Gaming The Oscar System

This morning I was sharing a view that Apple’s Lily Gladstone team made a tactical mistake by not running her in supporting, and the person I was text-chatting with said the following:

“You’re assuming that Gladstone’s primary objective is to win. It’s possible, on the other hand, that she wants to be regarded as a leading lady moving forward, and that [her Best Actress campaign] better positions her for that.”

If so, I replied, that’s an understandable strategy.

In other words, perhaps Gladstone is gaming the Oscar system in the same way that The Favorite‘s Olivia Colman gamed the system when she ran for Best Actress despite having obviously played a supporting role (i.e., Queen Anne).

Posted on 10.11.18:

Don’t Assault Us With Facts

Two-thirds of the Iowa Republicans who caucused last night seriously believe that Joe Biden was not legitimately elected and that Donald Trump was rooked out of being re-elected.

In other words, two thirds of Iowa Republicans are in denial so deep that’ll probably never climb out of it. Total rabbit-hole wackazoid.

The flip side is that one-third of Iowa Republicans believe that Trump would not be fit to be President if convicted of the Jan. 6th charge (or the Georgia case or the documents case). Which translates into national vote and electoral college tallies that would fall short in the national election next November.

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Sundance Refrain For Last Six Years

On 1.15.24 Variety‘s Owen Gleiberman politely inquired about whether the Sundance Film Festival has surrendered the danger factor in its film selections. (Answer: Of course it has.)

Today (1.16.24) World of Reel‘s Jordan Ruimy, in a piece linking to Gleiberman’s column, observed the same thing.

A year ago (1.29.23) former IndieWire editor/columnist Eric Kohn sniffed around and reported the same shit.

Boiled down, they all concluded that potential threats of wokester condemnation had so terrorized filmmakers that they don’t want to take chances. They wouldn’t dare.

And yes, HE said the same thing in a two-year-old HE piece titled “Yes, Virginia…Sensitive Gargoyles Have Ruined Sundance” (12.27.21).

Not Interested

Ten minutes into last night’s opening episode of True Detective: Night Country, I was shaking my head, faintly groaning and muttering “nope…me no like.”

Set in the fictional village of Ennis, a grubby blue-collar hellhole in northern Alaska (but filmed in Iceland), it’s about a murder mystery (eight missing scientists) mixed with spooky horror jolts (a human tongue lying on a linoleum floor, a barefoot hippie wacko standing in a snowstorm) or, if you prefer, gulpy, uh-oh, nightmarish pan-flash stuff.

And I didn’t care…sorry. I was frowning. I actually watched episode #1 twice…well, nearly. But good God and Lordy Lordy. I hated the grimness and the gloom, the atmosphere of working-class gunk and chilly vibes, fleurescent lighting and the constant downer vibes…lemme out.

Miserable Me: “Who could stand living in this godawful one-horse town?”

I didn’t like any characters except for Jodie Foster’s “Danvers”, an aloof, flinty, sourpuss chief of police who’s no fan of the Beatles. I didn’t care for Kali Reis’s “Angeline Navarro”…didn’t like her sulking, sullen attitude or her cheek studs. There’s a young, good-looking cop (Finn Bennett) I took a shine to, but within a short while, as noted, I was sinking into a puddle of despair.

My spirit surged slightly when Reis came upon a CG polar bear on Main Street, but then we go in for the close-up and OF COURSE the bear is a bit scary due to a missing left eye. As soon as I saw that gnarly black eye socket I said to myself, “Fuck this show.”

Apple Gremlins vs. Hawks’ “Thing”

Received this morning from a friend: “How long since you’ve seen Howard HawksThe Thing? (And yeah, he directed it. Of COURSE he did). But here’s the thing: The streaming versions available through Apple and Amazon are fucking CROPPED from their original aspect ratio of 1:37:1 to, I think, 1:78:1. Delightful!”

Screen captures of Apple streaming version:

Screen captures of The Thing Bluray images, taken from the Sony 4K 65-incher:

To Tell The Truth

Posted early this morning: “And your advice is that I should now trim my rhetorical sails lest I cast a certain kind of shade upon the Stone campaign? Because I’m some sort of Darth Vader figure or something?

“Well, I yam what I yam — a straight shooter, a dealer of straight cards, no two-faced political games. Come what may, but at this stage of the game I’m certainly not going to shift gears and do some kind of Phase Two two-step.”

via GIPHY

via GIPHY

via GIPHY

Posted today (1.15.24) by Awards Daily‘s Sasha Stone:

“It is worth noting that since 2018, only one Critics Choice winner has gone on to win the Oscar, and that’s Jessica Chastain for The Eyes of Tammy Faye, who won the SAG in what was an unpredictable, topsy-turvy year. That puts all eyes on the SAG Awards to decide the winner.

“Then again, Glenn Close also won the SAG before losing to Olivia Colman.

“Ultimately, this race will be decided, I think, by how strongly voters feel about two things. Making history with Lily Gladstone, getting that standing ovation and that wave of love and support from the Osage community, or their passion for Emma Stone’s performance. And that will come down to how much they like these movies. Vibrant, weird and funny vs. deep, reflective, a somber reckoning of our past.

“What might also come into play is that Emma Stone has already won an Oscar, whereas Lily Gladstone has yet to be nominated.”

Aftermath

It’s interesting (telling) that no one reporting about last night’s Critics Choice awards has mentioned any surprised, raised-eyebrow reactions about Emma Stone’s Best Actress win. Stone herself clearly didn’t expect it. Kyle Buchanan’s table “yelped in surprise”, he said.

And this morning, it seems, showbiz media reporters and columnists are all passing along the news in emotion-less, no-big-deal, police-blotter fashion.

Why is this? Because, I suspect, they’re probably terrified of acknowledging the Stone triumph as indicative of any kind of shift in the winds, as they don’t want to convey the slightest whiff of approval or excitement as that would go against “the narrative”, and hence might be read as an unfriendly-to-Lily sentiment.

The identity-counts-more-than-quality-or-depth-of- performance sentiment has been the foundational basis of the Gladstone campaign all along.

Stone’s Golden Globes win, last night’s score and her likely forthcoming win at the BAFTA awards will be three-in-a-row. If SAG gives it to Lily regardless then all bets are off — agreed.

Jordan Ruimy: “I think Stone wins the Oscar. If voters actually watch both films [Poor Things and KOTFM] Stone wins due to Lily clearly being a supporting turn.”

Friendo #1: “Academy voters might feel one person of color is enough with Da’Vine Joy Randolph and will not therefore feel obligated to pick Lily. That’s the best argument I can make for a Stone win.”

Friendo #2: “I’m not a fan of Gladstone’s performance, and even the misplacing of her in the lead actress category is a kind of performative identity bullshit. But sorry, I think she’s a lock to win the Oscar. (Might not be true if Stone hadn’t already won.)”

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Emma Stone Snags CC’s Best Actress Award!

With Emma “Bella Baxter” Stone having won the Critics Choice Best Actress award for her Poor Things performance, it now seems as if she stands a better-than-reasonable chance of snagging the Best Actress Oscar. Past Critics Choice votes have often been Oscar predictive so maybe. Here’s hoping.

This is even better than when Emma/Bella won the Golden Globe award for Best Actress — Comedy/Musical, because this time she was up against everyone else (Lily Gladstone, Carey Mulligan, Margot Robbie, et. al.) in the same category. It’s absolutely the right choice, of course, unless, like me, you were nursing special feelings for Mulligan’s Felicia Montealegre in Maestro, which led to turbulence and regret.

HE is not, shall we say, distressed that certain doubts and concerns about Gladstone’s Molly Burkhart performance were recognized and reflected, at least to some extent. Time and again I’ve said that Lily’s Molly Burkhart performance isn’t an appropriate Best Actress contender, considering that (a) Burkhart isn’t really a lead role and that (b) Martin Scorsese and Eric Roth‘s Killers of the Flower Moon script didn’t really give her any Best Actress-level scenes.

Not to mention the generally recognized view that quality of performance should always matter more than issues of identity.

Hearty congrats also to The HoldoversPaul Giamatti for having won the Best Actor award.

Happy days are suddenly upon us!