With the Best Picture Oscar nearly in the bag for Birdman, this morning I wrote the usual Oscarologists a question many didn’t want to hear. Who has attempted an honest, warts-and-all, what-really-happened explanation about why so many Gurus of Gold and Gold Derby-ites predicted a Boyhood Best Picture victory for so many months? Me: “Some of you have to ask yourself and your Boyhood brethren, ‘Were we just smelling our own asses the whole time or was there something out there that seriously conveyed that Boyhood was a winning horse?”

This morning Gold Derby‘s Tom O’Neil and I discuss the current state of Oscar-releated mea culpas and second thoughts in the wake of the Birdman surge.

Only three responded to my letter — Gold Derby‘s Tom O’Neil (with whom I recorded a 25-minute discussion” about an hour ago) Variety critic Scott Foundas and an entertainment journalist who asked for anonymity.

But first, an excerpt from an “oh, fuck it, fine…Birdman wins!” piece posted this morning by Awards Daily‘s Sasha Stone, a longtime Boyhood ally who is basically ascribing the popularity of Birdman to old-boy industry narcissism, which is an idea advanced earlier this month by Grantland‘s Mark Harris.

Birdman‘s Emmanuel Lubezki won the top prize Sunday night at the American Society of Cinematographers Awards at the Hyatt Regency Century Plaza on Sunday night. The ASC honor makes it…what, the seventh big guild award for Alejandro G. Inarritu‘s film? Producers Guild, DGA, SAG Ensemble, art directors, Cinema Audio Style and makeup/hair stylists. Whatever lingering doubts there might have been, etc.

I was half-watching and half-texting during the Saturday Night Live 40th Anniversary special when the all-new Will Ferrell-as-Alex Trebek Celebrity Jeopardy skit began. I put down the phone. It was mainly between Darrell Hammond’s Sean Connery (“whore ads for $40”) and Norm McDonald’s Burt Reynolds, I thought, with Taran Killaim‘s Christoph Waltz a close third. Jim Carrey repeated his Matthew McConaughey Lincoln car commercial bit…fine. Kenan Thompson’s Bill Cosby went over and around my head. Yes, an embed code for the Jeopardy skit happened to appear on the EW.com site, but it really….to hell with it, I’ve said it.

In order to avoid alienating those who believe the earth is only about 10,000 years old and that Adam and Eve had to stay clear of dinosaurs, presumed GOP presidential contender Scott Walker recently avoided challenging this batshit mythology. Or maybe he believes in it. Either way the Washington Examiner‘s Byron York reported yesterday that a May 2014 Gallup poll states that 42 per cent of those questioned said that God created humans in their present form — i.e., no evolution. 31 per cent believe that humans evolved with God’s guidance (i.e. intelligent design, which I don’t have a huge problem with) and only 19 per cent side with Bill Maher.

I would probably enjoy Jurassic World (Universal, 6.12) a bit more if it actually lived up to this parody trailer and delivered an Airplane-like goof. But minus the CG foolery. Nobody’s interested in this franchise like they were in the ’90s. You can’t go home again. I’m not saying the dinos are done, but you can’t re-ignite a spent match. I wasn’t even that thrilled by the Jurassic Park 3D re-release. But you know what still plays? The Lost World: Jurassic Park (’97), which I just watched in HD a week ago.

Presumably a portion of the HE readership was moved to see Fifty Shades of Grey this weekend, most likely as a Valentine’s Day concession to the girlfriend or wife. Here’s my review again, but please have at it yourselves. In the meantime here are my five favorite excerpts from Anthony Lane‘s New Yorker review:

(1) “If the figures are correct, ‘Fifty Shades of Grey’, by E. L. James, has been bought by more than a hundred million people, of whom only twenty million were under the impression that it was a paint catalogue. That leaves a solid eighty million or so who, upon reading sentences such as ‘He strokes his chin thoughtfully with his long, skilled fingers,’ had to lie down for a while and let the creamy waves of ecstasy subside.”

(2) “When Christian, alarmed by Ana’s maidenhood, considers ‘rectifying the situation,’ she replies, ‘I’m a situation?’ — a sharp rejoinder, although if I were her I’d be much more worried about the rectifying.”

Renowned French-born actor Louis Jourdan, who enjoyed fame and fortune as a romantic lead for a little over 15 years, starting with Alfred Hitchcock‘s The Paradine Case (’47) and more or less ending his run in The V.I.Ps (’63), died yesterday at age 93. Once he became famous he was almost always cast as the continental, cultivated charmer. (One exception was when Jourdan played a baddie opposite Doris Day in Julie.) He kept working for decades after that, and I know he rebounded with a villain role in Octopussy (’82) but I swear to God I don’t remember him in that film. Perhaps he didn’t chew enough scenery or acted too civilized? The Marseilles-born Jourdan began his career in the French cinema in the early to mid ’40s and served in the French resistance toward the end of World War II. His best-known role was in Gigi (’58), a popular Paris-set musical with Leslie Caron and Maurice Chevalier. Following his Paradine Case debut Jourdan’s biggest films were Letter from an Unknown Woman (’48), Bird of Paradise (’51), Three Coins in the Fountain (’54), The Swan (’56), The Best of Everything (’59), Can-Can (’60) and, as noted, The V.I.Ps. The poor guy lost his only son, Louis Henry Jourdan, to a drug overdose in ’81.

The 2014/15 Oscar season will experience a crashing finale seven days from now, and the Spirit Awards will happen the day before. (I’m picking up my Spirit press pass and ticket tomorrow.) Only two major Oscar caregories are generating suspense: Birdman vs. Boyhood for Best Picture and Alejandro G. Inarritu vs. Richard Linklater for Best Director. Except for the crazy BAFTAs all signs point to Birdman and Inarritu prevailing, but the Oscar blogoscenti keep insisting that the Academy membership is too hazy-minded to predict and that Boyhood and Linklater might pull off a surprise. Maybe. Both are striking first-rate achievements, and if the tide goes against Birdman…well, okay. The Godz won’t be happy but it won’t be a tragedy.

I can only imagine the elation that will spread across the land when Julianne Moore takes the Best Actress Oscar for a performance that everyone respects in a tedious film that almost everyone has either ignored or not even seen. Ditto when Eddie Redmayne prevails as Best Actor (I’ve pretty much given up on my Michael Keaton dream…an up-and-down career, world-class chops and a great Oscar narrative doesn’t count when you’re up against a cute British puppy dog). Double ditto when J.K. Simmons wins for Best Supporting Actor and Patricia Arquette takes it for Best Supporting Actress. And it’ll be cool when the authors of The Grand Budapest Hotel and The Imitation Game or Whiplash win the Best Original and Best Adapted Screenplay Oscars.

I’ll be watching with the usual bells on, of course, but I suspect I’ll be feeling bored much of the time and that I might have a problem or two with Neil Patrick Harris. But maybe not. Bring on 2015, which is looking like a hell of a year.

Best Picture: Should win/ought to win/favored by MovieGodz — Birdman; would win if American ticket-buyers had anything to say about it — American Sniper.

Best Director: Should win/ought to win/favored by MovieGodz — Birdman‘s Alejandro G. Inarritu. Might win and if so that’ll be okay — Boyhood‘s Richard Linklater.

Update: The Daily Show‘s Jessica Williams posted the following Sunday on Twitter: “I’m not hosting. Thank you but I am extremely under-qualified for the job! At this age (25) if something happens politically that I don’t agree with, I need to go to my room & like not come out for, like, 7 days. That being said I am super not right for it, but there are quite a few people who are! Can’t wait to stick around & see what happens.”

Earlier: HE readers have presumably heard or more precisely been informed that 25 year-old Daily Show correspondent Jessica Williams will replace Jon Stewart later this year. The decision was more or less confirmed a couple of days ago when a clip from Hot Tub Time Machine 2 (Paramount, 2.20) announced that Williams will be sitting in Stewart’s chair ten years hence. Williams is sharp, punchy, brilliant, tall, pointed…a cool choice. Then again most of her Daily Show reports have been, naturally enough, about the perspective of a 25 year-old black woman dealing with sexism, racial profiling and other oppressive cards dealt by old or old-ish white assholes. (Including liberal ones.) And after reviewing some of Williams’ clips this morning, I have to say I felt a slight pause. I’m wondering if even 20something guys will continue to watch The Daily Show as often with Jessica using it as a soapbox to fight the power and redress wrongs for you-go-girls.

After a six-year delay David O. Russell‘s…sorry, Stephen Greene‘s Accidental Love has begun streaming, and has been panned by a small handful. I saw it last night, expecting the expected. But I found it spirited, often amusing and even delightful in short spurts. I’m telling you at the very least that Rodrigo Perez‘s Indiewire pan is way too harsh. Accidental Love is far from a knockout but it’s no disaster either. It’s a minor Russell detour and obviously years out of date (it’s basically a “we all need decent health care!” piece) but portions of this incomplete governmental farce, previously known as Nailed, are far better than indicated by the subdued buzz, particularly in view of Russell having washed his hands of it years ago.

Now and then Accidental Love reminded me of the tone and attitude of Russell’s much-praised American Hustle. While Hustle is probably a better, more fully developed piece, certainly by the standards of most critics, I enjoyed the occasionally inspired Love a bit more. It doesn’t work all that well but it’s insane fun at times. Certainly if you watch it as a flawed thing that will kick into gear every so often and that’s all. I don’t need films to work all around the track if they’re got a few special fragments, and that’s more or less the case here.