Likeliest 2020 Best Picture Contenders

Said it before, repeating for emphasis: Dexter Fletcher‘s Rocketman (Paramount, 5.31) may meet with commercial success, but it’s absolutely not going to become a Bohemian Rhapsody-like awards contender.

As I wrote a few days ago, Taron Egerton‘s imitation of Elton John‘s signing voice doesn’t cut it — and nobody will buy into a John biopic in which “Elton” sounds like a cruise-ship imitator. On top of which Hollywood Elsewhere despises Egerton for the two Kingsman movies plus the Robin Hood debacle. So forget it — Rocketman is strictly a commercial playdate.

But the following seven films are almost certain to be Best Picture-nominated (except for the Tarantino, which I have vague doubts about):

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No Excuse for Donen Absence

Last night’s death-reel sequence ran 4:21, but the cavalcade of faces only lasted for 3:29. It began with Susan Anspach at the 24-second mark and ended with Albert Finney at 3:43. The Academy had a little less than a minute’s worth of wiggle room. They surely could have fit in the great Stanley Donen, who passed the day before yesterday.

I know enough about editing and re-editing a video piece that adding a single visual element isn’t a big deal these days. If they had wanted to include Donen, they could have done it. They were lazy, plain and simple.

And while they were at it, they could have included Andy Vajna, Gary Kurtz and R. Lee Ermey. I understand about omitting Carol Channing — she was a Broadway gal.

Gleiberman’s Final Word

In the eyes of history, the SJW toxics (or, if you will, the virtue-signalling Stalinists) lost last night. Their bullshit is evaporating into vapor as we speak. They can stomp and whine and punch the refrigerator all they want, but Green Book took all their slings and arrows and won the Oscar anyway.

But before we put this stinking battle to bed, a final word from Variety‘s Owen Gleiberman, who liked Green Book as much as I did and lamented the relentless p.c. putdowns:

“Set in 1962, Green Book is a feel-good liberal buddy movie that’s like a cross between Driving Miss Daisy and Rain Man, and 20 years ago it would have been a slam-dunk Oscar triumph.

“But it came up against a newly purist and progressive mindset, one that said, in essence: If you take a white character’s struggle and make it the moral/spiritual ‘equivalent’ of a black character’s struggle, you’ll be saying that the pain of the oppressor is equal to the pain of the oppressed — and that, in itself, is a racist lie.

“As someone who believes that Green Book is a powerful, moving, and emotionally complex film, I’d push back against that argument by saying: The movie isn’t equating the experience of black oppression and white blindness. It’s saying that they co-exist in the world — and that for the purposes of this movie, it will give them equal screen time.

“My point here is not to re-fight that fight; it’s simply to say that Green Book is a film that got transfigured in the culture. It started off as unabashed liberal comfort food; it ended up as a movie that divided as much as it united. It became a political hot potato, and so voting for it wasn’t simply like pulling the lever for Driving Miss Daisy or Rain Man — for the kind of intimate and uplifting relationship-of-opposites heart-tugger that has often triumphed at the Oscars. Voting for it became, at least for some Academy members, a political act in a different way: a knowing defense of what’s left of the Hollywood status quo. It became a rebellion against the rebellion.

“You could say, of course, that the victory of Green Book came down to one elemental thing: A lot of people in the Academy really loved Green Book. Fair enough. But my point is that its win last night still played as an upset, as the triumph of the underdog.

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110% Agreement

“Without a host to guide the writers’ room, the banter doled out to presenters can feel a bit aimless. Trust Awkwafina and John Mulaney to make so much of their time presenting two short films that viewers at home were surely asking, ‘Why didn’t they host?’ From the nerves they cutely faked to the surprise they evidenced when, yes, they got to present a second category, let this be considered their audition tape for next year.” — N.Y. Times “carpetbagger” Kyle Buchanan in a 2.25 “Oscar’s Best & Worst Moments” piece.

Game Is Hopelessly Rigged

In the view of writer Joelle Monique, Green Book had to be racist because it was made by white guys. The fact that Mahershala Ali was easily as much of a strong collaborator as director Peter Farrelly cuts no ice with her. She’s basically saying that no matter how you slice it, “dominant white guy input” guarantees racism, or certainly a lack of a fair perspective.

Which is another way of saying, in a broader sense, that in any realm white-guy dominance can come to no good end because white culture has been historically incapable of fairness or justice, and is not likely to change its spots. There is abundant truth in that viewpoint, but on the other hand what are amiable, well-educated white guys supposed to do?

The basic idea is that even well-educated, urban-residing fair-skinned folks who wear Bruno Magli lace-ups are fundamentally bad news no matter what. Maybe so. Hollywood Elsewhere regrets its whiteness as well as the unfortunate genetic inheritance that I was sadly cursed with when I took my first breath.

On the other hand I yam what I yam. I’m a curious, well-educated, fairly liberal dude…world’s full of guys like me. I say “please” and “thank you” all the time. I observe traffic laws and have good taste in music, and I watch TV with headphones when it gets late. I’m not going to kill myself anytime soon, and I’m going to work hard and try to be fair with everyone I run into. And if that’s not good enough for certain parties, tough.