In the wake of last night’s DGA win by Birdman‘s Alejandro G. Inarritu, even those who have been in serious Boyhood denial mode over the last several months are admitting that the odds seem to favor Birdman taking the Best Picture Oscar. And yet most of the so-called awards-race “experts” (hah!) have been projecting a Boyhood win for months and months. In fact, if you check the latest Gurus of Gold prediction chart, you’ll see that an overwhelming majority of know-it-alls were STILL predicting a Boyhood win right up to the last minute despite Birdman having recently won the PGA Zanuck and SAG ensemble awards. I’m talking about The Delusionals, and their names are Hitfix‘s Greg Ellwood, Toronto Star‘s Peter Howell, Fandango‘s Dave Karger, L.A. Times‘ Mark Olsen, Movie City News‘ David Poland, The Film Experience‘s Nathaniel Rogers, Awards Daily‘s Sasha Stone, Indiewire‘s Anne Thompson and L.A. Times Glenn Whipp.

When was the last time in Oscar-predicting history have so many experts and Oscarologists been so dead fucking wrong during the final laps?

I’m the only one in this racket who’s had Birdman‘s back from Telluride on. Which doesn’t mean squat as far as my predicting abilities are concerned. I’ve never been into predicting what Academy members would vote for. Year after year I’ve merely said “this should win” or “that should win” because of my own passions or sensings of what the Movie Godz would prefer. When the Academy has agreed with my preferences I’ve looked like a wise man; when they haven’t I’ve looked out of touch. I was proud, of course, not to have predicted and/or supported the Best Picture triumphs of The King’s Speech, Argo, The Artist, Chicago, et. al.

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“Those who have had their fill of Terrence Malick‘s impressionistic musings will find Knight of Cops as empty as the lifestyle it puts on display,” writes Variety‘s Justin Chang. With his latest film, in post-production for the better part of two years and just press-screened in Berlin this morning, Malick “has settled into a deeply personal vein that all but his staunchest admirers may find wanting compared with his celebrated earlier work.

“[But] for the rest of us, there’s no denying this star-studded, never-a-dull-moment cinematic oddity represents another flawed but fascinating reframing of man’s place in the modern world.

“Absent the grand historical subjects of The Thin Red Line and The New World or the cosmic glories of The Tree of Life, the director has turned his focus on attractively forlorn wanderers set adrift in the present day, pursued by a restless, roving handheld camera that blurs their visions, memories, private moments and encounters with others into one convulsive stream of consciousness.

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I swear to God I don’t even remember the Apple Lisa…no recollection whatsoever. By the time this 1982 (or was it ’83?) spot aired the Lisa was all but finished. Only about 100,000 units were sold. “After Steve Jobs was forced out of the Lisa project in 1982, he joined the Macintosh project. The Macintosh is not a direct descendant of Lisa, although there are obvious similarities between the systems. The final revision, the Lisa 2/10, was modified and sold as the Macintosh XL.” — from Wiki page.

I finally saw Niki Caro‘s McFarland, USA last night, and it’s nothing less than a wow and a hit — a fleet, heartfelt, real-deal embrace of all the things that make a good underdog sports movie, and blended with a layering of rural Latino culture and the kind of neighborhood/family values that make it all worth it when you get past the materialistic creature-comforts bullshit. (Except for lightning-fast wifi, that is — life is a bucket of shit if you don’t have that.)

Caro, director of the epic Whale Rider (’02), is telling the true story of track coach Jim White, who led a mostly Latino high school track team in a hardscrabble San Joaquin Valley community to an unlikely state championship in the mid ’80s, and then kept the winning streak going into the early aughts.

Obviously a descendant of David Anspaugh‘s Hoosiers (’86), which opened around the time the film’s story unfolds, McFarland USA is a comfort-blanket that you either have to wrap around you or leave the hell alone and walk out of the room. I bought it lock, stock and barrel. I took the wrap. I hate sentimental manipulations in family-friendly movies, but I had to let McFarland, USA in because it deals fair, face-up cards.

Kevin Costner is playing White, and we all know the name of that tune. Costner has long had an affinity for sports sagas, and can do this kind of thing in his sleep. But he’s underplaying like a champ, and he actually finds something unaffected and sincere and even epic in this mostly predictable small-town drama. And it doesn’t matter that you can guess what will happen and to whom. Because Costner and Caro and the 97% Latino cast (Carlos Pratts, Diana Maria Riva and Ramiro Rodriguez are three of the many stand-outs) deliver in just the right way.

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It’s obvious that Jack Pettibone Riccobono‘s The Seventh Fire, a doc about to screen at the Berlinale, is a cut above. Boilerplate: “A portrait of gang life in rural Minnesota as seen through the eyes of two Native American gangsters — a veteran bad guy named Rob Brown and a 17 year-old up-and-comer named Kevin.” Cinematography by Riccobono and Shane Slattery-Quintanilla. “Presented” by Terrence Malick and produced by too many people to mention, but Chris Eyre and Natalie Portman are among them. Original Music by Nicholas Britell.

I’ve okay with Steve Carell, but I’ve never been a huge fan…no offense. He seemed like a nice enough guy during last night’s Santa Barbara Film Festival tribute, which was moderated by Pete Hammond, but it was obvious that the crowd felt a lot more enthusiastic than I did. They seemed completely delighted with everything he said…with themselves for being in his presence. I recognize that Carell is a gifted, “funny” guy but I’ve never found him all that amusing…sorry. He mugs too hard or something. I hated Evan Almighty, his Noah movie. I thought that the chest-hair-removal scene from 40 Year-old Virgin was a so-whatter. I actually respected Carell’s performance as Toni Collette‘s mean-spirited boyfriend in The Way Way Back and he did make something exceptional out of diseased ruling-class malevolence in Bennett Miller‘s Foxcatcher, but the only Carell performance I’ve really and truly been delighted with was his nearly-suicidal gay professor in Little Miss Sunshine.

I attended the Carell after-party for five or ten minutes but I left early before he showed in order to join Scott Feinberg for dinner. What would I have said to Carell anyway? “Hey, Steve….Jeffrey Wells of Hollywood Elsewhere. I’m the one who was comparing you to a slow-running wildebeest before you got nominated for Best Actor. I wasn’t trying to be cruel or unfair…it just came out that way. You did a good job in Foxcatcher and I loved the nose, but honestly? I think your slot should have gone to Nightcrawler‘s Jake Gyllenhaal or Locke‘s Tom Hardy…no offense.”

Except I wouldn’t have said that. I just would have just smiled and offered the usual sheepish pleasantries and maybe asked him about his next dramatic role, etc.

Boyhood costars Ethan Hawke and Patricia Arquette were honored the night before last (i.e., Thursday) by the Santa Barbara Int’l Film Festival. An elegant interview was conducted by festival director Roger Durling, running only about 100 minutes or so. Sophisticated patter start to finish, but we tend to pay the closest attention to the stand-out, tabloidy moments in these interviews, and Durling uncorked one when he alluded to an issue about Arquette’s weight gain over the last few years. It seems that some years ago one of the producers of Arquette’s hit series Medium had asked her to drop a few pounds, and she not only refused but got militant about it. She explained to Durling that a request of that sort was completely inappropriate. In other words, she had decided to abandon that super-hottie thing she had going in the ’90s.

Patricia Arquette and her towering boyfriend, painter Eric White, prior to Thursday night’s Santa Barbara Film Festival tribute.

Arquette explained to a Telegraph interviewer a year ago that “you don’t have to buy your mate’s fidelity by looking a certain way…if you’re really in it for the long haul, ten pounds isn’t going to make — shouldn’t make — a world of difference.” I don’t know how to put this gently but nobody in the world welcomes a mate putting on weight…no one. Plus the 46 year-old Arquette has gained a bit more than ten pounds since her performances in Flirting With Disaster and Lost Highway. I’m sure I’ll be derided for saying this, but she’s become, no offense, a woman of somewhat ample proportions. It happens to short women in their 40s unless they become workout Nazis, and Arquette, it seems, doesn’t care to go there.

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I saw Jupiter Ascending this afternoon, and — shocker! — despised it to the depths of my soul. I hate the Wachowskis, the Warner Bros. guys who approved this thing, CG space fantasies in general, the fans, myself for wasting two hours of my life, the production designers who labored to recreate the aerial metropolis of The Phantom Menace, the guys who made Channing Tatum‘s wolf ears and Gugu Mbatha-Raw‘s deer ears, the way everyone “acts” like they haven’t an honest thought or bone in their bodies, those godawful bees buzzing around Sean Bean‘s farm, Eddie Redmayne‘s revoltingly prissy performance, Drew McWeeny and Alonso Duralde for saying “okay, sure, it’s silly but it sure is lively!”…don’t get me started. The CG galactic fantasy visions of Andy and Lana Wachowski are everything I hate in mainstream movies today…everything thick, dreary, narcotized, spiritually stifling, mandated by corporate goons and therefore more or less the same space shite we’ve been sitting through for the last 25 years, constipated and rank with tired formula.

Thanks to HE reader “Geoff”

I expected to slip into my usual hate funk during the opening ten minutes, but I was choking on Jupiter Ascending within seconds.

It begins with Mila Kunis (Jupiter Jones) narrating her life, starting with the meeting of her mother (Maria Doyle Kennedy) and father (James D’Arcy) somewhere in Russia. D’Arcy is looking through a telescope next to a bridge over a river, and Kennedy, naturally mystified, says to D’Arcy, “Excuse me, sir, but whatever are you doing?” Right away I hated her and her spawn. And the Wachowskis for writing the dialogue, and for telling Kennedy to over-act the line. You stupid fucking cow, I said to Kennedy’s character. You’re walking along and you notice some fellow looking through a telescope (generally an indication of curiosity and intelligence) and your first thought is “Good heavens, what a truly absurd thing to do…this man needs to explain himself”? D’Arcy turns and smiles like an idiot and explains that to Kennedy he’s looking at the heavens and (I think) Jupiter in particular, and that he’s so delighted by the beauty of it all. And then they start beaming at each other.

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I felt so badly for Jeff Bridges after looking again at that repellent trailer for Seventh Son (Universal, opening today), by all appearances a fourth-tier, piece-of-shit fantasy film (11% on Rotten Tomatoes) in which he plays a kind of bearded, all-knowing Gandalf figure…what a rank embarassment. Better to get high and find a way to watch a much younger Bridges in close-to-peak form in Bob Rafelson‘s Stay Hungry (’76), a movie that ought to be streamable on Amazon or Vudu but isn’t. One of the best family movies ever made — one of the gentlest, warmest and funniest. You’ll notice that Arnold Schwarzenegger appears to have actually been a reasonably decent fiddle player.

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The first two episodes of Andrew Jarecki and Marc Smerling‘s The Jinx: The Life and Deaths of Robert Durst, a six-part HBO series about the twisted history of wealthy oddball and likely murderer Robert Durst, were screened at the Sundance Film Festival a week or so ago. What I saw was a crafty, high-end crime documentary about an obviously fucked-up old guy who probably killed his wife in 1982 and then killed an elderly guy named Morris Black in Galveston, Texas in 2001. But you’re fascinated nonetheless. Durst was investigated but never charged with his wife’s murder. He was tried for the Galveston murder but acquitted. The doc seems to basically be saying that rich guys, even crazy rich guys, tend to skate if they’re crafty and slippery enough. This is the second time to the Durst well for Jarecki, who directed and produced All Good Things, a 2010 melodrama based on the disappearance of Durst’s wife that costarred Ryan Gosling and Kirsten Dunst. The HBO series pops on Sunday, February 8th.

Rory Kennedy‘s Last Days in Vietnam, which is running neck-and-neck right now with Laura Poitras‘s Citizenfour for the Best Documentary Feature Oscar, is viewable right here for the remainder of today (Friday, 2.6) and all of tomorrow (Saturday, 2.7).

Again, my comments after seeing Last Days in Vietnam at the 2014 L.A. Film Festival: “The waging of the Vietnam War by U.S forces was one of the most tragic and devastating miscalculations of the 20th Century, but what happened in Saigon during the last few days and particularly the last few hours of the war on 4.30.75 wasn’t about policy. For some Saigon-based Americans it was simply about taking care of friends and saving as many lives as possible. It was about good people bravely risking the possibility of career suicide by acknowledging a basic duty to stand by their Vietnamese friends and loved ones and do the right moral thing.”

Posted on 12.12.14: “The difference between Last Days in Vietnam and Citizenfour is that Vietnam spreads the heroism around — it’s about a small community of people who stood up and did the right, risky thing. In a sense it exudes a somewhat more positive view of human nature.”

If In Contention‘s Kris Tapley was a school teacher in the ’50s or before, he’d tell you to stick your hand out so he could whack it with a ruler. Tapley is pissed, seriously pissed about those Eddie Redmayne‘s Norbit pieces, and his words — “stop…just stop” — remind of me of HAL 9000. But he finishes his rant with an interesting thought.

Tapley’s sentence structure is a little awkward so here’s my rewrite: “If you want something of substance to chew on,” he more or less says, “ponder whether Bradley Cooper is Ralph Nader to Eddie Redmayne’s Al Gore or John Kerry…siphoning votes off and thereby potentially allowing for someone like Birdman‘s Michael Keaton to slide up the middle.” That’s fairly close to what Tapley has actually posted, and a reason for hope among the “yay, Keaton” crowd.