Having won three Best Supporting Actor awards (New York Film Critics Circle, Los Angeles Film Critics Association, Washington D.C. Area Film Critics Association) over the last week or so, Moonlight‘s Mahershala Ali clearly has the heat. Manchester By The Sea‘s Lucas Hedges and Hidden Figures‘ Kevin Costner are vying for the runner-up slot, but the real comer is Silence‘s Issey Ogata — the twitchy interrogator who all but steals Martin Scorsese‘s film from Andrew Garfield. (I’ve got Ogata in fifth place because he’s only just become a contender within the last couple of days — his candidacy needs time to build steam.) Hell or High Water‘s Jeff Bridges and Nocturnal Animals‘ Michael Shannon are also respectably contending.