The USA as many of us have known it will be set on the road to ruin tonight. Because a Bernie Sanders victory in New Hampshire (followed by a Bernie-Biden victory in South Carolina on 2.19 — thanks, POCs!) will seriously harm the sensible-liberal-moderate Pete Buttigieg brand, which is the only brand that can beat Trump in November, and therefore a Trump victory will be locked down because Bernie can’t beat him.

Typewriter Joe might be able to defeat The Beast, but after tonight he’ll be all but finished. Michael Bloomberg is the only hope right now because you know he’ll keep spending and pushing — he’s indefatigable. But I’m really not kidding. The transformation of the US of A (as many of us have known it) into Trump Nation between January ’21 and January ’25 will be ruinous beyond words. And the journey begins tonight.

If Pete can nudge aside Bernie in N.H. (which he probably can’t manage), there’s at least a chance. But he won’t. All hail the spirit and precedent of Jeremy Corbyn and Gregg Stillson! The bad guys have this! And I’m not just talking about Bernie bruhs and Trump-worshipping bumblefucks, but also Khmer Rouge wokesters and cancel culture fanatics. Together they comprise a perfect storm of catastrophe.

If Bloomberg can’t manage the next-to-impossible, the only way out is for Trump to drop dead of a heart attack or a stroke. Or for fate to (ahem) otherwise intervene. Who would be honestly sorry to see that animal breathe his last?

I was initially excited to hear of ZeroZeroZero (Amazon Prime, 3.6), a cocaine-trafficking miniseries costarring Andrea Riseborough, Dane DeHaan and Gabriel Byrne. Mainly because Stefano Sollima, ace helmer of Sicario: Day of the Soldado, is a creative contributor. Then I read further and realized he’s only one of the directors. Two others are Janus Metz (Borg vs. McEnroe, True Detective) and Pablo Trapero (The Clan, White Elephant).

Boilerplate: “Brought to you by the Gomorrah guys, ZeroZeroZero follows the lives of several individuals and cartel members who are involved in a worldwide, multibillion-dollar drug-smuggling ring that stretches from Italy to Mexico and the United States.”

I’ve never seen Elem Klimov‘s Come and See (’85), which is commonly regarded as one of the most searing antiwar films ever made. So I’m naturally looking forward to Janus Films’ theatrical restoration of this Russian-made film, which was Klimov’s last. It will play at Manhattan’s Film Forum between 2.21 and 3.3. I’d naturally like to see it in Los Angeles, but it doesn’t seem to have a local booking.

With a new 2K restoration you’d also presume that a Criterion Bluray would be in the pipeline, but I can’t find hide nor hair. I’ve done some basic searches…zip. A publicist friend says it’s viewable via TCM On Demand — haven’t been able to find it there either. I’m sure this is all my fault, and not that of distributor Janus Films.

All I know is that I’ve been repeatedly admonished by Tatyana for not seeing it, and the reprimands aren’t going to stop until I do.

I don’t remember very much about The Last Tycoon (’76) except that it stunk. Okay, maybe that’s a little harsh but but it certainly seemed inert. Robert DeNiro was almost comically miscast as coolly arrogant studio exec Monroe Stahr, whom original author F. Scott Fitzgerald had based upon legendary MGM exec Irving Thalberg.

De Niro played Thalberg as a relatively uncultured New York street guy (i.e., Travis Bickle wearing nice suits) with those Lower-East-Side Italian vowels of his. The real-deal Thalberg came from Brooklyn and never attended college, but I’ve always read he was a man of discipline and exactitude — a classy gent with a highly concentrated mind. I didn’t believe DeNiro’s “Travis” Thalberg for an instant. That idiot grin of his was pure loony Bickle. For what it’s worth I enjoyed the two or three scenes that De Niro shares with Jack Nicholson, who plays a commie union leader.

How could a film directed by Elia Kazan, based on a 1941 Fitzgerald novel, adapted by Harold Pinter, produced by Sam Spiegel, scored by Maurice Jarre and shot by Victor J. Kemper…how could a movie made by such an ace-level team turn out badly? But it did. It just sat there.

The Last Tycoon was DeNiro’s first shortfaller. He’d previously made five excellent films (Bang The Drum Slowly, Mean Streets, The Godfather, Part II, Taxi Driver, 1900). After Tycoon he starred in another failure (Scorsese’s New York, New York) but then rebounded with The Deer Hunter, Raging Bull, True Confessions, The King of Comedy, Once Upon A Time in America and Falling in Love.

At 4 pm yesterday afternoon Tatyana and I arrived at West Hollywood’s Soho House for Neon’s Parasite party (telecast viewing + after-party). The cheering was ecstatic after all four Parasite wins, of course, but especially when the historic Best Picture win was announced by Jane Fonda. Excellent vibe, scrumptious food, free drinks, great wifi, not overly crowded, plenty of flat screens and electrical wall outlets.

Thanks to Lea Yardum and Colleen Camp for their generous hospitality and efficiency.

The show ended around 8:15 pm, give or take. I packed up the two computers, and we began to roam around. Soho House is quite a large and sprawling place, as some of you know. Views of WeHo and Beverly Hills to die for, etc. Plus that dramatic grand staircase. Plus several guests smoking in the outdoor balcony area. (Who smokes?) We decided to pack it in around 10:10 pm — six hours felt like enough. In the sheltered ground-level parking lot there was a huge crowd waiting to enter as we departed.

A friend who arrived late reports that Bong Joon-ho and Team Parasite (actors, producers) made their triumphant entrance around 12:45 am, and that the reception was “truly mad.” They came up the staircase to exuberant cheers and hugs, and then paraded around the party holding the four Oscars aloft, and received more whoops and cheers on the small stage in the main dining room (i.e., where the bar is).

Vuyo Dyasi, Bong Joon-ho.

If Bernie Sanders wins the Democratic nomination, our deranged and grotesque authoritarian crime-boss president will almost certainly be re-elected, and this country will be saddled with a political and cultural tragedy of increasing proportions.

This is not theory, not maybe — it’s real. How can Democrats be so rock stupid as to not see the tragedy that’s currently unfolding and taking shape? The republic is splitting, cracking apart. The end of civic sanity and reason is nigh. And it’s like we’re all covered in a kind of slow-motion glue.

The untested Sanders (a virtual babe in the woods on the national stage) is electoral death. He won’t just get knifed and bloodied by the Trump smear machine — he’ll probably get creamed a la Jeremy Corbyn and George McGovern.

Can anything prevent this nightmare? Not if African-American voters have anything to say about it, and of course they will starting with the South Carolina primary.

Pete Buttigieg recently connected with moderate suburban Iowans, and could theoretically do the same countrywide in the general. But AAs (particularly your older-demo homophobes) are apparently determined to sit on their hands rather than support him. (One more time — thanks, guys!) And of course Bernie bruhs and other progressives hate Pete’s guts. Except Pete or someone like him — a sensible, practical-minded, non-scary moderate liberal or left-centrist — represents the only shot at beating Trump. Who else could become the prime banner-carrier for this kind of approach at this point? Biden, Warren and Klobuchar are too low in the polls — they have no serious heat. Ditto Bloomberg and Steyer. It’s down to Pete v. Bernie, except Bernie is more or less Corbyn.

Filed on Sunday, 2.9 by London Times correspondent Josh Glancy: “At a ‘politics and eggs’ event on Friday morning in Manchester, New Hampshire, Bernie Sanders faced a friendly crowd, who applauded his familiar spiel about the ills of Wall Street, Donald Trump and big pharma. But one voter, Lenny Glynn, had a question.

“’There’s a lot of people in this room that share your anger, your anxiety and your rage,’ Glynn said. ‘But there’s a question in a lot of our minds. Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the British Labour Party, who is very similar ideologically and politically to you, just took them to the worst defeat they’ve had in half a century. How can you assure us that you would not face the same onslaught?”

N.Y. Times columnist Frank Bruni, filed on 2.8: “You can analyze Sanders and assess his prospects in terms of how liberal many of his positions are: the end of private health insurance, the dismantling of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency, free tuition at public colleges regardless of a student’s economic circumstances. By that yardstick he’s Corbyn, and, in my view, a hell of a general-election risk.”

Tip of the hat to Collider‘s Scott Mantz for being 91.67% correct in his Gold Derby balliot, and particularly for having won a $40 bet from Collider‘s Jeff Sneider over last night’s Parasite triumph. Below is a 1.29 Collider chit-chat between Mantz, Sneider and Perri Nemiroff. Start at 6:15.

Perri Nemiroff: “I do think that the top two on many of the ballots are going to be 1917 and Parasite. There’s little to no criticism on those compared to some of the others…”
Jeff Sneider: “You’ve gotta be crazy! ‘Little to no criticism about Parasite‘? You’re wrong. That’s a fact — you’re wrong.”
Nemiroff “In the voting community. I know you didn’t like it as much as most.”
Scott Mantz: “But most did.”
Nemiroff “Especially when you compare the critics of Parasite to the criticism we’ve seen about some of the other films. They’re much more divisive and..”
Jeff Sneider: “What film had the most criticism last year? What film?”
Scott Mantz: “Green Book.”
Sneider: “Did it win Best Picture?”
Mantz: “Yes.”

Sneider: “Scott, you just said you think Bong’s gonna win Best Director?”
Mantz: “Yes.”
Sneider: “And you think Parasite‘s gonna win Best Picture?
Mantz: “Yes.”
Sneider: “And you think it’s gonna win Best International Feature?”
Mantz: “Of course!
Sneider: “So you’re just going all in on Parasite?
Mantz: “I’m all in.”
Nemiroff: “That’s a dangerous guesstimate.”
Sneider: “I would bet you any amount of money it’s not gonna win all three of these awards.”

[$20 is wagered; later on it’s doubled to $40]

Nemiroff: “You’re in so much trouble now.
Sneider: “A bad bet.”
Nemiroff: “Parasite could be Best Picture or Best Director in addition to Best Int’l Features, but it’s not gonna win all three.”

“Americans are always worried that when we lose our freedom it’ll look like the movie Red Dawn, with tanks in the streets. That’s not how a republic ends. We keep the names on the institutions, [but] we change what’s inside. We still have trials — we just don’t have witnesses. We still subpoena people — they just don’t show up. There’s still an EPA — it just works for the coal companies now. It’s like the way TV channels sometimes completely change formats but keep the name? MTV — music television — hasn’t had music videos for years. The Learning Channel has no learning — it has Honey Boo-Boo and American’s Worst Tattoos and Family By The Ton.

“When Rome stopped being a republic, it didn’t stop having a Senate. And neither have we. It’s just more like student government now. Because that’s what dictators do. Russia has a pretend parliament. So does China. And North Korea.”

“If You Think It’s Bad for Mainstream Democrats Now, Just Wait“, posted on 2.6 by Jonathan Chait:

“It is always darkest, John McCain used to say, before it gets totally black. So it is for the American center-left right now. Bernie Sanders is currently favored to win the nomination, a prospect that would make Donald Trump a heavy favorite to win reelection, and open the possibility of a Corbyn-esque wipeout.

“While Sanders has not expanded beyond a minority of the party, he has consolidated support of the party’s left wing, and while its mainstream liberal wing is split between numerous contenders, it is hard to see how the situation is likely to improve soon. Indeed, it could get worse, much worse.

While I don’t happen to personally agree that Parasite deserved the Best Picture Oscar (if I was an Academy member I would’ve voted for The Irishman), I respect what happened last night. The fervor, I mean, was obviously strong and Bong Joon-ho ruled the roost with four Oscars — Best Picture, Best International Feature, Best Director and Best Original Screenplay.

I am, however, bothered by the double shot overlap between Best Picture and Best Int’l Feature.

So here’s what seems to have happened, and please correct me if I’m wrong on some level. Even with the preferential ballot dynamic, which meant that a clear majority of Parasite Best Picture supporters didn’t necessarily manifest on the first round of vote counting, most Academy members decided to simultaneously give the Best Picture Oscar AND the Best International Feature Oscar to Parasite.

They didn’t consider the double-shot overlap factor. They mentally compartmentalized, and in so doing refused to consider the overall equation. Not enough of them said “as I strongly believe in Parasite for Best Picture” — which is totally fine, of course — “then I’m going to spread the love around by giving the Best Int’l Feature Oscar to the absolutely deserving Les Miserables or Pain and Glory.“

Instead an apparent (or preferential ballot-ized) majority said to themselves “an overlapping double-shot of Parasite love works for me! Parasite is sooo overwhelmingly good and sooo much better than Pain and Glory or Les Miserables that it deserves both Oscars.”

Am I allowed to say this way of voting is highly questionable? And that the Academy should take steps to prevent it from happening again?

How would you feel about this if you were Ladj Ly or Pedro Almodovar?

Additional question: To what extent (if any) was Parasite’s overwhelming triumph attributable to lingering resentment among the diversity-above-all crowd (i.e., the New Academy Kidz) over Green Book’s Best Picture win last year? How many Parasite supporters said to themselves “above and beyond my genuine affection for Parasite, this will teach those older-white-person supporters a lesson, or at least will balance things out”?

An excerpt from Owen Gleiberman’s post-Oscar assessment piece, filed this morning:

8:27 pm: Parasite wins the Best Picture Oscar? So it’s won (1) Best Picture, (2) Best Director, (3) Best Original Screenplay and (4) Best International Feature? Look, guys…c’mon. Oh, forget it. You can’t fight City Hall. But it’s lopsided. I respectfully believe that The Irishman is a much better film overall. Much. Indisputably. But what’s done is done. History has been made. So how did 1917 win so conclusively elsewhere (especially with the guilds) and yet lose the Big One? Sasha Stone, please explain.

8:18 pm: Jordan Ruimy to HE: “You’re at the right party tonight.”

8:12 pm: And of course, Renee Zellweger takes the Best Actress Oscar. Her acceptance speech is…well, Joaquin’s was deeper, stronger. Who’s the large girthy guy sitting next to her? Thin gray hair. Just asking.

8:05 pm: It’s now time for Joaquin Phoenix to accept the Best Actor Oscar. This a great speech he’s giving. Against this or that species, race or nation choosing to dominate and exploit other species, races and species. I heard the words, especially about how we’re at our best when we give people a second chance. To those few and far between readers who’ve strayed or gone cold on Hollywood Elsewhere (and you know who you are) — give me a second chance! Come back to the fold! And don’t eat hamburgers!

8 pm: The late F.X Feeney should have been in the death reel. His unbridled love for cinema lifted so many boats.

7:51 pm: The possible Best Director upset is upon us — and it happens! 1917‘s Sam Mendes goes down, and Bong Joon-ho takes it! BJH: “I would like to get a Texas chainsaw and share this Oscar with all of my estemeed co-nominees”, or words to that effect. Very classy and gracious fellow.

7:42 pm: And now for the Best Musical Score Oscar, which naturally goes to Joker‘s Hildur Gudnadottir. Well deserved, totally forecast. And now teh Best Song Oscar goes to Elton and Bernie. Again, widely predicted.

7:30 pm: Indefatigable, sausage-fingered, purple-jacketed Elton John banging out “I’m Gonna Love Me Again” on a beautiful red piano. Except he’s wearing thick-soled silver-sides — a variation on your dreaded whiteside footwear. Correction: Yellowsides and pinksides.

7:23 pm: As totally and universally expected, Parasite takes the Best International Feature Oscar. Bong Joon-ho: “I’m ready to drink tonight.”

7:16 pm: Ray Romano gets bleeped for saying an eff word. Bombshell wins the Best Makeup Oscar — totally expected. Basically for making Charlize Theron look like Megyn Kelly.

7:14 pm: In a surprise, 1917 takes Best Visual Effects Oscar instead of Avengers: Endgame.

7 pm: Tom Hanks is wearing the same kind of tux as Brad Pitt — black velvet/valour jacket, medium-gray slacks. Announcing that the Academy museum, which just invited press people to look around, won’t open for another 11 months, or on 12./14.20.

6:50 pm: Will Ferrell and Julia Louis Dreyfuss handing out best Cinematography Oscar. To absolutely no one’s surprise, 1917’s Roger Deakins takes it. Best Film Editing Oscar. Ferrell and Dreyfuss’s “pretending to be dumbfucks” routine is…well, harmless. Two Ford v. Ferrari guys win for Best Editing. A bald guy and a slender, bearded guy from South America…congrats!

6:40 pm: Ford v. Ferrari wins for sound editing – 1917 wins for sound mixing. Or something like that. Designing, mixing, shifting, spritzing. Split vote.

6:30 pm: Love that Eminem voice! I’ve missed it! He’s 47 with a belly now, and his black jeans are dropping below his butt cheeks, ’90s-style. Martin Scorsese is squinting….waiting for “it” to happen.

6:16 pm: “Give the Best Supporting Actress Oscar to Laura Dern” time has arrived. And she gets it. No offense but you’re not allowed to use the word “magic” when speaking of the prowess of creative collaborators. Kudos to Dern for delivering a heartfelt, fresh-sounding acceptance speech, which had to have been difficult given that she’s been winning winning winning for weeks now.

6:09 pm: American Factory (i.e., sucking up to the Obamas) wins Best Feature Documentary. Yeah! The Skateboarding Is Hard If You’re A Girl (or something like that) short doc wins. I voted for this on my ballot!

6:02 pm: Chrissy Metz has great pipes. Another in the plus-size cavalcade. Nice choral background behind her.

5:55 pm: Best Production Design Oscar goes to Once Upon A Time in Hollywood. Hollywood Elsewhwere approves, claps, high fives. The Kristen Wigg-Mrs Paul Thomas Anderson patter sucks…not funny. Not even a little bit. And Little Women wins Best Costume Design. Expected, predicted.

5:47 pm: I didn’t vote for The Neighbor’s Window on my Oscar ballot. Considered it, thought better.

5:37pm: Keanu and Diane. Great hat, gleaming white teeth, nice complexion. Best Original Screenplay. Keaton: “I’m gonna open this. No, no…not yet, that’s what I mean.” Parasite will win, of course. The Oscar goes to Bong Joon-ho, and the entire Parasite party crowd goes “whooooaaaaaaaa!!!” Hollywood Elsewhere approves except for letting the fired maid inside while the family is drunk, etc.

Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar is expected to go to JoJo Rabbit. I’m sorry but I hate that little kid — I have from the get-go. Taika Watiti wins for JoJo! Totally predicted.

Timothy Chalamet‘s “tux” looks like one of those outfits that gas station guys used to wear in the ”40s and ’50s.

5:28 pm: Josh Gad (the latest plus-size award presenter) announces a musical number.

5:21 pm: Best Animated Feature Oscar won by Toy Story 4 — predicted, expected, no surprise. Will there by any surprises this evening? The Gold Derby experts are hoping for this but don’t count on it. Hair Love (which I voted for on my party ballot) wins Best Animated Short.

5:13 pm: Best Supporting Actor time. Brad Pitt waits calmly, patiently…no worries. Nice tux — black velvet jacket, dark gray pants. 45 seconds to deliver acceptane speech, “which is 45 seconds more than the Senate gave John Bolton [last] week.” Best line: “Once Upon a Time In Hollywood…indeed.” Or “you bet.” or “yup, that’s me.” Or “whoda thunk it?”

5:10 pm: Conversational noise levels at Soho House viewing party are semi-defeaning. I’m sitting on a small gray stool in front of a 70-incher. Steve Martin, Chris Rock co-hosting (for a while). Martin: “No screw-ups this year because the Academy has switched to the new Iowa caucus app”…good one.

Director friend who finally saw Parasite two or three days ago: “I thought Parasite started off quite well. It was intriguing, darkly comedic, and well-paced. Even when it got into the house for an extended period of time, I never felt bored.

“As I was watching the film, I started wondering ‘where have I seen this kind of film before?’ Where have I seen the class struggle play out in this kind of suspenseful fashion? I thought first of Akira Kurosawa’s kidnapping drama, High and Low. The rich old man on top of the hill overlooking the squalor down below and the kidnapper who resides there, who infiltrates his life sanf wants to take away his spoils…but that was much too serious a film while Parasite was definitely more satirical and comedic.

“Then it hit me…of course, Bunuel! The great Don Luis was always mocking the upper classes using his acerbic wit and absurdist point of view.

Here are some Bunuel homages/references from Parasite:

1. Viridiana. To me, this is the most obvious one. The Mother figure, like Viridiana, is described as “simple” and also “gullible”. The most visually telling scene is when the rich family goes camping leaving the servant family to the house where they of course make a mess of things. This is shown in Viridiana when the peasants take over the household of the dead Uncle and begin to defile it (with the infamous Last Supper scene).

2. Exterminating Angel. The husband kept in the basement seems a very strange plot device but that’s what sets in motion the entire second half of the film. In Bunuel’s film it’s the bourgeoise and upper class folks who can’t find their way out the house and soon begin to resort to their basest natures. This is what happens to the poor husband who seems to accept his place in the house and can’t leave either (though he’s more restricted by his prison-like existence). When he does “escape” at the end it’s to wreck vengeance but not on the wealthy patriarch (who he seems to strangely worship) but on the conniving family members.

3. Diary of a Chambermaid. Although less known as his more audacious films, this one has a direct plot parallel with Jeanne Moreau as the lower class maid taking a job with a rich family to manipulate her way to a higher station in life by working for a wealthy family of “hypocrites and perverts” (not my quote).

4. Discreet Charm of the Bourgeoisie. This would be a comparative film in overall tone before it goes off the rails in the final act. I suppose just as Bunuel couldn’t help himself with his subversive atheistic jabs at the Church, Boon Jong Ho can’t help himself but to revel in gory confrontations.

I will agree that the one sloppy bit of plot construction is letting the fired maid back in the house during the rainstorm. That could’ve been fixed very easily but without it there would be no third act…still, could have been an easy fix.

The only possible surprise this evening would be Parasite‘s Bong Joon-ho taking the Best Director Oscar rather than 1917‘s Sam Mendes. That’s the only serious upset that seems feasible. Otherwise everything has been fully figured, sussed, estimated…next to no suspense at all.

Jordan Ruimy and I talked it out just after 10 am this morning.

Below are Ben Zausmer‘s (Oscarmath) predictions, which are more or less the same predictions that everyone else is touting.

Again, the mp3

Posted yesterday by David Poland.

Best Picture / 1917. Best Director / Sam Mendes or Bong Joon-ho. Best Actor / Joaquin Phoenix. Best Actress / Renee Zellweger. Best Supporting Actor / Brad Pitt. Best Supporting Actress / Laura Dern. Best Original Screenplay / Parasite. Best Adapted Screenplay / Jojo Rabbit. (Seriously?)

Best Animated Feature / Toy Story 4. Best Documentary Feature / American Factory or Honeyland. Best International Feature / Parasite. Best Production Design / Once Upon A Time in Hollywood. Best Cinematography / Roger Deakins, 1917. Best Original Score / Hildur Gudnadóttir, Joker. Best Original Song / Elton John and Bernie Taupin‘s “I’m Gonna Love Me Again.” Best Film Editing / 1917, Parasite or Ford v. Ferrari. Best Visual Effects / Avengers: Endgame.

That’s all I have time for now….getting dressed for Parasite viewing party. The weather is cool, raining, bone-chilling.