This Peter Howell blog riff (basically a q & a with himself) underlines the general consensus that the last possible cliffhanger element in the March 5th Oscar telecast — i.e., will it be Cinderella Man‘s Paul Giamatti or Syriana‘s George Clooney taking the Best Supporting Actor Oscar? — has been settled. Clooney will win it because he’s the charming get-around Guy of the Moment, and has been credited with doing the most to launch the current wave of political films, and because Academy folks want to hand him something for Good Night and Good Luck and most of them know that this black-and-white political film isn’t fated to win in the categories it’s been nominated for, so Clooney’s acting Oscar will be kind of a Good Luck gimmee. Plus he gave his career best performance in Syriana. Plus he got fat for it. So no contest.