Like I said early this morning I’ve been piddling around with a brand-new Oscar Ballon 2009 chart and whammo, In Contention‘s Kris Tapley just posted a whole big ’09 projection package. I guess I have to throw mine together today as well. I was hoping to chill down today.

Why doesn’t the L.A. Times Buzzmeter poll ask for predictions in all categories so everyone can see how well the experts did at the end of the day? Why hasn’t MCN’s David Poland published the right-wrong calls of all final Gurus of Gold poll so we can all see at a glance who was better at reading the race than the others?

For what it’s worth, I got five wrong last night, including an abstention. And I fully admit I’m not too good at predicting because I can’t divorce myself from my personal preferences, no matter what the tea leaves say. Anyway, here’s the proof. Missing five isn’t too bad. If you missed eight or nine I think it’s fair to call your industry pulse-reading abilities into question. If you got ten or more wrong, you need to take a long walk and then stop by a local tavern.

The Gurus of Gold winners with the fewest wrong calls were The Envelope‘s Pete Hammond and Entertainment Weekly‘s Dave Karger, with four wrongos each.

Former L.A. Daily News critic Glenn Whipp , In Contention‘s Kris Tapley and USA Today‘s Suzie Woz got five wrong. Several Gurus got six and seven wrong. Awards Daily‘s Sasha Stone and USA Today‘s Scott Bowles both missed eight. And the bottom three with nine wrong apiece were Poland, Toronto Star critic Pete Howell and N.Y. Post critic Lou Lumenick.

The Buzzmeter only ran full results from all 24 categories from Tom O’Neil, Hammond and Scott Feinberg. O’Neil missed three (the best score of anyone), Hammond missed four and Feinberg got six wrong, for a total of 18.

“What’s not to like about James Franco and Seth Rogen‘s Beavis and Butthead routine, slobbed on the couch in front of this year’s contenders? Their giggling and guffawing at The Reader is somehow more damning (and more exposing of the film’s overweening pomposity) than a thousand bad reviews.” — the Guardian‘s Xan Brooks during an Oscar-show live blog.

Tina Fey: “It has been said that to write is to live forever.”

Steve Martin: “The man who said that is dead.”

Fey: “Yet, we all know the importance of writing, because every great movie begins with a great screenplay.”

Martin: “Or, a very good idea for the poster. But usually, with a screenplay.”

Fey: “And every writer starts with a blank page.”

Martin: “And every blank page was once a tree.”

Fey: “And every tree was once a tiny seed.”

Martin: “And every tiny seed on Earth was placed here by the alien king Rondelay, to foster our titrates and fuel our positive transfers!”

I’ve just posted last night’s winners in the Oscar Balloon, but Oscar Ballon 2009 will be up and rolling sometime this weekend, certainly by Sunday night. I’ve already started this discussion but right now I’m looking for imaginative but not-too-loopy spitball nominations in nine major categories — Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor and Actress, Original and Adapted Screenplay and Cinematography.

In no particular order: Clint Eastwood‘s rugby-themed Mandela (or Playing The Enemy); Michael Mann’s Public Enemies, Terrence Malick‘s Tree of Life, Paul Greengrass‘s The Green Zone, Pedro Almodovar‘s Broken Embraces, Lone Scherfig‘s An Education (with a promising Best Actress nomination for Carey Mulligan), Peter Jackson‘s The Lovely Bones, and Rob Marshall‘s Nine.

Plus Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu‘s Biutiful, John Hillcoat‘s The Road, Mikael Hafstrom‘s Shanghai, Stephen Frears‘ Cher, Ang Lee‘s Taking Woodstock, Steven Soderbergh‘s The Informant and Nora Ephron‘s Julie and Julia.

Plus The Last Station with Helen Mirren, James McAvoy, Paul Giamatti ; Young Victoria with Emily Blunt, Miranda Richardson and James Broadbent; 1939 with Maggie Smith ; Bright Star with Abbie Cornish; John Madden‘s The Debt. And what else?

Hollywood & Fine’s Marshall Fine has five snippy pisshead complaints about last night’s Oscar show. “With the exception of Steve Martin and Tina Fey (who, I would imagine, wrote their own dialogue), the banter between presenters was incredibly thin,” he writes. I’m afraid that’s true, guys. “Jack Black and Jennifer Aniston gave me chills of embarrassment. While Hugh Jackman‘s opening number was clever and energetic, nothing he said afterward was worth repeating or remembering.”

Jeffrey Wells to Judd Apatow (privately and publicly): Your Pineapple-themed tube-watching short was far and away the best thing on last night’s show. By far the funniest, warmest, coolest and most sophisticated. Loved it, man. Seth Rogen and James Franco are kings of the realm. The world belongs to those two, or certainly belonged to them last night. It would be one of the most perfect moves of all time if they were to co-host next year’s show…seriously.

The sound on the above YouTube clip is out of synch. Is it just me?

I need to clarify matters on the Departures prophecy issue in lieu of this Japanese film having won the Best Foreign Language Oscar — another “gulp” episode in the Academy’s foreign- language voting record. Waltz With Bashir should have won, Waltz With Bashir should have won, Waltz With Bashir should have won. Expel those turkey-neck softies in the foreign-language branch who always vote for the stodgy, emotionally reassuring films. But I digress….

Three days ago (on 2.20) In Contention‘s Kris Tapley wrote in his column that Departures is “looking to spoil” and “waiting in the wings to upset” the presumed front runner (i.e., Bashir). Which was a fairly sage call on his part.

Tapley did not, however, predict a win in MCN’s Gurus of Gold chart. The only Guru who predicted that was The Envelope‘s Pete Hammond, who gave it a 5. (Which indicates some kind of emphatic support.)

And Variety-associated Anne Thompson, it should be noted, gave Departures a 2 vote, which means she had it on her definite possible list.

Update: Coming Soon’s Ed Douglas called the Departures win also.

12:13 pm Update: Tapley has reminded me that he posted an In Contention prediction on or about 2.20 that Departures would in fact win. He did, however, add a parenthetical “updated!” to the original post, and Tapley did write, “I might be making a mistake, but I sense an upset so I’m sticking my neck out for Departures after all.” So he’s not quite Chandu or Dunninger or The Great Carsoni, but he made a good call, all things considered.

He claims that If Poland was a vigorous as opposed to a sluggish updater (i.e., the last Gurus update was a week ago, he says), he would have called it for Departures along with Pete Hammond and Ed Douglas.

For me tonight’s Oscar show was defined by an agreeably classy vibe, nice but less than historic production numbers, and a couple of big shockers — the defeat of The Wrestler‘s Mickey Rourke by Milk‘s Sean Penn in the Best Actor race, and Departure‘s defeat of Waltz With Bashir and The Class to take the Best Foreign Language Oscar.

And the utter predictability of just about everything else.

The best innovation by producers Bill Condon and Larry Mark was having five Oscar-winning actors of the past come out as a group and praise each of the five nominees. Nice tough — classy, gracious, communal. Keep it.

The biggest non-shock of the evening came when Slumdog Millionaire took the Best Picture Oscar — a triumph that had been predicted for many months. Watching the entire happy Slumdog family together on-stage was certainly a moment. The difference was that “we had a script that inspired mad love,” said a smiling producer, and “we had a shared love for Mumbai, the city where we made the movie,” and “we had passion for the movie itself.”

It was a pleasant-enough Oscar show, but the wild voltage just didn’t happen. What voltage could have happened? It wasn’t in the films, not really, and the show itself, while very crisp and professional and agreeably slick in many respects, felt almost too smooth. No missteps, no bad moves except for the awarding of Departures, nothing gauche or excessive, no streakers, no Sasheen Littlefeather, no Jack Palance push-up jokes…nothing.

Judd Apatow‘s short film costarring the great Seth Rogen and James Franco and Janusz Kaminsky was easily the best thing on the show. Hilarious. Laughed out loud often. Rogen and Franco should have hosted the show with their dopey-sharp-brilliant Pineapple repartee. Would’ve been great.

The shocker of the night finally (if not all that welcomely) came when Sean Penn won the Best Actor Oscar for his work in Milk, and Mickey Rourke, whom everyone was picking to win based on the momentum of the last two or three weeks, didn’t. But no shame on the vote or the choice. Penn did very, very well by Harvey Milk in Milk. He found his inner gay man and made him smile and sing out.

Kate Winslet won for Best Actress, and good for that. Many of us are convinced that this award is really for her work in Revolutionary Road, which is a far, far better film than The Reader.

Slumdog Millionaire‘s Danny Boyle won the Best Director Oscar. There was a realistic choice?

Penelope Cruz won the Best Supporting Actress Oscar for Vicky Cristina Barcelona. As expected and predicted by everyone in the world except for David Carr, a.k.a., “the Bagger,” who wrote that the great Viola Davis (Doubt) would take it. It would have been great indeed if she had, but Davis got a serious career bump and that’s what counts.

The opening number aside, I wasn’t getting a lot of personality from the show in the early stages. It felt a little like the Tony’s, a little bit like the Broadcast Film Critics People’s Choice Awards, a little bit like the WGA Awards, a little bit like the 1937 Oscar Awards, etc. It moved along quickly enough but…well, there’s no winning, is there? It looked good all through, I felt a distinct lack of jolt and nerve.

The opener was okay. Hugh Jackman was relaxed and into it as far as it went. We were all watching an Oscar ceremony at the Ambassador Hotel in 1937. Where’s Fredric March? Jackman sang a bit of a hokey medley song, okay, but the silly-foolish energy appealed. Anne Hathaway, I felt, did herself proud. Chummy, loose, felt fine.

Departures, reportedly a nice, good-enough drama, shocked much of the civilized world (with the exception of Kris Tapley, who predicted that it might win) by taking the Best Foreign Language Oscar. Israel is weeping and stamping its feet over the loss suffered by Waltz With Bashir, which is incontestably one of the most original and searing films of the year.

Kim Ledger, Kate Ledger and Sally Bell accepting Heath’s Best Supporting Actor Oscar.

It’s a crime that this happened. Those infuriating foreign language people! To go by Tapley’s recent description, Departures is a kind of Japanese Salieri film. Decent, heartfelt, respectable — and not even close to Bashir‘s calibre.

A sense of boredom was manifest due to the predictability. Every award except for Best Actor and Best Foreign Language feature fell right into line.

Ben Stiller‘s Joaquin Pheonix routine was, for me, quite funny. The first time I laughed out loud as opposed to chortling or chuckling or just smiling.

Slumdog Millionaire‘s A.R. Rahman won — not very surprisingly, almost disappointingly — the Best Musical Score Oscar. Rahman’s “Jai Ho” also won the Best Song Oscar.

The Best Original Screenplay Oscar went to Dustin Lance Black for political reasons. Politics and political point- making as it affects the here-and-now — particularly the bruising that was Prop 8 — always matters. Black’s thank you was eloquent and very emotional. “Thank God for giving us Harvey Milk.”

The first Benjamin Button tech Oscar was for Best Art Direction. The Costume Design Oscar always goes to the movie set in a ruffly and exotic time period, so naturally the winner was the 18th Century The Duchess. Button has also won the Best Makeup Oscar.

Slumdog Millionaire‘s Anthony Dod Mantle won the Best Cinematography Oscar…naturally.

Congratulations to Toyland for winning the Best Live-Action Short Oscar.

The Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar went to Slumdog Millionaire‘s Simon Beaufoy as an expression of the general sweep mentality surrounding and supporting this film.

“The man who wrote that is now dead…every blank page was once a tree.” Steve Martin‘s Oscar podium material (which I presume he’s written himself) always plays better than the material in his films.

Andrew Stanton‘s WALL*E won the Best Animated Feature Oscar…shocker. Kumio Kato‘s La Maison en Petits Cubes has won the Best Animated Short.

The Dark Knight‘s Heath Ledger, of course, took the Best Supporting Actor Oscar. Ledger’s dad, mom and sister accepted. “An original and enduring legacy” indeed. A feeling of sadness, solemnity, finality. “On behalf of your beautiful Matilda….thank you.”

Bill Maher‘s introductory remarks for the awarding of the Best Documentary Feature Oscar contained, naturally, a slight plug for Religulous . The Oscar, of course, was won by Man on Wire and director James Marsh. Phillipe Petit ‘s coin trick and Oscar nose-balancing was exquisite. And congratulations to Megan Mylan and Smile Pinki for winning Best Doc Short.

Visual Effects Oscar went to Benjamin Button. Naturally.

The Dark Knight‘s Richard King took the Best Sound Editing Oscar. And the Best Sound Mixing Oscar went to the sweeping Slumdog.

Jerry Lewis accepted his Oscar with dignity, brevity, graciousness. Not a trace of snip or caustic wit, even. Short and sweet, in and out, thank you from the bottom of my heart, etc.

I would have gone the traditional old-school smoothie route if I’d been Rourke. Played against the knockabout persona. Worn a plain black, perfectly tailored tux. Less is more, modest restraint, etc. Instead he decks himself out like a punk from Venice Boulevard who doesn’t know any better.

Regrets and salutations for Defamer‘s Seth Abramovitch, Stu VanAirsdale and Kyle Buchanan, who’ve gotten the axe. Why was this announced today? It’s not as if everyone’s ignoring it, although I suppose it helps to minimize coverage.

It sure feels terrific not watching or thinking about, much less commenting upon, red-carpet crap in front of the Kodak. As Klaus Kinski said near the beginning of Act Two of Dr. Zhivago, “I am the only free man on this train!”