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You may have read some dour assessments of J.C. Chandor‘s Triple Frontier (Netflix, opening today — streaming as of 3.13), a moralistic heist-gone-wrong adventure thriller. But it’s no wipeout.

It’s definitely a better-than-decent sit, and is certainly worth catching for the second half, or for the section that deals with how to escape with ill-gotten loot on the backs of donkeys, chopping your way through heavy jungle and over and down the Andes mountains.

The first half deals with five 40ish special forces veterans (Ben Affleck, Oscar Isaac, Charlie Hunnam, Garrett Hedlund, Pedro Pascal) deciding to rip off the fortress home of a South American drug dealer, and the second half is about trying to get away with it and not doing so well in this regard, and being forced to abandon more and more dough as the escape progresses.

The second half is about what happens when you’re carried away by greed and you forsake common sense. It’s more or less John Huston‘s Treasure of Sierra Madre meets William Friedkin‘s Sorcerer meets Eric von Stroheim‘s Greed.

I was into Triple Frontier during the first half, but not exactly gripped by it. We aren’t told very much about the five ex-commandos (Affleck’s character is sketched out to some extent — he’s fat, financially strapped, has an alienated daughter) and the general feeling is that the film is a stone skipping across the surface of a lake. Or, you know, more into treading water than actually swimming.

There isn’t enough texture, the heist isn’t planned with enough detail, there aren’t enough hindrances or security guards…it’s all kind of rushed along.

The key moment is when they discover that the drug lord has much, much more cash socked away in his jungle abode than expected. $250 million or something like that. If these guys could get away with $10 million each they’d obviously be doing just fine. Hell, they could make off with $20 million each. But no — cash-strapped Affleck suddenly wants a Kardashian-sized bank account. He not only loses his mind — let’s take it all, look at this, we’re loaded beyond our wildest dreams! — but everyone else falls in line.

The problem is that Issac has arranged for a large Russian-made chopper to take them over the Andes, but all that extra dough (bags and bags of it) weighs a hell of a lot, and they find out too late that the helicopter can’t manage to clear the 11,000-foot Andes peaks with all that weight. The chopper goes down, and then, finally, Triple Frontier gets interesting.

HE commenters were complaining two or three days ago that I’d erred by openly guessing that not all of the five make it out alive. Which is, in fact, true. I’m not going to say how many get away clean, but a typical action melodrama of this type would kill off at least two characters if not three. Suffice that Triple Frontier is atypical.

Affleck is so heavy in this film he’s almost Harvey Weinstein. All that bulk plus thatches of gray hair…you’re seriously wondering if his heart can take the strain and stress. Affleck is almost double the size he was in Gone Girl.

I was nonetheless favorably impressed by Triple Frontier. All in all it’s a solid B plus. And that ain’t hay.

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In the late summer of 1982 I attended a Bobby Zarem press party for Kirk Douglas at Elaine’s. Douglas was around 65 at the time, and about as gamey and blunt-spoken as they come. We talked about Paths of Glory, which Douglas was naturally proud of, and his sometimes contentious relationship with director Stanley Kubrick, who had also directed Douglas in Spartacus. Douglas respected Kubrick immensely, but that day he called him “Stanley the prick,” in part because Kubrick had been ready and willing, Douglas said, to snag screenplay credit for Spartacus, even though it had been written, of course, by the then-blacklisted Dalton Trumbo. Douglas was incensed that Kubrick would even suggest such a remedy, but he did.

Kirk Douglas, Stanley Kubrick on the set of Paths of Glory.

Who could be pretentious enough to wear this overcoat? The collar is ridiculous.

Right now I’ve got nine likely Best Picture nominees for 2020. What am I forgetting? Which of these nine seem dicey (if any)? I have a notion that if Harriet is well acted and carefully crafted (and who knows if it will be?), it’s going to be a big contender. And don’t forget Soderbergh’s The Laundry.

1. Martin Scorsese‘s The Irishman (Netflix, sometime in October) — A mob hitman recalls his possible involvement with the slaying of Jimmy Hoffa. (Robert De Niro, Al Pacino, Joe Pesci, Jesse Plemons).

2. Quentin Tarantino‘s Once Upon A Time in Hollywood (Sony, 7.26) — A faded TV actor and his stunt double embark on an odyssey to make a name for themselves in the film industry during the Helter Skelter reign of terror in 1969 Los Angeles. (Leonardo DiCaprio, Brad Pitt, Margot Robbie, Al Pacino).

3. Marielle Heller‘s A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood — The story of Fred Rogers, the honored host and creator of the popular children’s television program, Mister Rogers’ Neighborhood. (Tom Hanks, Matthew Rhys, Susan Kelechi Watson, Tammy Blanchard)

4. Greta Gerwig‘s Little Women (Sony, 12.25) — Four sisters come of age in America in the aftermath of the Civil War. (Florence Pugh, Timothée Chalamet, Emma Watson, Saoirse Ronan)

5. Jay Roach‘s Fair and Balanced (Lionsgate) — Fox honcho Roger Ailes and sexual harassment allegations that resulted in his resignation. (Charlize Theron, Nicole Kidman, Margot Robbie, John Lithgow, Allison Janney, Kate McKinnon, Malcolm McDowell, Mark Duplass)

6. Kasi Lemmons‘ Harriet (Focus Features) — A feminist 12 Years A Slave, based on the story of freedom fighter Harriet Tubman (Cynthia Erivo), her escape from slavery and subsequent missions to free dozens of slaves through the Underground Railroad in the face of growing pre-Civil War adversity. Cynthia Erivo, Janelle Monae, Joe Alwyn, Deborah Ayorinde, Clarke Peters, Leslie Odom Jr., Tory Kittles, Vondie Curtis-Hall.

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Steven Spielberg really and truly wants to ban all future awards-hungry Netflix films from the Oscar party, including Martin Scorsese‘s The Irishman. Unless, that is, Netflix gets serious about extended theatrical bookings.

Spielberg has flat-out said that “films given token qualifications in a couple of theaters for less than a week shouldn’t qualify for the Academy Award nomination.” Now, at the annual Academy Board of Governors meeting in April, he intends to propose a rule change that would make Netflix films ineligible for Oscar consideration.

Amblin spokesperson: “Steven feels strongly about the difference between the streaming and theatrical situation. He’ll be happy if the others will join [his campaign] when that comes up [at the Academy Board of Governors meeting]. He will see what happens.”

Hollywood Elsewhere agrees with what Spielberg is trying to do here. He’s just trying to implement strict but fair award-season rules, and to guard against future Roma-styled spending blitzkriegs, and at the same time take steps that will protect (in a very precise and limited way) theatrical exhibition during award season.

In other words Hollywood Elsewhere would definitely prefer that Netflix honchos commit to serious 90-day theatrical bookings before going to streaming. I for one genuinely hope they’ll be forced to do this for their award-season contenders. Amazon is loosening its theatrical attitudes and procedures, but Hollywood Elsewhere stands foursquare behind the idea that serious award-season contenders need to be held to three months in theatres before going to streaming. Really.

I’m not talking about garden-variety, day-to-day streaming — that’s obviously the main way that people see movies these days. But award-season contenders should be subjected to different rules.

The Academy governors will listen politely to Spielberg, but let’s get real — the toothpaste is out of the tube and there’s no putting it back in. What are the odds that the Academy is going to exclude The Irishman, a total Netflix package, from Best Picture competition later this year (and into ’20)? Right now I would say they’re not high, but at the same I recognize that Netflix won’t bend its operational strategy unless the Academy totally puts its foot down about award-season theatrical commitments.

I just hope that enough people join Spielberg in insisting on this award-season stipulation.

With the opening of Captain Marvel days away, I need to reiterate that Brie Larson was dead-ass wrong when she said the following last June: “I don’t need a 40-year-old white dude to tell me what didn’t work about A Wrinkle in Time. It wasn’t made for him. I want to know what it meant to women of color, biracial women, to teen women of color.”

In other words, if a movie wasn’t specifically “made” for you or your demo — if a film’s theme or subject doesn’t address your gender, age group or ethnic identity — you might want to see something else because you might have difficulty appreciating its finer aspects.

Larson’s statement also implies that there’s no such thing as a seasoned critic being able to recognize whether or not a filmmaker knows what he/she is doing in terms of implementing a vision by way of craft, technique and artful dodging. She seemed to be saying that subjectivity — gender, age, identity — is as important as learned perception, and perhaps a bit more so.

I’ve been in this racket since the late ’70s and there really is a thing called “being smart, educated and experienced enough to really know what you’re talking about.” Being white or over 40 is not necessarily a hindrance in this regard (the over-40 part actually helps for the most part), and being female or a person of color is not necessarily a plus when it comes to assessing films like Captain Marvel, A Wrinkle in Time or Ava DuVernay‘s When They See Us.

I know this is the wrong thing to say in our highly politicized environment, but a good film is a good film.

Netflix will debut Ava DuVernay‘s When They See Us, a five-part dramatic reenactment of the 1989 Central Park Jogger case, on 5.31.19. I wrote about the DuVernay project when it was first announced 19 months ago,

Excerpt: “Ken and Sarah Burns‘ The Central Park Five, a 2012 documentary, was one thing (i.e., not without problems but compelling). But a dramatic miniseries will be a whole ‘nother challenge.

“The case was about the assault and rape of Trisha Meili, a female stockbroker, in Manhattan’s Central Park on 4.19.89. Five young black dudes — Anton McCray, Kevin Richardson, Raymond Santana, Kharey Wise and Yusef Salaam — were wrongly prosecuted and falsely imprisoned, only to be exonerated and freed several years later.

“The whole episode was a clear expression of racist hysteria (particularly on Donald Trump‘s part) and institutional corruption.

“Duvernay is nonetheless facing two significant problems in terms of her main characters — one being the bizarre police confessions by the five alleged assailants.

“If DuVernay fudges, sidesteps or fabricates (as she did to some extent with her depiction of Lyndon B. Johnson‘s actions in Selma), she’s going to run into trouble.”

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Dave Itzkoff has a 2.28.19 N.Y. Times story called “Can Captain Marvel Fix Marvel’s Woman Problem?” The problem, historically speaking, is a leering, less-than-enlightened attitude about Marvel’s female characters over the decades. The idea is that Captain Marvel might popularize a less sexist, more liberated agenda. Yes, I’m putting myself to sleep as I write this.

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Wall Street Journal reporter Reid Epstein has tweeted that Joe Biden has described Mike Pence as “a decent guy, our vice president.”

That’s it! Biden is done, finito, over and out. In this highly charged, intensely contrarian atmosphere, a possible Democratic presidential candidate cannot be exuding collegial, business-as-usual, hail-fellow-well-met vibes about a culturally ass-backwards, white-haired rightwing fiend who’s stood foursquare behind our mafia-crime-boss President, and who once ratted out his fraternity brothers for having a beer keg.

There’s no room for that kind of casually jocular, country-club, “Mike has his flaws but he’s an okay guy” attitude. Forget it!

On top of which Epstein and Janet Hook have filed a WSJ piece about how Democratic leaders in Iowa “are hungry for a young standard-bearer who will usher in generational change,” which is basically a “not now, too late, you’ve missed your chance” message aimed at Biden, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.

The Pence quote plus that 1.23 N.Y. Times story about Biden accepting a $200K speaking fee from the Economic Club of Southwestern Michigan weeks before the November 2018 election, and during his speech supporting Representative Fred Upton, a long-serving Republican ‘who in 2017 helped craft a bill to repeal the Affordable Care Act'”…that’s it.

Biden is toast — he will not make it through the Democratic primary process.

The likeliest Democratic nominees are now Beto O’Rourke (who will be announcing within a few days) or Kamala Harris, and at the end of the day O’Rourke will probably be the victor.

via GIPHY

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There’s a Luchino Visconti series underway at the American Cinematheque Egyptian, and one big Hollywood Elsewhere benefit is a chance to finally see the masterful Rocco and His Brothers (’60) — yes, for the very first time in my life. The big moment happens on Saturday, 3.2 at 7:30 pm. The film was 4K restored in 2015, partly with the collaboration of dp Giuseppe Rotunno. DCP, not film.

Costarring Alain Delon, Annie Girardot, Renato Salvatori (married to Girardot in ’62, played Greek thug in Z, died of cirrhosis of the liver at age 55), Katina Paxinou, Spiros Focás and Claudia Cardinale. An alleged masterpiece — we’ll see.

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For the last five or six Cannes Film Festivals Washington Post critic Ann Hornaday and I have been sharing a charming, two-story, 19th Century apartment in the Old Town section, just a five-minute walk from the Palais. Two things are different this year. One, Ann won’t be attending and two, a new apartment (same building, just as old and homey, huge bedroom, adjacent living room and kitchen) is in play. 1800 euros for 12 or 13 days (a proportionate split depending on who gets the bedroom plus 60 euro cleaning fee). You are not going to find this much charm and value for this kind of money anywhere during the festival — trust me. Lemme know.

I’m not predicting that Quentin Tarantino‘s Once Upon A Time in Hollywood (Sony, 7.26) will have its big worldwide debut at the 2019 Cannes Film Festival (May 14-25), but it wouldn’t surprise me if it happens. The film already has a huge want-to-see, granted, but Tarantino, Hollywood and the stellar cast (Leonardo DiCaprio, Brad Pitt, Margot Robbie, Al Pacino, Emile Hirsch, Damian Lewis) descending upon the Cote d’Azur would have a seismic worldwide impact.

Tarantino has been a devotee of this storied festival for nearly three decades, several QT films have premiered there (Reservoir Dogs, Pulp Fiction, Kill Bill, Inglorious Basterds) and Cannes is the only world-class launch pad that makes sense for Once Upon A Time in Hollywood‘s editing schedule. The 1969 hippie-era drama wrapped on 11.1.18, and would presumably be in some kind of viewing shape by mid May.

Remember that Inglorious Basterds premiered in Cannes on 5.20.09, and opened stateside three months later — Hollywood‘s commercial opening would arrive only two months after Cannes.

Said it before, repeating for emphasis: Dexter Fletcher‘s Rocketman (Paramount, 5.31) may meet with commercial success, but it’s absolutely not going to become a Bohemian Rhapsody-like awards contender.

As I wrote a few days ago, Taron Egerton‘s imitation of Elton John‘s signing voice doesn’t cut it — and nobody will buy into a John biopic in which “Elton” sounds like a cruise-ship imitator. On top of which Hollywood Elsewhere despises Egerton for the two Kingsman movies plus the Robin Hood debacle. So forget it — Rocketman is strictly a commercial playdate.

But the following seven films are almost certain to be Best Picture-nominated (except for the Tarantino, which I have vague doubts about):

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