Last night I saw Will Ferrell‘s “You’re Welcome, America: A Final Night with George W. Bush” at the Cort theatre on West 48th. It’s a show for the shlubs — an extended lowbrow comedy skit with a fair amount of back-and-forth repartee between Ferrell and the audience, the sort of thing that could easily enjoy an extended run in Las Vegas. Written by Ferrell and directed by Adam McKay, it lacks depth and reflection but I laughed, dammit — loudly and often.

The best bit happened when Ferrell’s Bush asked audience members to tell him their name and occupations so he could give them a pet nickname (i.e., one of the Real McCoy’s better-known habits/tendencies). In a performance described by N.Y. Times critic Ben Brantley , a guy said he was a reviewer and Ferrell said, “Obsolete profession.” Last night he called upon a woman who said she was a nurse. “I’ll call you tits,” he said right back. A man said he was the mayor of Fort Lee, New Jersey, and Ferrell replied, “Mayor of Shittown.” That one brought down the house.

Ferrell owns it all — Bush, the frat-boy patter, the show, the audience. He knows exactly and I mean exactly what he’s doing. I enjoyed him last night more than all his screen performances combined. If you’re a tourist or someone off the bus from New Jersey you could do a lot worse than pay to see this show. It’s funny, it’s easy to get, and it doesn’t go into the ghastly horror aspects (i.e., the fact that this country was all but decimated within and without during Bush’s presidency) at all. Well, it sort of does once but only for 30 or 40 seconds. In silence.

And then the red phone rings and it’s back to the funny bullshit. “They used to call me gin and tonic,” “Awww, Brownie,” “Diego Luna,” etc.

Yesterday afternoon Nikki Finke posted this Hugh Jackman Oscar rehearsal video. “Top Hat”?

Deadline Hollywood Daily vs. The Wrap vs. Big Hollywood. In the somewhat traditional, slightly old-school view of the Financial Times‘ Matthew Garrahan, the ultimate Hollywood blogger battle is happening between these three.

Thanks to dhreck.com for the heads-up. Also available here.

Haaretz.com’s Gideon Levy has waffle-ironed Waltz With Bashir in an psychologically exacting, very well written piece that went up sometime late yesterday. He basically says that Ari Folman‘s film lies about Israel’s heart of darkness, and particularly about its culpability in the wanton slaughter of Israel’s enemies, past and present.

“Everyone now has his fingers crossed for Ari Folman and all the creative artists behind Waltz with Bashir to win the Oscar on Sunday,” Levy begins. “A first Israeli Oscar? Why not?

“However, it must also be noted that the film is infuriating, disturbing, outrageous and deceptive. It deserves an Oscar for the illustrations and animation, but a badge of shame for its message.

“It was not by accident that when he won the Golden Globe, Folman didn’t even mention the war in Gaza, which was raging as he accepted the prestigious award. The images coming out of Gaza that day looked remarkably like those in Folman’s film. But he was silent. So before we sing Folman’s praises, which will of course be praise for us all, we would do well to remember that this is not an antiwar film, nor even a critical work about Israel as militarist and occupier. It is an act of fraud and deceit, intended to allow us to pat ourselves on the back, to tell us and the world how lovely we are.”

Boil the snow out of Pete Hammond‘s 2.20 Envelope piece about possible Oscar stunners, and it comes down to a closer race going on between Best Actress contenders Kate Winslet and Meryl Streep than some people realize.

“A lot of bloggers have been throwing out Melissa Leo as a threat to presumed winner Kate Winslet,” he writes. “Really? How can Kate lose? She’s on the cover of Time magazine this week so it’s over, right?”

Not necessarily, he warns, because “just as in the actor race a strong three-way contest can produce an unexpected result.

“A lot, I mean A LOT of voters have told me they went with Meryl Streep. But A LOT have said the same thing about Winslet. One guy I know voted for Melissa Leo, but apparently many voters outside of the actors branch caught up with her small indie film, Frozen River, quite late in the game even though Sony Classics got it out to the academy first back in September.

“That fresh front-of-mind factor could work in Leo’s favor. If it were just actors voting I would make Leo the front-runner. They love her and they’ve all worked with her, but it’s the entire academy voting so the main contest is Streep vs. Winslet. And don’t forget there’s a lot of academy love for Winslet’s film, The Reader. It would indeed be a stunner for me if she lost here.

“But a REALLY close vote between those two could make Leo a real, not imagined, factor.”

And the favored/probable winners at today’s Film Independent Spirit Awards will be….uhm, I had the nominees pasted somewhere, can’t find ’em, whatever. I know this much at least — hooray and hip-pip for Melissa Leo! Okay, the nominees are posted on this IFC.com news page. Get it together already.

If I was in Los Angeles I’d be driving over on the motorcyle to the big circus tent on the beach in Santa Monica around 11 am or so. Wine and champagne schmooze time begins around noon and the show, hosted this year by the great Steve Coogan and beamed by the IFC Channel, will kick off around 2 pm. And then the after-party at Shutters. Except I’m here in New Jersey/New York, where it was Northern Canadian cold last night.

The winner of this year’s Robert Koehler Austere Indie Gloomhead I-Don’t-Wannna-Get-It Award is Lance Hammer’s Ballast.

Ballast is also nominated for the Best Feature along with Frozen River, Rachel Getting Married, Wendy and Lucy and The Wrestler. The winner, I’m guessing, will either be The Wrestler or Rachel Getting Married. Could Frozen River take it? I don’t think so. The secretly-agreed-upon deal is for Melissa Leo to take the Best Actress award and maybe Courtney…I don’t want to give too much away.

Best Director nominees are Chop Shop‘s Ramin Bahrani, Rachel Getting Married‘s Jonathan Demme, gloomhead Ballast guy Lance Hammer, Frozen River’s Courtney Hunt, and The Visitor‘s Thomas McCarthy. Give it to McCarthy!

Who cares about the Best First Feature award? We all should this year because it presents an opportunity for Synecdoche Judgment Day, yay or nay. Will they give it to incorrigible gloom-head Charlie Kaufman or the Latino guy who directed Sleep Dealer, which I saw at Sundance ’08? The nominees are Afterschool, Medicine for Melancholy and Sangre de Mi Sangre besides Sleep Dealer and Synecdoche, New York.

Nobody cares about the John Cassavetes Award, which is given out to the best feature made for under $500,000.

The Best First Screenplay Spirit Award will go to Milk‘s Dustin Lance Black as a symbolic repudiation of the the pro-Prop. 8 position held by former L.A. Film Festival director Rich Raddon, who worked for FIND and who resigned on or about 11.25.08 after his monetary contribution to the Prop. 8 campaign became known. The indie gay contingent and their many supporters need to make the point that intolerance won’t be tolerated in the FIND ranks, and so Black wins for writing a screenplay about a legendary martyr to the gay-rights cause.

The other contenders for this award — Lance Hammer (Ballast), Courtney Hunt (Frozen River), Jonathan Levine (The Wackness) and Jenny Lumet (Rachel Getting Married) haven’t a prayer against this.

The Best Screenplay nominees are Woody Allen (Vicky Cristina Barcelona), Anna Boden and Ryan Fleck (Sugar), Charlie Kaufman (Synecdoche, New York) , Howard A. Rodman (Savage Grace) and Christopher Zalla (Sangre de Mi Sangre). Let’s see…the sexiest marquee-value contender is Allen but he never shows up so let’s give it to Kaufman.

Best Female Lead nominees: Summer Bishil (Towelhead…journalists in Toronto were offended by her jailbait sex scene with Aaron Eckhart), Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married…yes!…but probably won’t win!), Melissa Leo (Frozen River), Tarra Riggs (Ballast….forget it!) and Michelle Williams (Wendy and Lucy). Like I said, Leo wins. She deserves it besides.

Best Male Lead: Javier Bardem ( Vicky Cristina Barcelona), Richard Jenkins (The Visitor…HE’s favorite in this realm), Sean Penn (Milk), Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker…why nominate him now with The Hurt Locker not opening until August?) and Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler). Rourke or Penn will win.

Best Supporting Female: Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona), Rosemarie DeWitt (Rachel Getting Married), Rosie Perez (The Take), Misty Upham (Frozen River), and Debra Winger (Rachel Getting Married). HE would love to see the award go to DeWitt.

Best Supporting Male: James Franco (Milk), Anthony Mackie (The Hurt Locker), Charlie McDermott (Frozen River), JimMyron Ross (Ballast), and Haaz Sleiman (The Visitor). Mackie is entirely right and convincing in Locker, but the award will probably go to Franco, who did a fine job. (And who deserves props for repeatedly kissing a fake-bearded Sean Penn, who always has cigarette breath on top of everything else.)

I haven’t time to list all the others. Que sera, sera.

I mentioned this two or three years ago, but I’m still struck by Cary Grant‘s looking-forward remarks after being handed his Life Achievement Oscar on April 4, 1970. Right at the start of Hollywood’s golden era, just as things were kicking in big-time, all the great ’70s film yet to be made. And here‘s what he said.

“I’ll say it again: Revolutionary Road is one of the best, if not the best, movie of 2008,” writes HE reader Jeremy Fassler. “It was a great book and it made an equally great movie.

“But I was initially shocked by how alone I was in this feeling. Several of my friends either hated the film or refused to see it. Every single year there’s one film I love which my friends don’t warm to. In previous years those films were Sideways and Brokeback Mountain, proving that typically I’m vindicated in these situations.

“After thinking about it for a while, I think people simply are uncomfortable when marital discomfort is thrown in their faces. This movie makes no bones about this. From the first scene you know you’re not going to leave the theater doing a tap dance. I think that put people off, a movie starting with your two lead actors getting in a major fight. From then on, the people I know complained that they felt no sympathy for anyone in the film.

“For some reason stories of marital trauma don’t depress me. Depressing is a movie about someone who has an incredibly shitty life, like The Wrestler or Monster. But people, especially middle-aged ones, don’t want to see marital trauma thrown back in their faces.

“On the flip side is The Reader, a film dealing with the greatest tragedy in human history — and somehow that’s not depressing for a lot of people because they can feel good about supporting a film dealing with such a sensitive topic.

“Make no mistake: Kate Winslet deserves the Best Actress Oscar for Revolutionary Road, for giving one of the best performances of the year and perhaps her best ever.”

Copied from IGN, which put up some ostensibly exclusive Inglourious Basterds stills and poster art this morning.

I’m fundamentally flawed as a handicapper and Oscar-pool better because I can’t step back and say “this film or filmmaker will win even though I have problems with it/him/her.” If I have issues with anyone or anything, I can”t just look at the odds and predict victory. Except when the odds are so overwhelming there’s simply no other choice, as it is with Slumdog Millionaire winning the Best Picture Oscar two days and six hours from now.

Here we go anyway…

Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire. Conflicted Feelings Factor: So-so to moderate as I’ve never truly felt this film is a major-league home run. It’s a solid double — maybe a triple at best. And I hate, hate, hate that guy who plays the game show announcer. I hate his suit, his haircut…everything about him.

Best Director: Slumdog‘s Danny Boyle. Conflicted Feelings Factor: Hardly present. Boyle is a good fellow, knows his stuff, he did a good job. This is his year, let well enough alone.

Best Actor: The Wrestler‘s Mickey Rourke. Conflicted Feelings Factor: Absent. If Sean Penn wins, we’ll all survive and a very fine performance will have been honored. But it won’t feel right.

Best Actress: The Reader‘s Kate Winslet. Conflicted Feelings Factor: See the piece I posted an hour ago. Either way, I’m ready to let this be Kate’s time. I think we all feel this way.

Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight. Conflicted Feelings Factor: Strong. I’d honestly rather see Michael Shannon win for Revolutionary Road, in part because he’s great in that film, and in part because he’s here. I was extremely pissed off when Heath did what he did to himself, accidentally or otherwise, and I guess I haven’t quite gotten beyond that.

Best Supporting Actress: Vicky Cristina Barcelona‘s Penelope Cruz. Conflicted Feelings Factor: I’d be very happy to see this go to Doubt‘s Viola Davis.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire.

Best Original Screenplay: Andrew Stanton‘s WALL*E as an acknowledgement that it is and was somehow more than just the year’s best animated feature. Conflicted Feelings Factor: It would be lovely to see the prize go to Frozen River.

Best Art Direction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button because it was well handled as far as it went, and Paramount at least needs those tech awards as a return for their $150 million investment.

Best Cinematography: Slumdog Millionaire, Anthony Dod Mantle.

Best Costume Design: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. The rule of thumb is that any period film involving exotic ruffled duds tends to win on this score, which would point to The Duchess. I still say Button because it cost so much and people feel sorry for Paramount having shelled out so much and come up empty on the Best Picture front.

Best Film Editing: Slumdog Millionaire.

Best Makeup: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.

Best Musical Score: Slumdog Millionaire.

Best Original Song: “Jai Ho” from Slumdog Millionaire.

Best Sound Editing: The Dark Knight. Compensation award.

Best Sound Mixing: The Dark Knight. Ditto.

Best Visual Effects: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. No contest.

Best Animated Feature: WALL*E.

Best Foreign Language Feature: Waltz With Bashir.

Best Documenary Feature: Man on Wire.

Best Documentary Short: Dunno, clueless, pass.

Best Short Film (animated): La Maison en Petits Cubes.

Best Short Film (Live Action): Toyland. Holocaust factor, naturally.

Ron Rosenbaum‘s blistering anti-Reader piece on Slate (“Don’t Give an Oscar to The Reader“) went up on Monday, February 9th. Three days later , on 2.12.09, Rod Lurie‘s similar criticism piece (“The Holocaust Revisionism of Hollywood”) appeared on the Huffington Post. Five days later — Tuesday, 2.17 — the Oscar balloting deadline arrived and the voting issue became moot.

Nonetheless it’s taken Harvey Weinstein, Reader director Stephen Daldry, Reader screenwriter David Hare and producer Donna Gigliotti until today, 2.20 — eight days after the Lurie article, 11 days after the Rosenbaum — to send out a press release arguing with “fringe criticism” of their film.

If you’re going to wait this long, guys, why even bother? If you want to try and shape a debate, you need to retort hours later, or certainly no more than a day or so after the initial blow has been struck. Waiting 11 days is like waiting 11 weeks.

“We are proud of The Reader and everyone who made this film,” theri statement begins. “It is outrageous and insulting that people have called it a ‘Holocaust denial film.’ While entitled to their opinion, these allegations are fueled by ignorance and a misunderstanding of the material, and are based on unsubstantiated arguments.

“The greatest films elicit great debate and conversation. Unfortunately, the recent attacks on The Reader have generated debates, not about the substance of the film, but about what people believe to be the intent of the filmmakers. To take a piece of art that was constructed with the hard work of many talented people and turn it into propaganda is plain ignorant.

“No one is suggesting that The Reader must be beloved by everyone. On the contrary, there is always room for criticism. If one does not like the film that is one matter; but to project one’s personal bias on the filmmaker’s objective is wrong and something we could no longer remain silent about.

“The Reader is a film about how a generation of Germans lived in the shadow of one of the greatest crimes of the 20th century. Some detractors of the film have said that it is a piece of Holocaust revisionism; however Holocaust survivors, children of Holocaust survivors and a Nobel Peace Prize winner feel differently.

“Elie Wiesel, a Holocaust survivor and Nobel Peace Prize winner, has praised The Reader as ‘a film that deals powerfully with Germany’s reconciliation with its past.’ He said that ‘it is not about the Holocaust; it is about what Germany did to itself and its future generations.’ He called it ‘a faithful adaptation of an important book, that is still relevant today as genocide continues to be practiced around the world.’

“Abe Foxman, the ADL National Director and a Holocaust survivor agrees with Mr. Wiesel. ‘As we move further away from the Holocaust we must continue to tell the story of the Shoah in ways that will reach and touch new generations. The Reader, which takes place in post-WWII Germany, clearly portrays the horrors of the Holocaust, not visually but intellectually and emotionally. There is no doubt to what Kate Winslet’s character, Hannah Schmitz, did during the war. Her guilt is given. At her trial her crimes are portrayed in detail and she is brought to justice for them. The Reader is not meant to be a factual re-telling of the Holocaust; for that we have documentaries. Rather it is about guilt and responsibility that is as important for our times as it was for post-war Germans.’

“Unfortunately,” the statement concludes, “we live in a world where Holocaust denial still exists. Just a few weeks ago, the Vatican made headlines when the Pope lifted the excommunication of a Catholic Bishop who made statements denying the full extent of the Holocaust. In today’s world, with the recent genocides in Darfur, Cambodia, Rwanda and Bosnia, there are enough signs that bigotry still exists to an alarming degree. Denial and revisionist history of some of the greatest atrocities of our time can only lead to further violence and horrors.

“The Reader is a film that has sparked controversy and it is not something we are shying away from. In this day and age we need healthy debate but what some have written is mudslinging at its worst and we think it is time to rise above it.”

Mr. Rosenbaum and Mr. Lurie — the floor is yours. That is, if you still care at this point.