Earlier today TasteofCinema tweeted a question that many of us have contemplated: “What’s the best movie you’ve ever seen that takes place in a single location?”

HE reply: Obviously and incontestably there are two films at the top of the list — Alfred Hitchcock‘s Lifeboat (’44) and Sidney Lumet‘s 12 Angry Men (’57). No other single-location films are anywhere near as good, and that includes Louis Malle‘s My Dinner with Andre (’81) and Hitchcock’s Rope (’48).

None of these veteran know-it-alls — Gold Derby‘s Tom O’Neil, Deadline‘s Pete Hammond, IndieWire‘s Anne Thompson, Blackfilm‘s Wilson Morales — address the woke mind-virus factor, or the fact that the award-season mindset has become fatally myopic. Industry types living and thinking and spitballing on their own tight little island with no awareness of or interest in what. Joe and Jane Popcorn might think about all this. O’Neil: “Joe and Jane who?”

Plus the inescapable fact that none of the supposed Best Picture contenders are home runs. Except, that is, for Top Gun: Maverick. Give credit to Hammond, at least, for stating that Top Gun: Maverick was probably a big #2 favorite when Academy members were filling out their ballots.

Hammond also notes that he’s heard stories about Academy members turning off Everything Everywhere All At Once as they try to watch it at home. Quote: “Some people are really trying [to get it], like it’s homework. [But] it’s so easy to turn off.” Translation: The over-45 crowd hates it.

Thompson on EEAAO: “I tried to tell somebody about what the EEAAO plot is, and I failed.” Also: “A lot people find The Fablemans flat and not exciting.”

It was announced earlier today that Ben Affleck and Matt Damon‘s Air, a fact-based sports marketing drama about Nike salesman Sonny Vaccaro, will receive a wide theatrical release from Amazon on Wednesday, April 5.

This will be Amazon’s first major theatrical effort since Mindy Kaling’s Late Night, a Sundance acquisition, opened and underperformed in the summer of 2019.

Question: Was I crazy for thinking that Air, in which Damon will play Vaccaro, would be an Oscar season thing?

Two possible answers: One, Air might not be as good as it needs to be to compete against other ’23 award-seekers. Or two, things are changing and the Oscar-chasing game ain’t what it used to be.

Air follows in the wake of Ari Aster‘s Beau Is Afraid, another seemingly high-pedigree feature film by a name-brand auteur that has forsaken an award-season strategy in favor of an April opening.

Things are changing and an April opening doesn’t necessarily mean what it used to mean — i.e., an interesting film that doesn’t quite make it, and therefore doesn’t have sufficient award-season mojo. Again, that’s a cachet that used to apply but not necessarily in a January 2023 context.

Explained by friendo: “As we learned in 2022, there is much less value in the Oscar race today…contaminated by woke critics and their anti-populist priorities, the Oscar brand is so bad that smart producers aren’t necessarily aiming for an Oscar association…it used to be that Oscar-buzz movies made money or at least enjoyed a certain elevated status…now it’s almost the opposite.

“Oscar movies have become about eating your vegetables and raising your social consciousness….fewer people are interested in them, because of the woke thing or whatever. Or because Millennials and Zoomers have become totally alienated from the brand.”

Let’s presume that Air is a highly-engaging, first-rate film. (It certainly feels like a humdinger.) It’s the first behind-the-camera collaboration between co-screenwriters Damon and Affleck (along with Alex Convery) since their Oscar-winning Good Will Hunting, on top of which Affleck, a proven helmer, is the director. Plus the story is about audacity and pathfinding (somewhat reminiscent of Bennett Miller‘s Moneyball) in the sports business, and…well, it sounds classy and cool and proletariat.

Plus it’s fortified by a cool-sounding cast (Jason Bateman, Viola Davis, Chris Tucker, Marlon Wayans, Chris Messina). Plus it’s the first film produced by Affleck and Damon’s Artists Equity.

12 years ago Moneyball bought into the whole Toronto-premiere, critically-supported, award-season route. But today it was announced that Amazon will open Air on Wednesday, April 5th, or roughly two and a half months hence.

Deadline‘s Anthony D’Alessandrio: “I hear Air will have a longer theatrical window than Amazon Studios’ recent limited theatrical releases, before hitting Prime Video in more than 240 countries and territories. It truly is a first-of-its-kind arrangement for the studio as Amazon will distribute the film globally, with Warner Bros. Pictures handling international as part of its distribution pact with Amazon’s MGM. Amazon Studios only had U.S. on Late Night, not global rights.”

Jeff and Sasha‘s latest Oscar Poker (recorded two days ago) is up and running. For love, for formula, for comfort and for the joyful shirking of 2022 Best Picture nominees that many respect but nobody really loves…be honest. It was another weakish year, and the only film that really bull’s-eyed according to its own self-=imposed terms was Top Gun: Maverick. Stop arguing! Within the prison cell of general Academy preferences TG:M is the only hot mama that truly sings.

If you want 2022’s actual best films, I posted them on 12.30.22: 1. Empire of Light, 2. Close, 3. Happening, 4. Vengeance, 5. She Said, 6. Emily The Criminal, 7. Christian Mungiu‘s R.M.N., 8. Top Gun: Maverick; 9. Avatar: The Way of Water; 10. Tar (despite the many irritations). But we’re playing an Academy game now.

Posted on 1.21.23: “Sasha Stone and I just finished an hour-long chat about Tuesday morning’s (1.24) announcement of the ’23 Oscar nominations, and the obvious fact that Top Gun: Maverick, which will certainly be among the chosen few, is the only prospective nominee that feels truly commanding. Authoritatively, I mean.

“Despite the familiarity and the formulaic strategy, TG:M is the only finalist that feels home–runnish…not to mention the achievement of having joined forces with Avatar: The Way of Avatar to save and even restore a classic, life-giving Hollywood dynamic (thrills, popcorn, warm seats) to exhibition itself…there’s no ignoring the metaphor.”

Again, the latest Substack link.