Four major awards-giving groups have recently announced their top pics, and so far the leading hottie is Luca Guadagnino‘s Call Me By Your Name. That is, if you go by the top prize given by Gotham Awards plus the six Spirit Award nominations earned by the CMBYN team. No guarantees, but with six nominations the odds favor Guadagnino taking the Spirits’ Best Feature trophy.

On the other hand the New York Film Critics Circle have just chosen Lady Bird as 2017’s Best Film, but the winners of that award and the Best Picture Oscar champs have only occasionally overlapped. Two days ago the more mainstream-minded National Board of Review gave their top award to Steven Spielberg‘s The Post. This may or may not indicate the voting preferences of Academy and guild members next month, although it probably will.

There’s no disputing, however, that over the last few years the winners of the Spirit and Gotham awards have mostly gone on to win the Best Picture Oscar. In five of the past six years, in fact, winners of the Spirit Best Feature prize have gone on to win five Best Picture Oscars — 2011’s The Artist, 2013’s 12 Years a Slave, 2014’s Birdman, 2015’s Spotlight and 2016’s Moonlight.

It would seem at this stage that any half-attuned Oscar prognosticator would identify Call Me By Your Name as a leading Best Picture contender. And yet when six Oscar experts were recently polled by the L.A. Times (“From Dunkirk to Coco: The 2018 Oscars Buzzmeter”), their six biggest favorites didn’t include the Guadagnino.

Instead they chose Lady Bird (smart call), Darkest Hour (which hasn’t a snowball’s chance in hell of winning Best Picture — Best Actor shoo-in Gary Oldman is Focus Features’ only competitive pony), Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri (a respected film that was shut out in the Spirit Award noms and by the Gothams), Dunkirk (total shut-out among NYFCC and NBR voters), Get Out (Spirit nominee, Gotham winner + Best First Film award from NYFCC) and The Shape of Water (shunned by Spirits, blanked by NBR and NYFCC).

Most of these six films could theoretically win the 2017 Best Picture Oscar, but what could Gold Derby‘s Tom O’Neil, Vanity Fair‘s Nicole Sperling, Indiewire‘s Anne Thompson, The Envelope‘s Glenn Whipp and L.A. Times critics Justin Chang and Kenneth Turan have been thinking to have not selected Guadagnino’s film as at least a hot contender? How could they possibly size up the field and go “naaah, don’t think so” when it came to the one film in the 2017 Best Picture constellation that many have called a masterpiece and a classic slow-burn love story?

In fact Chang, Turan, Whipp, Sperling and O’Neil picked Call Me By Your Name as a leading Best Picture contender, but the other six films ranked higher.

It’s odd, man. Really odd.

If you go strictly by Metacritic and Rotten Tomato ratings, Call Me By Your Name is the second highest with a 95% and 98% rating, respectively for an average of 96.5%. How could that esteem possibly translate into six other films being ranked as hotter contenders?

Darkest Hour is the lowest rated of all with 73% Metacritic and 85% Rotten Tomatoes tallies. Lady Bird has the highest ratings with a Metacritic 94% and a Rotten Tomatoes 100%. Dunkirk has a 94% Metacritic vs. 92% Rotten Tomatoes. Get Out has an 84% Metacritic vs. a Rotten Tomatoes 99%. Three Billboards has an 87% Metacritic vs. 94% Rotten Tomatoes. The Shape of Water has a 95% Rotten Tomatoes vs. an 86% Metacritic.

It doesn’t matter to me if Garth Davis‘s Mary Magdelene, which is slated to open domestically on 3.30.18, goes out as a Weinstein Co. or Focus Features release. The movie’s the thang, not the distributor. (There’s no Weinstein Co. logo at the end of this trailer, but a Focus Features logo does appear.) Davis’s film is presumably a feminist slant on the New Testament legend, written by Helen Edmundson and Philippa Goslett, with Rooney Mara playing the reformed harlot Mary Magdalene.

It’s also a slightly revisionist take with Jesus Christ, who died at age 33, being portrayed by a 43 year-old Joaquin Phoenix, who actually looks like he’s 54.

It’s fascinating to contemplate a scene in which Jesus and Mary Magdelene (Rooney Mara) are chatting on a hilly Italian coastline (pic was shot in Matera, the Puglia region, Napoli and Sicily) and looking out at the Mediterranean. On top of which you can’t hear the dialogue. I defy HE readers to tell me what Mara and Pheonix are saying to each other starting at the 56-second mark. Mara: “Pisahtla minnup-minnupah kaht?” Phoenix (at 1:00 minute mark): “Nuhnwah sinkdat bad pitnyah puhtohit.”

Costarring Chiwetel Ejiofor as Apostle Peter and Tahar Rahim as Judas Iscariot. Pic will probably be released on 3.30.18.

A three-day-old Buzzfeed article by Julie Gerstein has briefly revived the “Is Die Hard is a Christmas flick?” debate. This morning I addressed the topic on Facebook:

This is going to sound tiresome to the hipster-cynics out there, but there’s only one (1) Christmas flick that really and truly serves the spirit of that once-blessed holiday — the 1951, British-made A Christmas Carol (titled Scrooge in England) with Alastair Sim. Period. Other films have tried and nearly gotten there, but Brian Desmond Hurst‘s black-and-white classic comes from the same cultural fibre that sired and inspired Charles Dickens himself. Every time I’ve watched it (at least a couple of dozen times) it summons memories of family and community values that may have once existed, at least in my heart, and melts me right the fuck down.

And you’re gonna throw Bruce Willis and his bloody, glass-cut feet into the same bullpen?

If you want to put on your perversely ironic elf cap and cackle your ass off as you slam back a double-rum-shot egg nog, you can call Die Hard a Xmas flick…sure, heh-heh, why not?, fuck it. But in so doing you’ll be compounding the perversity and adding yet another layer of crust and cynical remove from a holiday that used to actually occasion a brief spiritual sea-change in people…a teaspoon of extra kindness that would sink in and lift all boats.

One of the many reasons that Christmas has felt more and more like a lesser thing has been the corroded, loathsomely insincere mindset that has allowed (wink-wink, fuck-all, who gives a shit?) for “Die Hard is a Xmas movie” to gain a semi-serious foothold in the cultural conversation.

And you know what? For all my feelings of pious denunciation, I have, all on my own, Alastair Sim notwithstanding, long associated this merrily calculating 1988 John McTiernan flick with (heh-heh) “the holidays.” Really. But in so doing all these years, I’ve said to myself “is the part of you that used to wear a semblance of true Christmas spirit on your sleeve…has that spiritual spark been completely narcotized?” The answer, of course, is ”well, not entirely but yeah, for the most part.”

And this is who we are and what we’ve become, Mr. Dickens. Sorry, brah, but it’s true. And so I say “Merry Christmas, Mr. Silver, Mr. Willis, Mr. McTiernan, Mr. De Souza!!…in keeping with the situation.” I’ve walked the London streets during the early Christmas season (37 years ago, to be exactly, when I was there to interview Peter O’Toole for GQ magazine.) And the Brits really know from Christmas spirit, trust me, just as surely as plastic American mall-fuck consciousness has been shitting all over the spirit of the occasion since the dawn of Reagan.

The only good thing is that I don’t drink egg nog any more.

The winners from the New York Film Critics Circle, who voted this morning:

Best Film: Greta Gerwig‘s Lady Bird. HE comment: No argument as Lady Bird is one of the HE’s Big Four along with Call Me By Your Name, Dunkirk and The Post. Obviously a huge boost for this A24 release along with Gerwig, Ronan and (in a roundabout pushback way) the unfairly overlooked Laurie Metcalf.

Best Director: Sean Baker for The Florida Project. HE comment: Due respect to Baker, but his fine Orlando accomplishment did not produce a greater, grander film than Call Me By Your Name or Lady Bird. This is fetishy contrarianism for its own sake. The spirit of the LAFCA Lox & Bagels & Red Onions Food Appreciation Group has invaded the NYFCC.

Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet in Call Me By Your Name. HE comment: Yup, you betcha. Does this indicate a Best Picture win for Luca Guadagnino‘s film?

Best Actress: Saoirse Ronan in Lady Bird. HE comment: 110% agreement.

Best Screenplay: Phantom Thread by Paul Thomas Anderson. HE comment: You think so? I need to think this one over.

Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe in The Florida Project. HE comment: Although my personal preference is for Michael Stuhlbarg‘s performance as the supportive dad in Call Me By Your Name, Dafoe is very good as the Orlando flophouse manager. I respect his work enormously. If he takes the Oscar, c’est la vie.

Best Supporting Actress: Tiffany Haddish in Girls Trip. HE comment: WHAT? Lady Bird‘s Laurie Metcalf shoulda won it. Or, failing that, I, Tonya‘s Allison Janney.

Best First Film: Get Out (d: Jordan Peele). HE comment: Great, whatever, fine.

Best Foreign Language Film: BPM (Beats Per Minute) (d: Robin Campillo). HE comment: Strongly disagree. Andrej Zvyagintsev‘s Loveless is a more formidable accomplishment — masterful chops, compassionate, humanist. In my Cannes Film Festival review (which was titled “Punch Me In The Face“), I called Campillo‘s film” a strident, oppressively didactic period film…a tough, well-made thumbs-upper, okay, but at the same time the relentless political-talking-points dialogue gradually numbs you out, and then drains you of your will to live.”

Best Non-Fiction Film: Faces Places (d: Agnes Varda). HE comment: Didn’t see it.

Best Animated Film: Coco (d: Lee Unkrich, Adrian Molina). HE comment: I don’t do animated.

Best Cinematography: Mudbound (dp: Rachel Morrison). HE comment: Sure, no problem, fine work.

Seven and a half years ago I wrote that “anyone who takes long showers is a soft sister — a person looking to hide inside the warm amniotic fluid of his mother’s womb, which is what a nice hot shower feels like. Long-shower takers are babies, whiners, cowards — they’re the same people who hide away inside an alcoholic or nicotine or drug cave. Your average enterprising, disciplined, hard-working types take four- or five-minute showers, at the longest. If you’re really hard-core you’ve finished in less than three. No exceptions, no excuses — either you get it or you don’t.”

Aaron Sorkin is not my idea of a whiner or a coward, and his taking eight showers a day to invigorate his writing process does not run afoul of endorsed Hollywood Elsewhere behaviors. Sorkin isn’t hiding in his mother’s amniotic sac — he just using steamy water to get his creative juices going. Taking eight showers is a process, and is no different than bobbing and jabbing in a boxing ring once an hour to sharpen your game.

The full Sundance 2018 slate (110 films, 99 world premieres) was announced earlier today, including premieres. I think I’ll tackle it in stages — premieres and doc premieres today, and we’ll see what happens tomorrow and the next day.

The bottom line is that if a movie sounds too Sundance-y, I’m going to say “naaah” for now. Which doesn’t mean I won’t eventually warm to it. I just think that Sundance-y movies are too sensitive, too deferring to the p.c. norm, too touchy-feely. They’ve become a self-defined genre or brand unto themselves.

The premieres that Hollywood Elsewhere is most looking forward to:

Beirut (Director: Brad Anderson, Screenwriter: Tony Gilroy) — A U.S. diplomat flees Lebanon in 1972 after a tragic incident at his home. Ten years later, he is called back to war-torn Beirut by CIA operatives to negotiate for the life of a friend he left behind. Cast: Jon Hamm, Rosamund Pike, Shea Whigham, Dean Norris.

Colette (U.K. – director: Wash Westmoreland) — A young country woman marries a famous literary entrepreneur in turn-of-the-century Paris: At her husband’s request, Colette pens a series of bestselling novels published under his name. But as her confidence grows, she transforms not only herself and her marriage, but the world around her. Cast: Keira Knightley, Dominic West, Fiona Shaw, Denise Gough, Elinor Tomlinson, Aiysha Hart.

The Catcher Was a Spy…naaah….Come Sunday…naaah….Damsel…naaah.

Don’t Worry, He Won’t Get Far On Foot (Director: Gus Van Sant) — John Callahan has a talent for off-color jokes…and a drinking problem. When a bender ends in a car accident, Callahan wakes permanently confined to a wheelchair. In his journey back from rock bottom, Callahan finds beauty and comedy in the absurdity of human experience. Cast: Joaquin Phoenix, Jonah Hill, Rooney Mara, Jack Black.

Futile and Stupid Gesture (Director: David Wain) — The story of comedy wunderkind DougKenney, who co-created the NationalLampoon, Caddyshack and AnimalHouse. Kenney was at the center of the 70‘s comedy counter- culture which gave birth to SaturdayNightLive and a whole generation’s way of looking at the world. Cast: Will Forte, Martin Mull, Domhnall Gleeson, Matt Walsh, Joel McHale, Emmy Rossum.

The Happy Prince (Director and screenwriter: Rupert Everett) — The last days of Oscar Wilde are brought to vivid life. His body ailing, Wilde lives in exile, surviving on the flamboyant irony and brilliant wit that defined him as the transience of lust is laid bare and the true riches of love are revealed. Cast: Colin Firth, Emily Watson, Colin Morgan, Edwin Thomas, Rupert Everett.

Millions of us are sick to death of watching Robert Downey Jr. playing Tony Stark / Iron Man for the umpteenth time. Sick of it, sick of it, sick of it. But the flying billionaire, debonair quipster, dashing adventurer and hotdog philanthropist is returning all the same, and you know what? You’re all going to have to sit there and take it. Four years after the events of Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2, the Avengers join forces with the Guardians to battle Josh Brolin‘s Thanos, who wants…who gives a shit what he wants?

Costarring Mark Ruffalo, Tom Hiddleston, Chris Evans, Chris Hemsworth, Jeremy Renner, Chris Pratt, Elizabeth Olsen, Sebastian Stan, Benedict Cumberbatch, Paul Bettany, Cobie Smulders, Benedict Wong, Zoe Saldana, Karen Gillan, Vin Diesel, Dave Bautista, Bradley Cooper, Scarlett Johansson, Benicio del Toro, Tom Holland, Anthony Mackie, Chadwick Boseman, Paul Rudd, Don Cheadle, Letitia Wright, etc. Every last one of these guys collecting a big, fat Marvel paycheck. Directed by Anthony and Joe Russo from a screenplay by Christopher Markus and Stephen McFeely, Avengers: Infinity Wars opens on May 4th.

All The Money In The World director Ridley Scott flew to Rome and re-shot Kevin Spacey‘s scenes with Christopher Plummer between 11.20 and…are they still shooting? If they are the task will surely be completed by today or Thursday, 11.30 or Friday, 11.1. And then they’ll have two weeks to edit in the new footage before screening the film for press by Friday, 12.15. Astonishing yeoman work by Scott and his team, and an extra round of applause for Plummer.

Update: Variety is reporting that a “rough” version of All The Money in the World will screen in New York next Monday, 12.4, for members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. in order to qualify for Golden Globes consideration. Sony/TriStar Pictures still plans to screen the finished film for domestic press by 12.15, as previously expected, or perhaps even earlier than that.

HE to Scott: Said this before, saying it again. Please, please don’t toss the Spacey footage. He turned out to be a creepy predator, okay, but he’s also a brilliant actor. Don’t throw history into the trash bin. Include the Spacey performance as a Bluray extra.

In an 11.28 W profile by Lynn Hirscherg, Phantom Thread star Daniel Day Lewis took a stab at explaining why he’s decided to retire from acting. Well, he didn’t actually explain it but he said that a certain soul-draining ennui had seeped into his system as a result of making Phanthom Thread. It had dropped him into a mysterious and enveloping mood pocket that he didn’t want to settle into. Or something like that.

But many of us feel this way at one point or another. Our lives or professional callings are no longer fulfilling us and or have become draining. But very few of us retire or quit our jobs as a result. Why? Because quitting or retiring will require that we live on a smaller income, and most of us don’t want to sacrifice the quality-of-life factor. So we grim up and put up with our frustrations and disappointments and push on.

Why then is Daniel Day Lewis actually retiring? Because he can afford to. He’s got enough put away or enough invested or what-have-you. If he couldn’t afford it he wouldn’t be doing it. Simple as that.

Ostensible reason #1: “Before making the film, I didn’t know I was going to stop acting. I do know that Paul and I laughed a lot before we made the movie. And then we stopped laughing because we were both overwhelmed by a sense of sadness. That took us by surprise: We didn’t realize what we had given birth to. It was hard to live with. And still is.” HE comment: Poor baby.

Ostensible reason #2: Hirschberg reports that Jim Sheridan, the director of My Left Foot and two other Day-Lewis films, once remarked that “Daniel hates acting.” Day-Lewis to Hirschberg: “I’ll think, is there no way to avoid this? In the case of Phantom Thread, when we started I had no curiosity about the fashion world. I didn’t want to be drawn into it. Even now, fashion itself doesn’t really interest me. In the beginning, we didn’t know what profession the protagonist would have. We chose fashion and then realized, What the hell have we let ourselves into? And then the fashion world got its hooks into me.” HE comment: So the fashion world flew down like an eagle and pounced on poor Daniel and dug its sharp talons into his back and carried him away. Poor baby.

Ostensible reason #3: “There are spells in these films that you can’t account for,” DDL tells Hirschberg. “Paul and I spoke a lot about curses — the idea of a curse on a family, what that might be like. A kind of malady. And it’s not that I felt there was a curse attached to this film, other than the responsibility of a creative life, which is both a curse and a blessing. You can never separate them until the day you die. It’s the thing that feeds you and eats away at you…gives you life and is killing you at the same time.”

Adam Sandler: Do you read any of the reviews or any stuff about your performances?

Jennifer Lawrence: Only when they’re good. No, I don’t. Normally, I promote a movie, you put the work in to promoting it, ask people to go see it, and then it’s just kind of out of your hands. I normally just kind of let it go. Dating [Darren Aronofsky] was different, because we’d be on the tour together. I’d come back to the hotel, and the last thing I want to talk about or think about is a movie. He comes back from the tour, and that’s all he wants to talk about. I get it; it’s his baby. He wrote it; he conceived it; he directed it. I was doing double duty trying to be supportive partner while also being like, ‘Can I please, for the love of God, not think about mother! for one second?’ And then he would start reading me reviews, and I finally was like, ‘It’s not healthy…I’m not going to do it, because if I read it, I start getting defensive.’ Especially because it’s my man. I don’t want to sound in an interview that I’m defending what we’re doing in any way. It’s awesome, what we did. The people who hate it really hate it. But it’s nothing that needs to be defended. If I read a negative review, I just feel defensive.”

Posted on 9.15.17: “Is mother! in fact about ‘the madness, the mob, the awfulness, the vulgarity, the end, the abominations, Dr. Phil, the poison, the ego monsters and rampant obscenities and tables of half-drunk 20something girls wailing with laughter in bars…about every unfortunate social horror of the 21st Century?

“It’s a film about dark, malicious things happening to a home and more particularly to a shaky marriage between Jennifer Lawrence and Javier Bardem, but it’s not some primal, oozy, goo-gloppy horror flick but — surprise! — a nervy, wild-ass provocation that actually qualifies as ‘thoughtful’. Really. Five or six people can see mother! and come out with five or six different takes, and all of them valid.

“Obviously all horror flicks are signifiers of subterranean cultural undercurrents, but most stand and deliver as visceral experiences. The best ones slip into your bloodstream and before you know it you’re them. Or they’re you. mother! is visceral as hell, but you can’t watch it and not think ‘uhhm, this is about more than what I’m seeing on the screen…this might actually be about everything that’s happening on the planet right now.’ Or not. Up to you.”

No details about what particular behaviors sent Matt Lauer‘s career crashing into the rocks, but former MSNBC anchor Keith Olbermann tweeted this morning that NBC knew about Lauer’s sexual misconduct prior to getting whacked yesterday and that the network had chosen to “enable” and “bury” the issue rather than take action.

“Matt Lauer was [remorselessly] vindictive and tyrannical to everyone at NBC News and management repeatedly enabled him and buried the issue,” said Olbermann tweeted.

TMZ “sources” have said that “virtually everyone at NBC was in the dark that Lauer was on the chopping block.” And yet, TMZ says, “NBC had [allegedly] been investigating Lauer for weeks and wanted to get ahead of The New York Times and Variety, which were preparing stories on Lauer and alleged sexual misconduct.”

The woman whose complaint triggered Lauer’s firing and her attorney met with NBC Human Resources and legal depts. on Monday, 11.27 at 6 pm, during which time she officially vented. A Variety report says that Lauer was quite the hound within his realm.

At the same time Prairie Home Companion creator-headliner Garrison Keillor, 75, has been cut loose by Minnesota Public Radio, but the term in this instance was “improper conduct,” or allegations of his “inappropriate behavior with an individual who worked with him,” according to a statement from the radio network. The AP quoted Keillor saying that he’d been canned over “a story that I think is more interesting and more complicated than the version M.P.R. heard.”