuxedo is ill-fitting.

8:20 pm: The Death Reel. Did they have time to fit Bill Paxton in? Jennifer Aniston‘s mention of Paxton in her introduction suggests they didn’t. Nope — no Paxton. You could’ve done it, guys! Thumbs down.

8:16 pm: I for one am no fan of Scarlett Johansson‘s hair style…no offense. The Oscar for Best Song goes to La La Land‘s “City of Stars” — Justin Hurwitz, Justin Paul and Benj Pasek. “Queen of the West” Lisa Taback gets a shout-out!

8:13 pm: Samuel L. Jackson presenting Oscar for Best Original Score to La La Land‘s Justin Hurwitz. Deserved!

8:05 pm: John Legend‘s performance of “City of Stars” plus the midnight-blue-tinged-with-violet lighting plus the choreography hits the spot.

8:02 pm: Ryan Gosling‘s mean bone-structure tweet was/is perfect. Most of these are pretty good. “I think Jeff Bridges wears pants a lot less than we think he does.” Robert De Niro‘s “eff you” was great!

7:59 pm: Does La La Land win for Best Cinematography? Yes! La La Land is safe. The “possible surprise upset” talk ends now.

7:53 pm: Something like ten awards left to go, and Jeff Sneider has seven of them going to La La Land. Ya think?

7:45 pm: Best Documentary Short Subject Oscar goes to The White Helmets. Best Live Action Short Film Oscar goes to Sing.

7:38 pm: Best Editing Oscar goes to Hacksaw Ridge‘s John Gilbert. What is that, two for Hacksaw and one for La La Land so far? Or something like that? Definitely no La La sweep. I don’t get the Hacksaw love. Overboiled, overbaked, emotionally on the nose, etc. Nick Nunziata: “I didn’t see the same Hacksaw Ridge all these voting assholes saw.”

The least exciting Oscar awards of the 21st Century will begin at 5:30 pm Pacific, or four hours hence. The only cliffhanger among the major contenders is whether or not the over-and-settled allegations against Manchester by The Sea‘s Casey Affleck will give Fences‘ Denzel Washington a shot at winning his third Oscar. That’s it — the only situation that handicappers aren’t sure about. Along with whether or not Bill Paxton will be included in the death reel.

I’m betting on an Affleck win, which reminds me that I need to ban Bobby Peru from the comment threads.

HE will live-blog through the show, and then it’s off to the La La Land after-party at Soho House.

BEST PICTURE: Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures, La La Land, Lion, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (W); Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge; Ryan Gosling, La La Land; Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic, Denzel Washington, Fences.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE: Isabelle Huppert, Elle; Ruth Negga, Loving; Natalie Portman, Jackie; Emma Stone, La La Land (W), Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (W); Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water; Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea; Dev Patel, Lion; Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: Viola Davis, Fences (W); Naomie Harris, Moonlight; Nicole Kidman, Lion; Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures; Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea.

BEST DIRECTING: Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, La La Land (W — Damian Chazelle), Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight.

In a reasonable, fair-minded realm of movie assessment (i.e., one not dictated by fear of saying something that might get you branded as politically incorrect), Jordan Peele‘s Get Out, a decent but far from perfect B-level horror film that explores subterranean racial animus among liberal elites, would have a Rotten Tomatoes rating of, oh, 85% or 87%. And a Metacritic rating in the mid to high 70s. It’s simply not good enough to have a rating in the mid to upper ’90s, and the idea of a horror-comedy with the sensibility of an ’80s-era John Carpenter or Wes Craven earning a perfect 100% score is flat-out ridiculous.

But that’s what Get Out has right now, and Metacritic has given it an 83% positive. This is what you would call an avalanche of generosity. Another way to describe it is a conspiracy of cowardice on the part of at least some of the critics out there. Yesterday I was all but accused of being an Imperial Wizard of the Southern California chapter of the Ku Klux Klan because (a) I called the premise nervy and intriguing for the first 45 minutes but (b) expressed regret that the film loses juice the more it embraces conventional horror tropes, and that the VFX are cheesy and the writing (particularly the ending) is sloppy.

There’s a clear difference between Alfred Hitchcock‘s handling of the runaway car sequence in Family Plot (’76) vs. the mountain road chase in To Catch A Thief (’55). For some reason the rear-projection footage feels bothersome in Plot (not to mention Barbara Harris‘s absurd over-reactions making things worse for poor Bruce Dern) but oddly natural in Thief. The fact is that Robert Burks‘ Oscar-winning VistaVision photography for Thief is handsome, beautifully balanced and easy on the eyes, and George Tomasini‘s editing makes the Thief sequence feel centered, relaxed and at peace with the universe. The reactions of Cary Grant and Grace Kelly to the various intrigues and impediments are just right; ditto the insert shots of Grant’s nervous hands. There’s a reason why To Catch A Thief is one of my favorite late-night comfort films and why I’ve never re-watched Family Plot (and I own a decent Bluray of it). Thief is smooth, elegant and comforting and Plot is not.

Former Labor Secretary Tom Perez is a good guy (I found him charming during a recent visit to Real Time with Bill Maher), but Hollywood Elsewhere regrets his victory over Keith Ellison for the chairmanship of the Democratic National Committee. Ellison was the choice of the reformist Bernie Sanders/Michael Moore wing of the party, and Perez was and is more or less the candidate of the corporate-supported, business-as-usual mainstream Democratic machine. Perez beat Ellison on the second round — 235 to 200. Not a good thing. The Hillary Clinton apparatchiks have to be out out to pasture. Me to Roger Friedman during yesterday’s Spirit Awards: “What’s your reaction to Perez winning the DNC chair?” Friedman: “Perez Hilton is the new head of the Democratic party?”

You’re strong and pulsing and vigorously here, and then you’re dealt a bad card and you’re not. Bill Paxton, whom I ran into last May in Cannes at a screening of Mean Dreams, is gone. From “complications following a surgical procedure,” whatever the hell that means. The guy was only 61, and now he sleeps with the fishes. Paxton always projected an amiable, laid-back Average Joe type of vibe, and it just seems rude and cruel that his life has been stopped like a car hitting a telephone pole. “Game over, man…game over.”

Hands down, Paxton’s finest performance was as the morally conflicted Hank Mitchell in Sam Raimi‘s under-appreciated A Simple Plan, which I’m going to re-watch today in tribute. Great performance, great film (and certainly Raimi’s finest ever).

Oscar telecast producers Mike DeLuca and Jennifer Todd have to slip Paxton into tonight’s death reel segment. C’mon, guys…you’ve got a few hours.

Paxton had a five year run as Utah polygamist Bill Henrickson in HBO’s Big Love, which I was half into for the first two seasons.

Paxton’s most commercial lead role was as Bill “The Extreme” Harding in Jon De Bont‘s Twister (’96). The most famous line of his career was “game over, man…game over” in James Cameron’s Aliens (’86) — his first noticable punch-through. Paxton’s second most famous line was spoken in Cameron’s Titanic — “I never got it…I never let it in,” and his third most famous line was spoken in Cameron’s True Lies — “I’ve got a little dick.”

Paxton’s very first screen role (uncredited) was in Jonathan Demme‘s Crazy Mama (’75), when he was 19 or 20. Six years later he played a nondescript solider in Ivan Reitman’s Stripes (’81).