Defamer‘s Stu Van Airsdale is spitballing a scenario in which The Curious Case of Benjamin Button goes 0-for-13 on Oscar night. No way. It has to win for the CG face-pasting stuff.

People West Coast bureau chief Elizabeth Leonard has been demoted to senior writer, I’ve been told. I don’t know why they’ve slapped her down or what the corporate strategy is. I called a couple of staffers; nobody picked up. Leonard has been replaced by senior People staff writer J.D. Heyman, although not 100%. (Some of her bureau chief duties will be handled by other People staffers, apparently.) It’s a mess over there. Sooner or later all the Time, Inc. dead-tree publications are going to be remnants of their former selves — downsized, diminished, scrapped.

Dogs like this have the jaw-power to bite your hand off. But this guy’s a real sweetheart. He’s lost weight in recent months so he doesn’t seem as scary. He’s gentle, expressive, emotionally responsive. I’ll always be a Golden Retriever man but this guy’s all right.

Dog from Hollywood Elsewhere on Vimeo

I feel as if the 2nd Great Depression has finally hit me personally, as Nikki Finke is reporting that Variety columnist and reporter Anne Thompson — an excellent reporter and commentator, and one of my oldest friends in this racket — is among the Variety staffers who were laid off today.

Anne will keep her blog, Thompson on Hollywood, and is now talking with Variety about some kind of freelance revenue-sharing deal with them. Or she may tough it out and run her own site and sell her own ads, like myself and David Poland and others are doing. She will will continue teaching film criticism at USC and hosting Sneak Previews at UCLA Extension.

Film Festival editor Mike Jones has also felt the kiss of steel; ditto Jeff Sneider (i.e., “the Jeff”), Alys Marshall, Phil Gallo, Andrew Barker, Byron Perry, Lisa Weinstein, Martha Hernandez, Diane Garrett and Ben Fritz.

This is a terrible time we’re living through. May Barack Obama find and deploy the wisdom, strength and heavenly guidance to get us through this. Shame on the Republican ay-holes who are fighting Obama on the stimulus package, and whose lying, loathsome rationales were identified today by N.Y. Times columnist Paul Krugman. And remember this list of 25 people who brought us to this place.

“The Biggest Movie Event of the Year”? I don’t want to sound like a sourpuss, but this line doesn’t seem to quite get it. Next month’s Oscar telecast promises to be both more and less than this. The copy doesn’t begin to express the kind of Oscar year this has been. It seems oblivious to the Dark Knight, WALL*E, Kristin Scott Thomas and Gomorrah blow-offs. It ignores all the panicking going on right now. Barack Obama, ethical/cultural transformation and the current economic nightmare are “big” — what are the Oscars alongside these?

What should this poster say? If someone has a better line and can Photoshop it into the original, please send along.

Breakfast at a mostly vacant French Marketplace. Staffers, two or three patrons, a pair of Los Angeles County highway patrolmen and a grumpy-looking guy staring a hole in his scrambled eggs and fuming at his slower-than-a-turtle AT&T Communications air card — Monday, 1.26.09, 7:35 am.

Poetry Arts Confidential’s Terry McCarty reports that Megan Seling and Brendan Kiley have been hired by L.A. CITYBEAT management to replace the jettisoned Andy Klein. Links to reviews written by these three are offered for comparison.

The Guardian‘s 1.26 edition includes a report by Julia Finch, Andrew Clark and David Teather that names the 25 bigwigs most responsible for bringing about the grimmest economic episode since the Great Depression. Remember these guys, hang them in effigy, take a poke at them on the street, boil them in oil, etc. It won’t solve anything, but it’ll feel good.

Deadline Hollywood Daily‘s Nikki Finke reported this evening that there may be layoffs “in both the business and editorial sides” of Variety happening this week, perhaps as soon as Monday. One tipster told her the number or rolling heads “might be as high as 30.”

If even someone like myself is feeling a wee bit confused about the categorizing of one of Kate Winslet‘s award-worthy performances, surely the average Academy voter is also. Tonight she won the SAG award for Best Supporting Actress for The Reader, although she’s (a) been Oscar-nominated for that same performance in the Best Actress category, (b) recently won a Golden Globe Best Actress / Drama award for her acting in Revolutionary Road and yet (c) also won a Golden Globe Best Supporting Actress trophy for The Reader.

After tonight’s honor who is even half-sure which category Winslet’s Reader performance belongs in? (There’s no question that her Revolutionary Road performance is a lead.) I for one am thoroughly befuddled. And that is why I’m starting to wonder if Meryl Streep‘s SAG award for Best Actress in Doubt may have given her a distinct advantage over Winslet in the Best Actress Oscar race. Because there is no ambiguity about Streep. Her Doubt performance has always been considered a Best Actress thing — no ifs, ands or buts.

Envelope columnist Pete Hammond wrote tonight that Winslet’s loss to Streep in SAG’s lead actress race “was not a surprise” because “SAG wasn’t gonna give Kate two of them. Revolutionary Road is not a popular picture among many voters, and Streep was the clear beneficiary. The two winning performances will now go head to head on an even playing field, and it will be interesting to see if Streep’s joyous, infectious and altogether charming acceptance at SAG wins her any new converts and turns the best actress Oscar race into a genuine contest.

“Streep’s triumphant run to the stage and her unbridled enthusiasm would make you think this was the first time the 15 time Oscar nominee and two time winner had ever gotten an award. The SAG showcase and heartfelt standing ovation is gonna register. She hasn’t won an Oscar in 27 years. If Miramax can get that across, it’s a horse race.”

On 2.17 Changeling drinking games will commence nationwide. One swig all around whenever Angelina Jolie says “I want my son back!” Double swigs all around when she says “that’s not my son!”

One of the best-written tributes to Revolutonary Road, by none other than San Francisco Chronicle critic Mick LaSalle. It ran three weeks ago, I missed it and I don’t care. LaSalle states his case with conviction and simplicity, which are hard to get right in a piece. Together and harmoniously, I mean. (Thanks to HE reader Jeremy Fassler.)