The only possible surprise this evening would be Parasite‘s Bong Joon-ho taking the Best Director Oscar rather than 1917‘s Sam Mendes. That’s the only serious upset that seems feasible. Otherwise everything has been fully figured, sussed, estimated…next to no suspense at all.

Jordan Ruimy and I talked it out just after 10 am this morning.

Below are Ben Zausmer‘s (Oscarmath) predictions, which are more or less the same predictions that everyone else is touting.

Again, the mp3

Posted yesterday by David Poland.

Best Picture / 1917. Best Director / Sam Mendes or Bong Joon-ho. Best Actor / Joaquin Phoenix. Best Actress / Renee Zellweger. Best Supporting Actor / Brad Pitt. Best Supporting Actress / Laura Dern. Best Original Screenplay / Parasite. Best Adapted Screenplay / Jojo Rabbit. (Seriously?)

Best Animated Feature / Toy Story 4. Best Documentary Feature / American Factory or Honeyland. Best International Feature / Parasite. Best Production Design / Once Upon A Time in Hollywood. Best Cinematography / Roger Deakins, 1917. Best Original Score / Hildur Gudnadóttir, Joker. Best Original Song / Elton John and Bernie Taupin‘s “I’m Gonna Love Me Again.” Best Film Editing / 1917, Parasite or Ford v. Ferrari. Best Visual Effects / Avengers: Endgame.

That’s all I have time for now….getting dressed for Parasite viewing party. The weather is cool, raining, bone-chilling.

Jo Van Fleet won a well-dserved Oscar for playing a tough, bitter, white-haired bordello madam in Elia Kazan’s East of Eden (’55). By today’s standards she could be in her 60s or 70s but Van Fleet was only 39 during principal photography. Excellent makeup or something. Roughly five years later the 44-year-old Van Fleet played an 89-year-old matriarch in Kazan’s Wild River (’60).

It was a travesty, by the way, that Kazan was up for Best Director while the film itself wasn’t Best Picture nominated. The 1955 Best Picture five were Marty (which won), Love Is a Many-Splendored Thing (tepid interracial romance drama), Mister Roberts (definitely hasn’t aged well — one of John Ford’s stinkers), Picnic (steady-as-she-goes, well-acted small-town drama, based on the William Inge play) and The Rose Tattoo (Tennessee Williams having adapted his own play, which also costarred Jo Van Fleet).

East of Eden was better than all five 1955 nominees put together, and still is.

Okay, that’s it — Burger King has taken up permanent residence in the HE shithouse.

Photo courtesy of Variety‘s Guy Lodge

The Gay Men’s Choir of Los Angeles was doing great (the best moment of the show) until they tipped into Laura Dern mania.

It would be a positive thing, I feel, if this country could somehow adopt the Bernie Sanders program by gradually shifting into a kind of Denmark- or Finland-styled socialism — i.e, a benevolent system in which corporations and the obscenely rich would be taxed at higher, Dwight D. Eisenhower-level rates while at the same time providing social services that Americans deeply need (Medicare for all, free or inexpensive college, forgiving much of the college debt) in exchange for higher taxes.

This will never happen, of course, because Bernie is not running for King. If he’s somehow elected President he might be able to nudge things leftward, slightly, but that’s all. But he can’t win, of course. Bernie capturing the Democratic nomination will be a catastrophe, and The Beast will have four more years.

Sanders is not a “socialist” — he’s a left-leaning social Democrat, which shouldn’t scare anyone. The night before last Chris Matthews mentioned Castro-styled leftist firing squads in Central Park, which was funny but in a strange way brave. Because at least he was admitting to an old-shoe prejudice that is undeniably rooted in historical precedent — successful hard-left 20th Century revolutions did result in executions in Russia (Bolshevilks vs. “white’ Russians), China, Cuba and Cambodia (Khmer Rouge).

And hinterland Trumpsters are weeds in the garden — an angry, malicious and destructive social cancer. Any thinking person who doesn’t admit that the country would be a much better place if they were to suddenly disappear is simply being dishonest.

I understand the trite thinking about Pete Buttigieg and Michael Bloomberg being height-challenged as far as Presidency is concerned. Pete is presumed to be 5’8″ — Bloomberg has claimed the same but is suspected to be closer to 5’7″ or even 5’6″. American voters haven’t elected a president shorter than six feet since Jimmy Carter (who was between 5’9 and 5’10”) in 1976.

Obviously either candidate would look small on a debate stage with the 6’2″ Donald Trump. (The 6’3″ claim is bullshit.) But you also need to compare Trump’s repugnant obesity to the fact that Pete has a 24-Hour Fitness physique with washboard abs.

Typical voter: “Big and obese with dyed blonde viking hair and an orange tan vs. mid-sized and in great shape with a Richard Nixon five o’clock shadow, especially above the lip. I feel better about bloated and grotesque, frankly, because everyone I know has bulldog jowls along with a sizable belly overhang. When you go outside the cities we’re a nation of sea lions…be honest. I don’t trust trim physiques. They seem un-American on some level.”

Buttigieg on Bernie mantra: “We’re also facing the most divisive president in modern times. Which is why I’m equally concerned with a message [from Bernie bruhs] that says if you’re not for a revolution then you must be for the status quo. I think that equation leaves most people out.”

On Bernie attack about Buttigieg being supported by “40 billionaires”: “My campaign is where it is today because hundreds of thousands of individual donors…two-million-plus contributions that have averaged around $40 bucks. [On the other hand] I’m not a fan of the current [campaign] finance system, but Trump’s allies recently raised $25 million in one day. I’m insisting that we go into this fight with all the support we can get.”

I’ve begun to read Sam Wasson’s “The Big Goodbye: Chinatown and The Last Years of Hollywood.” It’s the story of how four semi-legendary fellows in the prime of their lives — director Roman Polanski, Jack Nicholson, screenwriter Robert Towne, producer Robert Evans — lucked into one of the most charmed collaborations ever, aided by an especially fertile time in Hollywood. It produced one of the finest ‘70s films and arguably the greatest dark-underbelly-of-Los Angeles noir ever made.

I’ve only read three or four chapters, but man, it’s delicious. Wasson’s writing is so choice, so lean and clean, so wise and sharp and cultivated to a fare-thee-well. But I have to say that I’m having trouble remembering the title. Probably because it doesn’t sound right. What constitutes a “big” goodbye (or for that matter a small one)? Goodbyes can be sad, long, drawn-out, tearful, sudden, etc. But I’ve never once contemplated the idea of a big one.

mooth,

As Indiewire‘s Anne Thompson noted yesterday, the 2020 Independent Spirit Awards “are really indie” this year. Translation: Joe and Jane Popcorn tend to pay scant attention to the day-before-the-Oscars Spirit Awards, but this year they’re really not going to care all that much.

As usual, Hollywood Elsewhere will be attending the Santa Monica Surfside Show under the Big White Tent, but my enthusiasm will be mitigated by the fact that the only Spirit Award nominee that really and truly knocked me out was A24 and Robert Eggers‘ The Lighthouse (and particularly Jarin Blaschke‘s black and white cinematography).

I’m also a serious fan of two other A24 nominees, Waves and The Farewell. And of course of Marriage Story, which will likely win the Best Picture trophy.

I also feel mixed about attending an event that will have a high percentage of Khmer Rouge wokester militants, as well as (I’m presuming) a fair amount of Pete Buttigieg dissers. But you have to try and get along or at least, you know, sidestep potential conflicts.

Here are some of Thompson’s predictions along with occasional HE comments:

BEST PICTURE / Will Win: Marriage Story / Spoiler: Uncut Gems / HE comment: Which of these two films is likely to linger more in the memory 10 or 20 years hence? Obviously Uncut Gems, despite the fact that it’s a deeply infuriating film to sit through, Adam Sandler‘s admirable performance aside.

BEST DIRECTOR / Will Win: Josh and Benny Safdie (Uncut Gems) / Spoiler: Alma Har’el (Honey Boy) / HE comment: The Safdies are frenzy junkies, fools for velocity, and definitely not that deep. Average popcorn inhalers felt the same about Uncut Gems as I did — it was a grueling endurance test. And I saw it twice. When a certain party got plugged at the very end, I said to myself “thank God.” Sandler’s performance was better than the film.

BEST MALE LEAD / Will Win: Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems) / Spoiler: Robert Pattinson (aka “RBatz”) (The Lighthouse) / HE comment: Agreed and approved.

BEST FEMALE LEAD / Will Win: Renée Zellweger (Judy) / Spoiler: Alfre Woodard (Clemency) / HE comment: Agreed and approved.

BEST SUPPORTING MALE / Will Win: Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse) / Spoiler: Shia LaBeouf (Honey Boy) / HE comment: Dafoe‘s salty dog bluster is brilliant. One of my absolute favorite ‘19 performances.

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE / Will Win: Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers) / HE comment: Those in the indie community who felt that Lopez’s failure to lasso an Oscar nomination was an unfair shafting will stand behind her today. My opinion is that her Hustlers performance was definitely decent but calm down.

Poor Orson Bean wasn’t struck and killed last night by “a car” in a Venice neighborhood. He was struck by two cars — one that “clipped” him and a second that finished him off **. (It’s called teamwork.)

The upside is that Bean lived a full life and enjoyed a vibrant career for the most part. An actor-comedian who arguably peaked in the ’50s, ’60s and ’70s (he was a regular on Mary Hartman, Mary Hartman and its spin-off Fernwood 2Nite), Bean’s signature performance (IMHO) was as the spirited if deluded Dr. Lester in Spike Jonze‘s Being John Malkovich (’99).

** Bean was walking near Venice Boulevard and Shell Avenue. “The car coming westbound did not see him and clipped him and he went down,” said Los Angeles Police Department Captain Brian Wendling. “A second vehicle was coming up, was distracted by people trying to slow him down and then looked up and then a second traffic collision occurred and that one was fatal.”

Bannon to Maher: “You’ve had three years to solve this problem, and now you’re divided.”

For the second time Republicans and Russia are going to “play” the Bernie bruhs like violins, and when Bernie captures the Democratic nomination (which appears likely)…well, most of us understand what will happen.

Bernie voters “had a bellyful of Clinton” in ’16, and so a significant percentage wound up sitting on their hands and/or voting for Trump, etc.

HE lament: The nightmare that we’re currently entangled in just keeps getting worse…growing and spreading like cancer.

Bernie can’t win.

Politically and culturally the N.Y. Times has lately become even more “Woke Central” than Indiewire, particularly, it seems, in recent coverage of the Oscars and the film industry.

They’ve been agitating for woke advancement and urging powerful white people to recognize that, more than anything else, whiteness represents an essentially evil and corrupt mindset as well as a soiled and heinous history (The 1619 Project) and is therefore burdened in the eyes of God and history with completely appropriate guilt — a stain that can never be washed out but can at least be atoned for by white people hanging their heads in shame and perhaps even hiding their faces from public view for the foreseeable future.

There can only be one way forward, and that is to keep the doors open to all gifted and worthy people of color (African American, Latino, Asian) while continuing to guilt-trip white people over under sideways down. Forget proportionality in terms of the industry workforce or general population demographics. The bottom line is that whiteness is believed to be deeply flawed and corrupt, particularly in the matter of older white males, and that the term “older white male” has become, in fact, an epithet. For some time now. Obviously.

And if you say anything other than “what’s happening today is obviously a necessary and approvable thing in terms of redressing the sins and injustices of the past”, you are not only an intransigent racist but part of the problem and therefore a prime candidate for possible cancellation. And so the smart move is to simply shut up.

Just to be on the safe side, Hollywood Elsewhere is taking this opportunity to reiterate its strong support of keeping doors open to all non-Anglo movers and shakers, and to reiterate my belief in the constant channelling of appropriate shame about my white heritage, and to never forget the ugly things that white people have been responsible for in decades and centuries past. I know I sound facetious to some extent, but at the same time I’m being 100% sincere — anyone who would deny the dark legacy of paleface rule in this country is living under a rock.

At the same time this is why Trump is going to win next November. Because a certain under-educated portion of 60.7% of the U.S. population doesn’t want to be guilt-tripped and finger-wagged over and over. They’re angry about the p.c. Torquemadas, and they’d rather live under an ugly rightwing monster who will leave them alone (i.e., won’t lambast them for their endemic failings) than deal with constant accusations and shaming and outrage-venting from the progressive left.

Ask any Average Joe to choose a present-day political analogy for “The Monsters Are Due on Maple Street,” the old Twilight Zone episode. Seven or eight out of ten will point to wokesters.