“Academy Voters Are Mostly Talking About ‘Coda’”

The above was a Western Union-style message from an industry guy that I received this evening — seven words that might shake the world John Reed-style, and which, right now, are certainly putting a slight chill up the backs of Netflix execs after CODA having won SAG’s Best Film Ensemble prize.

“You’re kidding,” I replied. “In terms of Best Picture? I mean, I get the fact that it feels a lot warmer and more huggable than The Power of the Dog. But CODA is basically a heart-massaging sitcom, an ABC after-school special, La Famille Belier, etc. It’s fine but calm down, for heaven’s sake! Eugenio Derbez (Mexican music teacher) saved it.”

Regional directorwriter: “CODA has the heart factor going for it, despite its plodding execution at times. POTD has zero support from the industry. It hasn’t won any guild awards. Belfast could benefit but that feels hollow at this point. CODA could start picking up momentum from the SAG win.”

Scott Feinberg analysis

:

SAG’s Chastain Surprise

In a recent Gold Derby Best Actress discussion, Tom O’Neill stuck his neck out by saying there’s a lot of heartfelt support for The Eyes of Tammy Faye‘s Jessica Chastain. Right away Deadline‘s Pete Hammond said “I haven’t heard that,” and a second later IndieWire‘s Anne Thompson (or was it Variety‘s Tim Gray?) said the same.

O’Neill didn’t argue it out and later that day an HE commenter said “that was a gulp moment…O’Neill being shut down on the Chastain schpiel and being told ‘okay Tom, let it go.'”

And that, ladies and germs, set the stage for tonight’s wowser SAG awards surprise…Chastain has won for Best Actress!

None of the know-it-alls were that enthusiastic about her performance. They were all “yes, okay, a good performance but it was mainly about Jessica having worn a ton of silvery eye makeup.”

Which, generally speaking, low-rent SAG-AFTRA voters are always impressed by, of course. The first thing that your basic SAG rube votes for is “most acting,” and the second thing is “most dramatic physical alteration…weight gain or loss, fake nose (The Hours), loads of base and mascara,” etc.

Chastain beat The Lost Daughter‘s Olivia Colman, House of Gucci‘s Lady Gaga, Respect‘s Jennifer Hudson and Being The RicardosNicole Kidman.

HE to Awards Daily‘s Sasha Stone: If I’m not mistaken you said not too long ago that Kidman is probably the front-runner for the Best Actress Oscar. If she ever was a front-runner, she’s certainly no longer that after tonight. She’s actually finished, I would say. (Probably.)

One by one the presumed front-runners have fallen by the wayside — first Spencer‘s Kristen Stewart, then Gaga, now Kidman.

HE to Academy: You can’t give the Oscar to Jennifer Hudson — well, you can but you won’t. And you don’t want to give Colman a second Oscar so soon after the first. And so the only tenable nominee to vote for is Parallel MothersPenelope Cruz! Who delivered the greatest performance among the five nominees anyway!

Posted last September:

We All But Slit Our Throats

“Last year’s woke Soderbergh Oscar telecast was the nadir…we realize that. The Oscars had been losing steam anyway, but the Union Station awards put a fork in it. In one fell swoop we destroyed whatever allure the Oscars once had.

“But this year will be different. We recognize it’s a live event television show and we must prioritize the television audience to increase viewer engagement and keep the show vital, kinetic, and relevant.” – A half-imagined quote from AMPAS honcho David Rubin.

“Yup, That Happened”

John Mulaney’s SNL standup last night was excellent stuff. Delivered in his usual dry, ironic fashion, it was mostly about a drug dependency intervention that happened in late ‘20. It reminded me of my own ridiculous adventures in depravity, which I recalled four years ago in a piece called “Clam Chowder Sunday.”