Thompson predicts possible Murphy loss

“Nobody knows what will happen in the Best Picture category on Oscar night,” Riskybiz blog’s Anne Thompson begins. “I’m guessing The Departed is ahead of Little Miss Sunshine by a hair, and EW‘s Dave Karger agrees with me.

“While many Oscar prognosticators insist that Little Miss Sunshine is weak because it lacks a director nomination, or that Babel is strong because it has the most nominations (seven), I maintain that there is real affection for Little Miss Sunshine, which could win Best Original Screenplay and Best Supporting Actor, that Babel will likely win Score, that The Queen will win Helen Mirren, and that The Departed will win Director and Adapted Screenplay. This is the most even playing field in years.”

Whoa, whoa…did anyone catch that? A hard-nosed, no-nonsense Hollywood Reporter columnist whose fingers are constantly monitoring the industry pulse is saying that because “there is real affection for Little Miss Sunshine” that Alan Arkin “could” win Best Supporting Actor,

Decoding the code: Thompson also uses the “c” word regarding Michael Andt‘s chances of winning Best Original Screenplay, which are nearly 100% assured. In other words, she’s being her usual qualifying, don’t-stick-your-neck-out-too-far self by using the word “could” in relation to something she believes will possibly/ probably happen. In other words, she feels/believes/suspects that the LMS coattails may usher in the defeat of Eddie Murphy.

Hard out here for a nymph

Ju-Osh said this morning in a Hot Blog reply that Black Snake Moan director Craig Brewer and his Paramount Vantage marketing pallies “should scrap their rather generic ‘Everything’s hotter down south’ ad slogan for the ‘It’s hard out here for a nymph‘ gag slogan they debuted at Sundance. It’s easier to remember and a hell of a lot funnier.” Absolute 100% agreement from this corner. The former copy line. of course, is aimed at ahead-of-the-curve types who didn’t see Hustle and Flow and don’t get the synch-up with the “Hard Out Here for a Pimp” tune.

Carr, James on Best Foreign-Language Flicks

“These are the movies that are preoccupying the conversations that [have been happening] at the water cooler, in part because they are the most interesting films of the year — in any language.” So says N.Y. Times Oscar guy David Carr (a.k.a., “the Bagger”) about the five nominees for Best Foreign Language Film, and, if you follow the link, N.Y. Times columnist Caryn James as well.

Cavett on Marx Bros.

A story about Groucho and Chico Marx, passed along by N.Y. Times columnist Dick Cavett and called “Luck in the Afternoon.” If I described it as “hilarious,” a certain percentage would go “not funny enough.” (By the way, the anecdote about meeting anti-Semitism with claims of half-Jewishness is funnier with that Barry Goldwater joke about asking an anti-Semitic golf course manager if he could play nine holes, etc.)

Update: CHUD correspondent Devin Faraci just pointed out that it’s a “Times Select” piece, so I’m going to risk the wrath of Times Online staffers by pasting it here:

February 15, 2007, 7:44 pm

Luck in the Afternoon

Groucho stories, even if you’ve heard them, are still good. Like the well-known story of his daughter and the restricted country club pool. Groucho: “But my daughter’s only half-Jewish. Can she go in up to her waist?”

I have a particular fondness for the one I’m about to tell you, partly because I got it directly from Groucho. I may have told it in the 1982 documentary, “The Marx Brothers in a Nutshell.”

The setting is vaudeville. The young Marx brothers had barely heard of movies and were rollicking around the country as big stage stars and enjoying the fruits of fame, one being its proven effectiveness as an aphrodisiac. “You know my brother’s name is often mispronounced,” Groucho would say. “My uncle [Al Shean] who named us all pronounced it Chicko because of my brother’s monumental success with `chicks.’ He was catnip to all women. And we were opposites in other ways, too.”

They were playing somewhere in Iowa. One night while they were removing their makeup, there was a knock at the dressing room door and a middle-aged Jewish couple came in. After effusive compliments on the boys’ act, the husband said, “We know you boys are Jewish, and we thought you might like to come to our house on Friday night for a traditional Jewish dinner.” The invitation was accepted.

On Wednesday, Groucho and Chico were out strolling, and Chico, with his genius for numbers (and lack of it for gambling), noticed a house address. He said, “Isn’t that the number of those nice people’s house?” It was, and it was the house. They decided to pay a call.

They rang the bell and an attractive girl appeared. As luck (or something) would have it, there were the couple’s two pretty daughters. The parents were out.

Groucho: “Thanks to Chico’s skills in this area, in two shakes of a lamb’s tail we were out of our clothes and in bed with the two daughters. Balancing Chico’s great luck in getting us there, his ill luck dealt the next card. The bedroom door opened and there were the parents.

“Chico was more accustomed to this sort of predicament than I was, so I followed his example — which was grabbing up our clothes and high-tailing it out the window. Fortunately, we were on the ground floor. In any case, the penultimate thing the parents saw were our two buck-naked rear ends disappearing over the window sill. The ultimate thing they saw was Chico’s head reappearing momentarily, saying, ‘I hope this doesn’t affect Friday night.'”

“Speed-the-Plow” revelation

I loved Joe Mantegna and particularly Ron Silver as production execs Bobby Gould and Charlie Fox in the 1988 B’way production of David Mamet‘s Speed-the-Plow, but (this may sound like blather but screw it) I was charmed, aroused and finally knocked flat last night by Jon Tenney (Kyra Sedgwick‘s boyfriend in TNT’s The Closer) and Greg Germann (Talladega Nights, Friends With Money) as they played the same roles in the current Geffen Playhouse production.


Greg Germann, Jon Tenney following Thursday night’s performance in Westwood

Tenney and Germann, real-life single dads and off-stage pals, have a preternatural rhythm going with Mamet’s dialogue that feels like fusion jazz. It seemed faster and more agreeably manic than Mantegna and Silver’s back-and-forth, and definitely funnier. (Germann’s hyper physicality is a constant hoot.) I went to the play with a guarded attitude, having enjoyed but not quite loved the ’88 version. In part because Plow is engaging but not really first-tier Mamet, and because of the after-effect of Madonna’s tolerable-but-far-from-great performance. But the hilarity came through in spades last night, and I left with a different attitude.

My favorite Germann performance before this was the computer geek in ’94’s Clear and Present Danger…no longer. I haven’t seen much of Tenney because I barely watch the tube, but last night was a wake-up.

Calling Alicia Silverstone‘s performance as “Karen” — the office temp who temporarily sidetracks the power-hungry Gould into wanting to make a movie about radiation and the end of the world — better than Madonna’s sounds like damnation with faint praise, so let’s say she’s quite good — snappy, emotionally in tune, alive in the moment — by any yardstick you want to use. (The only weird thing is that she was wearing stockings under jeans in the second scene of Act One.)


Silver, Madonna and Mantegna in ’88 production

There was a q & a with director Randall Arney during an after-party following the show, and the moderator started things off by asking if Speed-the-Plow was a comedy or a tragedy. “David feels it’s a comedy,” said Arney. “A comedy about the end of the world.” No good work is one thing or another, of course. Here’s the great Peter Ustinov explaining his feelings about how all mature dramas and comedies are always a blend of high and low, darkness and light.

Tourtelotte considers upset

“If all goes well for movie musical Dreamgirls, Oscar night will be a dream come true for supporting actors Jennifer Hudson and Eddie Murphy,” a 2.16 story by Reuters reporter Bob Tourtellotte begins. “But if history is any indicator and things go bad, it could end up a nightmare.” Holy mother of God, will somebody straighten this guy out? Another neg-head looking to rain on Murphy’s parade, or at least willing to consider the possibility that the expected coronation might not happen.

Poland misses “Zodiac”

A little voice told me a few days ago that David Poland would do an au contraire on David Fincher‘s Zodiac. I knew it, I knew it, I knew it. He didn’t get United 93 either, which also favors a particular atmospheric realism in place of conventional plotting and clear-cut thematic delivery with a red bow on it. The man who loved Quills, Finding Forrester, Munich and Dreamgirls tends to miss films that don’t fulfill certain dramatic or structural criteria that he carries around in his head (where’s the ending? too long! too Pakula!) and which have a way of seeping into your consciousness rather than putting on a suite and tie and knocking on the front door and saying, “Hi, I’m a really smart movie that’s saying something plain and true that you can’t miss…may I come in?”

The African Queen

There are several bootleg African Queen DVDs on Amazon, all of apparently inferior quality. (Or so I’ve read on message boards.) I don’t know who owns the right to this classic film in North America, and I don’t know if the owner has managed a restoration of any kind (which I’m told would be costly), but a first-rate, Criterion-level, beaucoup- bells-and-whistles two-disc set is obviously overdue. I’d plunk down $20 or $30 for a copy the first day. If I couldn’t wangle a freebie, I mean.

I wrote DVD Newsletter‘s Doug Pratt and here’s what he said: “I believe it is still a Fox title and I imagine restoring the source material to presentable condition is an expensive endeavor, though as a result it is one of the few remaining significant titles that is not yet available. Actually, it may not still be under Fox’s control, since it was originally one of those independent production/United Artists distribu- tion deals where the producers retained a lot of the rights. Someone holding out for the best deal, plus the daunting expense of the restoration, could also be a factor in the delay.”

What a trip it would be to see this 1951 Technicolor beauty in HD-DVD or Blu-Ray. Some of the location footage in The African Queen looks faded and grainy, like it was shot on a hand-cranked 16mm Bell and Howell, but the sound-stage stuff is almost psychedelic in its lusciousness. You could take a bath in it.

And please, when the DVD finally happens, no matting of the image. The film was shot in full-frame 1.33 to 1. It should ideally be presented in a windowbox aspect ratio (i.e., thin black bars on the sides to give the image the perfect boxy shape), which is the only true-blue way of showing pre-1952 Academy 1.33 to 1 films.

Howell on “Ghost Rider”

The Toronto Star‘s Pete Howell got out his Blackberry and wrote his Ghost Rider review straight from the theatre last night. “It’s a process I call BlackBerry Spanking, although this time I actually gave more than one star,” he writes. “Ghost Rider actually gets 2-1/2 stars on account being smart enough to know it’s stupid.

“As eternal damnation goes, it’s a toss-up for Nicolas Cage,” his review begins. “Would he rather face the razzing until Doomsday he’s going to endure for dressing up in a bear costume to play a psycho cop in last year’s The Wicker Man remake (get that Razzie Award ready!) or would he rather be Satan’s errand boy until hell freezes over?

“I’m guessing he chooses door No. 2, as seen in his new film Ghost Rider. It’s all comic book stuff. And besides, his career couldn’t possibly slide any deeper into the flames. Cage’s human character is weirder than his skeletal one. He chugs jelly beans out of a martini glass, talks to himself in the mirror and listens to The Carpenters on his home stereo

“But damned if this one shouldn’t make your so-bad-it’s-good list — especially when Wes Bentley shows up as a bad Elvis impersonator from Hell whom Ghost Rider has to send to Heartbreak Hotel. Cage has finally found a movie where it’s okay to chew the scenery — or even to set it on fire. A Ghost Rider franchise beckons. And with the lovely Eva Mendes by his side, a romantic spin-off: Beauty and the Briquette.”

Bay speaks to MTV.com

“There are tons of people [who] hate me and hate my movies. But hey, my movies have made a lot of money, two-something billion dollars. That’s a lot of tickets. They said that I wrecked cinema. They said that I cut too fast and now you see it in movies everywhere. It’s easy to bash a movie but until they know hard it is to actually make one. Do I take pride in people knowing my style? I think it’s nice people know a director has a style. And you can reinvent yourself too.” — Michael Bay talking to MTV.com’s Josh Horowitz about Transformers.

Best Picture odds…again

I couldn’t find enough Academy people to talk about who’s going to win Best Picture, but…but nothing. Nobody knows anything and that includes me. If anyone’s predicting anything, they’re saying it’s Babel because (a) it has the highest number of prestige nominations (i.e., seven), (b) because the lack of both a directing and an editing nomination for Little Miss Sunshine suggests a Best Picture weakness, and (c) because the ceremonial Martin Scorsese Best Director bequeathing is considered sufficient for The Departed.