So the (apparently) likely winner of the Best Picture Oscar was directed by Sian Heder and the locked-down Best Director Oscar winner is Jane Campion. So women are definitely ruling the roost on 3.27.22. A white male winning in either category is a strict nyet.

With Oscar voting beginning on Thursday, 3.17, and ending on Tuesday, 3.22, women everywhere will be voting for this pair — where is the downside in not being on Team Heder-Campion?

With The Power of the Dog finished as a Best Picture winner and eight other nominees (Belfast, Don’t Look Up, Drive My Car, Dune, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story) more or less scratched due to this and that factor, CODA seems like the most likely champ.

I hate to admit this but where else can I go?

CODA has only three nominations (Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Supporting Oscar), and a film with three noms or less hasn’t won Best Picture since the late ‘20s and early ‘30s — Grand Hotel (’32) had only one Best Picture nom but it won — Best Picture winners Broadway Melody of 1929 and Wings had three or fewer.

The New Academy Kidz (virtue-signallers, gender and POC representation is everything, down with white males) believe that West Side Story can’t win because (a) it flopped commercially and (b) it’s a white man’s movie (directed by a white man, originally written by an English white man, adapted by a white man in the mid to late ’50s, recently re-adapted by a white screenwriter).

The New Academy Kidz don’t like King Richard for Best Picture, apparently, because they don’t like that the story was focused on a gnarly, obstinate, not hugely likable man of color (i.e., Richard Williams). Sends a mixed message — they only want POC characters who are 100% sympathetic.

In the view of “Yvan,” an Awards Daily commenter, the state of the Oscar race is about mediocrity prevailing.

“Yvan“: “CODA, Will Smith and The Eyes of Tammy Faye? After all of the great films and performances last year, this is what’s it come down to? I’m gonna keep following along in hopes of Kristen Stewart or Penelope Cruz prevailing on Oscar night but wow, DeBose aside, this is shaping up to be an exceptionally bland set of TV movie winners.”

Last weekend 1619 author Nikole Hannah Jones and others tweeted that news reporters, saddened and appalled by savage Russian attacks upon Ukraine — a white, middle-class, Eastern European nation whose president is a former professional comedian — are conveying insidious racism because they were somewhat less alarmed by similar war–torn scenarios in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Thus proclaimed the woke Comintern — too much empathy shown for whitey-white Ukranians is a highly suspicious and probably racist thing. News media professionals and especially in-the-field reporters are advised to take note.

Shamed and threatened, D’Agata has since apologized for his rhetorical misstep, which was basically prompted by conveying too much sympathy for Ukrainian citizens and refugees

This D’Agata-Hannah Jones mishegoss has ignited a firestorm of outrage directed at D’Agata and other like-minded reporters and media types who may be guilty of conveying racist bias against war-victims and refugees of color.

Earlier: Two days ago CBS News correspondent Charlie D’Agata apparently ignited this concern in a report about the Ukrainian carnage.

The above was a Western Union-style message from an industry guy that I received this evening — seven words that might shake the world John Reed-style, and which, right now, are certainly putting a slight chill up the backs of Netflix execs after CODA having won SAG’s Best Film Ensemble prize.

“You’re kidding,” I replied. “In terms of Best Picture? I mean, I get the fact that it feels a lot warmer and more huggable than The Power of the Dog. But CODA is basically a heart-massaging sitcom, an ABC after-school special, La Famille Belier, etc. It’s fine but calm down, for heaven’s sake! Eugenio Derbez (Mexican music teacher) saved it.”

Regional director–writer: “CODA has the heart factor going for it, despite its plodding execution at times. POTD has zero support from the industry. It hasn’t won any guild awards. Belfast could benefit but that feels hollow at this point. CODA could start picking up momentum from the SAG win.”

Scott Feinberg analysis

In a recent Gold Derby Best Actress discussion, Tom O’Neill stuck his neck out by saying there’s a lot of heartfelt support for The Eyes of Tammy Faye‘s Jessica Chastain. Right away Deadline‘s Pete Hammond said “I haven’t heard that,” and a second later IndieWire‘s Anne Thompson (or was it Variety‘s Tim Gray?) said the same.

O’Neill didn’t argue it out and later that day an HE commenter said “that was a gulp moment…O’Neill being shut down on the Chastain schpiel and being told ‘okay Tom, let it go.'”

And that, ladies and germs, set the stage for tonight’s wowser SAG awards surprise…Chastain has won for Best Actress!

None of the know-it-alls were that enthusiastic about her performance. They were all “yes, okay, a good performance but it was mainly about Jessica having worn a ton of silvery eye makeup.”

Which, generally speaking, low-rent SAG-AFTRA voters are always impressed by, of course. The first thing that your basic SAG rube votes for is “most acting,” and the second thing is “most dramatic physical alteration…weight gain or loss, fake nose (The Hours), loads of base and mascara,” etc.

Chastain beat The Lost Daughter‘s Olivia Colman, House of Gucci‘s Lady Gaga, Respect‘s Jennifer Hudson and Being The Ricardos‘ Nicole Kidman.

HE to Awards Daily‘s Sasha Stone: If I’m not mistaken you said not too long ago that Kidman is probably the front-runner for the Best Actress Oscar. If she ever was a front-runner, she’s certainly no longer that after tonight. She’s actually finished, I would say. (Probably.)

One by one the presumed front-runners have fallen by the wayside — first Spencer‘s Kristen Stewart, then Gaga, now Kidman.

HE to Academy: You can’t give the Oscar to Jennifer Hudson — well, you can but you won’t. And you don’t want to give Colman a second Oscar so soon after the first. And so the only tenable nominee to vote for is Parallel Mothers‘ Penelope Cruz! Who delivered the greatest performance among the five nominees anyway!

Posted last September:

“Last year’s woke Soderbergh Oscar telecast was the nadir…we realize that. The Oscars had been losing steam anyway, but the Union Station awards put a fork in it. In one fell swoop we destroyed whatever allure the Oscars once had.

“But this year will be different. We recognize it’s a live event television show and we must prioritize the television audience to increase viewer engagement and keep the show vital, kinetic, and relevant.” – A half-imagined quote from AMPAS honcho David Rubin.

John Mulaney’s SNL standup last night was excellent stuff. Delivered in his usual dry, ironic fashion, it was mostly about a drug dependency intervention that happened in late ‘20. It reminded me of my own ridiculous adventures in depravity, which I recalled four years ago in a piece called “Clam Chowder Sunday.”

From Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid (‘69) — written by William Goldman, performed by Strother Martin.

At the 34th annual USC Scripter awards, which honor scriptwriters and original source material authors as a tag team, The Lost Daughter‘s Maggie Gyllenhaal and novelist Elena Ferrante shared the top prize.

Which struck some of us as mildly surprising. It had been presumed in some quarters that Jane Campion‘s screenplay for The Power of the Dog, based on the same-titled 1967 Thomas Savage novel, would win instead, given Campion’s expected Best Director Oscar win plus Dog being well positioned to snag the Best Picture Oscar.

So does it mean anything that the Dog team fell short? Probably not but…

The other three film nominees were Passing, by Rebecca Hall and based on the book by Nella Larsen; Eric Roth, Jon Spaiths and Denis Villeneuve‘s Dune screenplay, based on Frank Herbert’s novel; and Joel Coen’s adaptation of William Shakespeare‘s The Tragedy of Macbeth.

Last night (Friday, 2.25) Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene spoke at the third annual America First Political Action Conference in Orlando, organized by white nationalist figurehead Nick Fuentes.

As Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Rep. Paul Gosar speak at this white supremacist, anti-Semitic, pro-Putin event, silence by Republican Party leaders is deafening and enabling.

All Americans should renounce this garbage and reject the Putin wing of the GOP now. pic.twitter.com/6fgpV6ohZ8

— Liz Cheney (@Liz_Cheney) February 26, 2022

“In Ohio, Senate candidate and Trump loyalist J.D. Vance said on a podcast that ‘I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another,’ and tweeted that ‘our leaders care more about Ukraine’s border than they do our own.’

“Fox’s most popular host, Tucker Carlson, pooh-poohed the idea that Putin is an enemy: ‘Why do I hate Putin so much?’ he said. ‘Has Putin ever called me a racist? Has he threatened to get me fired for disagreeing with him?'” — from Marc Fisher‘s 1.25 Washington Post story “How Republicans moved from Reagan’s ‘evil empire’ to Trump’s praise for Putin”

Donald Trump is a traitor and a national security threat. https://t.co/ymkBH4BdRO

— VoteVets (@votevets) February 27, 2022