I don’t know exactly how it happened, but the Best Actress chances of Annette Bening were restored and then some by the New York Film Critics Circle today. She was named Best Actress by that venerated org, and is now no longer seen as being on the ropes…saved! The Kids Are All Right also scored surprisingly with a Best Screenplay award for Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg, and — here’s a real shocker — Kids costar Mark Ruffalo, whom no one believed had any kind of shot at all, won Best Supporting Actor.

I haven’t done the reporting (I just came out of an interview with Sofia Coppola at the Standard) but I’m guessing that the reason Bening won for Best Actress is the same reason that Black Swan‘s Natalie Portman lost. Older women (including older female critics, a few of whom belong to the NYFCC) aren’t that big on Black Swan because it’s chock full of female nightmares that give them the willies. They just don’t like watching a film about a female character crippled by anxieties and insecurities, and who feels threatened by a female competitor, and who is goaded and manipulated by a controlling stage mom as well as a powerful alpha male at her workplace.

The Kids Are All Right is a female-directed drama about flawed women, yes, but the main characters, played by Bening and Julianne Moore, are feisty and willful, uncertain at times but far from weak, and the principal male figure in the film (i.e., Ruffalo) is basically passive and kid-like, and is ultimately defeated and shunted aside at the end. So Kids was, from a female perspective, a much more positive-minded, constructive-image thing to celebrate than Portman and/or Swan. Others in the NYFCC obviously joined the older-female contingent to make a majority (i.e., older mainstream-taste guys), but the NYFCC Kids win, I suspect, happened as much for political reasons (i.e., symbolic female self-image issues) as artistic ones.

The Social Network was named Best Picture, and David Fincher was named Best Director. The King’s Speech star Colin Firth won for Best Actor, and The Fighter‘s Melissa Leo won for Best Supporting Actress. Matthew Libatique‘s cinematography for Black Swan was honored, and The Illusionist beat Toy Story 3 for Best Animated Film. Inside Job won for Best Non-Fiction Film (i.e, Best Doc). OIivier Assayas‘s Carlos won for Best Foreign Language Film, and Animal Kingdom was named Best First Feature.

The Southeast Film Critics Association has totally submitted to boilerplate expectations by naming The Social Network as the best of 2010’s Top Ten, and by giving The King’s Speech‘s Colin Firth their Best Actor award and naming Black Swan‘s Natalie Portman as Best Actress. They surprised a bit by going with TKS‘s Geoffrey Rush for Best Supporting Actor and True Grit‘s Hailee Steinfeld for Best Supporting Actress. The Social Network also won for Best Ensemble, and David Fincher won for Best Director.

The New York Film Critics Circle is deliberating as we speak. Publicist Jeff Hill says that the winners will be announced in bulk “at the end [of the voting]…noonish.” In years past, the NYFCC website has revealed the winners as they were decided upon, category by category. Now it’s just sitting there like a dead steer, flies buzzing around, nothing updated since the winners were announced a year ago, not even acknowledging the date of the 2010 vote…nothing. This is not cool.

12:29 Update: Jeff Hill writes that the NYFCC is “halfway through now…patience, please.”

Tron: Legacy “may be the best movie I’ve ever seen that possesses a truly awful script,” says Film and Felt‘s Gabe Leibowitz. “There’s no sugarcoating it — the screenplay alternates between predictably hokey (a sunrise sequence is particularly galling), and flat-out cheesy (most of the dialogue exchanges).

“It’s less the romantic subplot between the freewheeling, seemingly-orphaned Sam Flynn (Garrett Hedlund) and the mysterious Quorra (Olivia Wilde ), which thankfully doesn’t get enough screentime to become a serious detriment. Rather, it’s the father/son relationship between former gaming/technology mogul Kevin Flynn (Jeff Bridges, reprising his role in 1982?s original Tron) and Sam that’s especially offensive on the ears. Seemingly every other exchange between the two contains some form of cloying schmaltz that should evoke regular snickers from the audience.

“The acting isn’t any great shakes either. Bridges is passable at times, but too often seems to be channeling The Dude from The Big Lebowski: seriously, he should never be allowed to say the word ‘man’ again. The rest of the cast mostly looks the part, but lack any sort of real acting chops.

“But you didn’t go to the IMAX theater near you to listen to Kevin or Sam wax poetic, did you? You came to break out the popcorn and get gloriously lost in [this] sweeping world, and here, Tron: Legacy succeeds brilliantly. With a first-rate, pulse-pounding soundtrack by Daft Punk and dazzling CGI, the action is rhythmic and often mesmerizing. A battle in ‘Zeus’s lounge’ is absolutely riveting (and Michael Sheen‘s Zeus is easily the coolest character in the entire film — he could easily be a droog), and indeed, most of the fights, chases and escapes are intense and thoroughly engrossing.

“Like Avatar, Tron: Legacy is more of an impressive experience rather than a great film, but there’s less pretension here, if not quite the capitalization of the IMAX technology.

“Tron: Legacy seems to be very comfortable with what it is — namely, a video game fan’s wet dream. At some point, all gamers have fantasized about being transported into their console, be it the vast lands of Final Fantasy VII or the battlefields of Call of Duty. Here, they get to experience it in all the modern, hyper-digitalized glory. Be sure to see Tron: Legacy in IMAX and with friends. It’s very entertaining, and accomplishes its goals with gusto — its strengths are so prominent that it’s easy to view its weaknesses as quibbles rather than serious detractions, presuming you go in with proper expectations.”

Yesterday’s Oscar Poker (#11) was mainly about (a) reacting to the Los Angeles Film Critics Association award, (b) The Fighter and (c) Tron. It was just Sasha and myself — boxoffice.com‘s Phil Contrino was absent with family matters. Here’s an independent, non-iTunes link. “Tremendous for The Social Network…this was an anti-Natalie Portman vote… Kenneth Turan hated Black Swan…Annette Bening has a lot of friends,” etc.

Last night I asked six handicappers — Scott Feinberg, Gold Derby‘s Tom O’Neil, Indiewire‘s Anne Thompson, Deadline‘s Pete Hammond, The Wrap‘s Steve Pond, Entertainment Weekly‘s Dave Karger — to review the possibly diminishing Best Picture status of The King’s Speech, and to try and explain which LAFCA members pushed through yesterday’s curious honorings of Mother‘s Kim Hye-Ja and A Prophet‘s Niels Arestrup.

More specifically, I asked what kind of Best Picture heat does The King’s Speech have in the wake of being blanked by several critics groups over the past few days, and are the Gurus of Gold, most of whom have been staunch King’s Speech allies, finally ready to fold the tent? And two, what critic or major columnist or blogger has been a champion of LAFCA’s Best Actress winner Kim Hye-Ja or their Best Supporting Actor winner Niels Arestrup? Who were their LAFCA champions? I don’t understand how these two, of all the potential winners, won with LAFCA.

Gold Derby‘s Tom O’Neil: “Oscar pundits may give the best performance of 2010 as smug know-it-alls, but they’re sheep like everyone else and will jump off the King’s Speech bandwagon and onto the Social Network one pronto if it really takes off thanks to the crix kudos. Let’s see what the Noo Yawkers do [today]. And LAFCA has always prided itself on picking wacky stuff – like Yolande Moreau (Seraphine) last year in that category or Vera Farmiga in Down to the Bone in 2005. They love to be esoteric and populist at the same time, just to show how cool they are in both ways.”

TheWrap‘s Steve Pond: “As a card-carrying King’s Speech bitch, I ain’t scatterin’ yet. The King’s Speech was never going to get its support from the critics. It was going to get its support from the guilds and from the rank-and-file Academy members. In fact, I’m surprised it got as much support from LAFCA as it did, and to me that means it might get a critics award or two before it’s done.

“Two things could make me reconsider. One, if TKS doesn’t get guild support, that’ll be significant. But I don’t think it’s very likely. And two, while I always figured that The Social Network would win a good number of critics awards, I didn’t think it’d run the table the way The Hurt Locker did. If it does — and we’ve got a long way to go before that happens — then I might have to change my mind.

“As for Kim Hye-Ja and Niels Arestrup, the impression I get is that LAFCA is deeply divided between mainstream folks and arty contrarians. The contrarians know they’ll never carry the day when it comes to Best Picture and such, so they focus on the acting races. Usually they only get one of those choices through: Yolande Moreau in ’09, Vlad Ivanov in ’07, Sacha Baron Cohen in ’06. I guess the mainstreamers were more divided in the acting categories this year, so the art-monster bloc saw an opening and took it.

“Nobody except Guy Lodge saw Arestrup coming, and nobody saw Kim Hye-ja. But she did get amazing reviews out of Cannes ’09, didn’t she? Her biggest champion, I’m guessing, is John Powers, whose Vogue review of Mother is quoted all over the place.”

Deadline‘s Pete Hammond: “No one expected The King’s Speech [to prevail with critics groups]. Critics groups are voting in packs again and The Social Network is the flavor of this month. I don’t agree with the idea that because some critics groups like to copy each other that this means bad things for The Kings Speech. Doesn’t compute. Gurus and Derby predix are about Oscars. But good for TSN, a fine film that deserves its moment in the sun.

“As for LAFCA they always go rogue in acting. I heard from one person in the room that there was an active e-mail movement among certain members to name Dogtooth Best Picture, but it didn’t go anywhere once the meeting got going today. There are always champions.”

Entertainment Weekly‘s Dave Karger: “I still think The King’s Speech is going to be a big Academy film a la Chicago. So I’m not scattering. I knew The Social Network would be a critics film all along. And as for LAFCA, they often go weird on best actress. Remember Vera Farmiga for Down to the Bone?”

Indiewire‘s Anne Thompson: “I always knew critics wouldn’t go for The King’s Speech, although it is in the mix. The Academy will go for it. We’re looking at a two-film race. Critics help films become must-see, but are not essential for Oscar contention.

“[Most] critics are male. Hurt Locker excepted, The Kids Are All Right and Winter’s Bone aren’t getting critics wins [because they’re primarily about women]. But they will still be in mix. Black Swan the critics like, Academy members less so. [The win by Kim Hye-Ja with LAFCA win tells you that] the Best Actress race is all over the map. Critics often choose to go their own way. LAFCA couldn’t agree on anyone else.”

Wells dispute: The Best Actress race is not all over the map — it’s Portman’s to lose.

Scott Feinberg of scottfeinberg.com: “The LA Film Critics Association likes to throw in at least one or two snobbish choices every year — i.e., films/performances that exhausted their Oscar eligibility the previous year (i.e. Niels Arestrup for A Prophet) and/or films/performances that, fairly or unfairly, never would have had a shot with the Academy in any year (i.e. Kim Hye-Ja in Mother). This is the first and last that you will hear of either of those people this awards season, just as it was the first and last we heard of LAFCA’s 2009 best actress Yolande Moreau (Seraphine), 2007 best supporting actor Vlad Ivanov (4 Months, 3 Weeks & 2 Days), 2006 best supporting actress Luminita Gheorghiu (The Death of Mr. Lazarescu), etc.

“As for The King’s Speech, the Gurus of Gold are not going to scatter — and they may not be wrong. Though I personally think that The Social Network will top The King’s Speech at the Oscars, we must be careful not to over-interpret the results of critics groups. The Academy may sometimes take more notice of a film because of its popularity with critics, but they don’t necessarily follow their lead. Never forget 2005, when Brokeback Mountain won virtually every critics award in the world…and then lost to Crash, which had won virtually none, at the Oscars.”

Wells Exception: I believe/suspect that the Academy’s reactionary old-fart contingent (i.e., the ones who voted against Brokeback Mountain rather than for Crash) has been outflanked by younger, hipper members over the last five years. I don’t think that group, which also stood by Chicago, matters quite as much today in the scheme of things.

The Indiana Film Journalists Association has given its Best Film award to The Social Network, and their Best Screenplay award to TSN‘s Aaron Sorkin. Inception‘s Chris Nolan won for Best Director, Black Swan‘s Natalie Portman was named Best Actress, James Franco won Best Actor for 127 Hours, Hailee Steinfeld took Best Supporting Actress for True Grit (size of her role is meaningless — the fact that she’s young and brand-new means she’s a supporting actress…period) and The Fighter‘s Christian Bale was named Best Supporting Actor.

With The King’s Speech and Kids Are All Right Best Actress contender Annette Bening having been blanked so far by the NBR, D.C.-area critics, Boston Film Critics, NYFCO and LAFCA film awards (and with today’s New York Film Critics Circle voters expected to bypass them also), it was fair to ask last night if they were going to be nominated by anyone or anything except by the chummy, highly political SAG and AMPAS…or whether it was time to admit they’ve been over-hyped all along.

Do I hear a cavalry charge? Hold on…listen! Tah-da-dat-da-dat-da-DAT-da-DAT-da-dah-dah-da-dah-da-DAT-da-DAT-da-dahhh! It’s the nominations from the Broadcast Film Critics Association — i.e., the Critics Choice awards — thundering over a ridge, horse hooves kicking up a cloud of dust…saved! Because they’re carrying 11 nominations for The King’s Speech (including Best Picture, Best Actor/Colin Firth, Best Supporting Actor/Geoffrey Rush, Best Director/Tom Hooper, etc.) and 4 nominations for The Kids Are All Right, including a Best Actress nomination for Bening.

The biggest BFCA winner of all is Darren Aronofsky‘s Black Swan with an “unprecedented” 12 nominations. True Grit matches Speech‘s 11 nominations while Inception got 10 nominations and The Social Network accumulated 9.

One huge note of regret: Another Year‘s Lesley Manville has been shut out of BFCA Best Actress contention. The lady is too great an actress and has given too searing a performance for any further shut-outs to occur. Please — let’s not regard this as a bellwether.

The Critics Choice winners will be announced at the Hollywood Palladium on Friday, 1.14.11 at 9 pm, and will be broadcast again (for the fourth year in a row) by VH1. It will also be the first year the show will also be aired internationally.

This morning a critic in a discussion board pointed out that at least three of the six actresses nominated by the BFCA for Best Actress received on-screen oral pleasuring in their respective films — Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right, Natalie Portman in Black Swan and Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine.