Kelly Reichardt‘s First Cow has been nominated for four Gotham Awards, but I somehow can’t imagine it winning Best Feature. My 7.17.20 review explains why, for the most part. I know nothing, but here are some half-assed guesses about some of the likeliest winners:

BEST FEATURE: The Assistant, First Cow, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Nomadland, Relic. Likeliest Winner: Nomadland.

BEST DOCUMENTARY: 76 Days, City Hall, Our Time Machine, A Thousand Cuts, Time. Likeliest Winner: Possibly 76 Days (Covid in Wuhan) but I’ve really no clue…not the first hint.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: Bacurau (no!), Beanpole (maybe), Cuties, Identifying Features, Martin Eden, Wolfwalkers. Likeliest Winner: Not a damn clue. Martin Eden?

BINGHAM RAY BREAKTHROUGH DIRECTOR AWARD: Radha Blank, The Forty-Year-Old Version; Channing Godfrey Peoples, Miss Juneteenth; Alex Thompson, Saint Frances; Carlo Mirabella-Davis, Swallow; Andrew Patterson, The Vast of Night. Likeliest Winner: Not the first clue…nothing.

BEST SCREENPLAY: Bad Education, Mike Makowsky; First Cow, Jon Raymond, Kelly Reichardt; The Forty-Year-Old Version, Radha Blank; Fourteen, Dan Sallitt; The Vast of Night, James Montague, Craig Sanger. Likeliest Winner: Bad Education.

BEST ACTOR: Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal; Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom; Jude Law, In The Nest; John Magaro, First Cow; Jesse Plemons, I’m Thinking of Ending Things. Likeliest Winner: Chadwick Boseman.

BEST ACTRESS: Nicole Beharie, Miss Juneteenth; Jessie Buckley, I’m Thinking of Ending Things; Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari; Carrie Coon, The Nest; Frances McDormand, Nomadland. Likeliest Winners: Frances McDormand or Jessie Buckley.

BREAKTHROUGH ACTOR: Jasmine Batchelor, The Surrogate; Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami; Sidney Flanigan, Never Rarely Sometimes Always; Orion Lee, First Cow; Kelly O’Sullivan, Saint Frances. Likeliest Winner: Kingsley Ben-Adir.