There is a place in the world for big-concept Roland Emmerich movies with lots of special effects that critics will most likely hate. You have to be a grown-up and accept this. Be a man, take the pain. There was the alien mother ship the size of Newport, Rhode Island, hovering over the White House in Independence Day. That scene in The Patriot with the cannonball blowing a guy’s head off. Those scenes of cataclysmic global disaster in The Day After Tomorrow. The scary saber-tooth tigers in 10,000 B.C. (out March 7, 2008). The latest sign off is an end-of-days movie called 2012 that may cost $200 million to make. Big paychecks all around.

Michael Clayton “is the best it can be in that genre. But there’s a ceiling on that genre. If it has a shot at [winning] anything, it’s best supporting actress with Tilda Swinton.” — George Clooney speaking to Time profiler Joel Stein in the 2.20 issue.

Also: “I thought Daniel Day Lewis had the best performance of the year. Then I saw La Vie En Rose. Marion Cotillard does an old person trying to be young, instead of what everyone does — a young person trying to be old. It’s a stunning performance. But there is no way Daniel Day Lewis won’t win. For me, it’s like being Hillary Clinton. If it weren’t for Barack Obama, it would have been a very good year [for her].”

Certain filmmakers didn’t get back to me for my N.Y. Post Oscar Sunday piece, delaying progress and keeping me up until 1 ayem as I tried to slap it together based on quotes I had in time for this morning’s deadline. Didn’t make it, had to crash, woke up early, etc. I have to finish the damn thing this morning so no more posts until I do.

The passed-along allegation is that the central idea in Michel Gondry‘s Be Kind Rewind (New Line, 2.22) rips off an eight year-old episode of The Amanda Show on Nicholodeon. I have no dog in this hunt.

MTV’s Josh Horowitz and his creative tech team have thrown together a reasonably ambitious short in which Horowitz has inserted himself into the five Best Picture contenders as a kind of Oscar host. They’ve also thrown in a cameo by MTV’s Kurt Loder. Going for broke here. Not your father’s typical MTV report.

Coming Soon’s Edward Douglas has posted his final Oscar prediction column. Absolutely no surprises (he doesn’t even mention the apparent surge of Juno and Michael Clayton support in the Best Picture category) except for predicting Cate Blanchett to take the Best Supporting Actress Oscar, which I’m 90% convinced will go to Clayton‘s Tilda Swinton. “Hastiliy written,” he says, “but heavily researched. Granted, some of my picks are those who I think should win, but I did think this stuff out, even going against the favorite Juno for original screenplay.”

On 12.16.07 I wondered why Juno director Jason Reitman cast Ellen Page based on her sass and spirit “but with no regard for the fact that in the real world a young woman who looks like Page — midget-sized, scrawny, looking like a feisty 11 year-old with absolutely nothing about her that says ‘alluring breeding-age female’ — most likely wouldn’t exactly be fighting off the attentions of hormonally-crazed teenage boys, including nice-guy dweebs like Michael Cera‘s character.”

I was, of course, mocked and spitballed for saying this in the most respectful terms I could manage. I’m repeating my blurt nonetheless because I believe that fate, the Academy membership and the Movie Gods are not in the final analysis comfortable with the idea of a Best Actress winner being this eflin and pocket- sized, and therefore that the Best Actress Oscar will go to Away From Her‘s Julie Christie or (my personal favorite) La Vie en Rose‘s Marion Cotillard. I say this recognizing that there are many, many Juno lovers out there looking to show their support in some way, but I still say no.

The Envelope‘s Pete Hammond isn’t quite buying into the scenario of an upset Best Picture win (i.e., either the much- loved Michael Clayton or Juno slipping in due to the gnarly nihilist vote being split between No Country and There Will Be Blood), but he’s toying with the scenario regardless.

Uno, the Westminster Dog Show champ on 2.11.08.

Hammond is basically acknowledging that the talk is out there (as I have, as others have) but is saying in the final analysis that he’s not persuaded there’s enough talk to change his prediction about a No Country triumph.
“The tide — and the votes — are in, and anything other than the guilds and critics favorite, No Country for Old Men, would be a major upset,” he states.
“With Crash it was clear in talking to voters in the week leading up to the ceremony that a tidal wave of support was taking place. It was overwhelming and hard to believe, since Brokeback Mountain had been so dominant. But it was real.
“This year there appears to be reasonable levels of Best Picture support for multiple films, including Juno and especially Michael Clayton, even a fairly strong pro-There Will Be Blood faction, but most likely not enough for one or the other to overcome the leading advantage of No Country.
“Unless you believe, that is, in the kind of miracles that have been happening lately in Super Bowls, dog shows, presidential primaries, etc.
“Clearly, hope reigns supreme over at Fox Searchlight, where they are chanting their mantra: ‘If it can happen to Uno, a lowly beagle who became numero uno in the Westminster Dog Show, it can happen to Juno!’
“Or at Warner Bros., where their awards consultants are shouting: ‘Yes We Can! If the country can vote for Barack Obama, the academy can choose our Clooney drama!”‘”

Film Jerk’s Edward Havens has his annual Oscar handicap articles up. Stats, stats, and more stats. The Best Picture article is of particular interest. Havens predicts No Country but personally favors Michael Clayton among the five nominees and picks The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford as the best of all the ’07 films.

David Fincher is attached to direct a film based on Black Hole, the Charles Burns graphic novel about a sexually transmitted virus among teens that causes strange growths and tears in the skin. AIDS yuckfest! Plan B and producer Kevin Messick are developing for Fincher, Paramount Pictures and MTV Films. Beowulf screenwriters Roger Avary and Neil Gaiman wrote a Black Hole screenplay in 2006. Alexandre Aja (The Hills Have Eyes, High Tension) was previously attached to direct.

I just ran out onto Melrose to see the lunar eclipse. It’s something like 50% or 55% dark now, but the moon is so low in the L.A. sky right now you need to be out in the open and looking east without any buildings or trees obscuring.

I’m saying nothing about this Rec Show article, which is a full journalistic equivalent of an intimate act performed upon Steven Spielberg. Key statement: “Spielberg is to movies what the Beatles are to music. You can follow in his footsteps, but you cannot top him.” It’s mostly YouTube video clips, so I don’t know what there is to mull over.