I know that Love & Mercy‘s Paul Dano isn’t anyone’s idea of the leading contender for Best Supporting Actor, but in my heart he stands head and shoulders above everyone else — period.  If you don’t like it, tough. Dano sang “You Still Believe In Me” with Brian Wilson‘s band just a few days ago — you want me to discount that? If you’re not listening at least partly to your heart in mid-October you probably don’t have one. There’s lots of time to go pure handicapper. Yes, the top BSA contenders in HE’s Oscar Balloon (re-posted this morning) tell a slightly different story: Robert DeNiro, Joy (NYS); Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies; Mark Ruffalo or Michael Keaton, Spotlight; Paul Dano, Love & Mercy (EP); Tom Hardy, The Revenant (NYS). Heel-nippers: Michael Shannon, 99 Homes, Freeheld (EP); Benicio Del Toro, Sicario; Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation; Jason Segel, End of the Tour; Sylvester Stallone, Creed (NYS); Ryan Gosling, The Big Short (NYS).

A new Star Wars: The Force Awakens trailer pops on Monday Night Football tonight. I’m such a huge sports fan that I had to check a Time Warner channel chart to remember where ESPN and ESPN2 are. I’ve honestly never watched Monday Night Football in my entire life…not once. I can see the trailer later tonight. Know what I’m doing instead? Taking another gander at Charlie Kaufman‘s Anomalisa. Because I’m always a bit shagged and fagged during Telluride and I probably didn’t give it my full attention. 75% or 80% but not 100%. Early to mid morning is the best time of day to see a film. That’s when I’m seeing Burnt tomorrow — 10 am.

Scroll over to 2:25 for Eddie Murphy‘s Bill Cosby impersonation — its worth it. It actually begins around 2:55 pm. And yet by joking about him and making everyone laugh, Murphy is sorta kinda saying “Yeah, Bill fucked up bad with the serial rapin’ and all but he’s still, you know, Bill Cosby…still a funny guy, right?”

I’ve never even fantasized about choking anyone in my life…please. And I would certainly be appalled if I saw a plane passenger choking another for any reason at all. But I’d be lying if I said I didn’t derive a certain…uhm, faint satisfaction from the Southwest choking story, which appeared today on all the news outlets: “A Southwest Airlines jet was forced to turn back and make an emergency landing at LAX Sunday night after a male passenger allegedly began choking a woman because she reclined her seat, witnesses said.” I’ve long advocated a much more restrained and civilized response to seat recliners, which is to “accidentally” spill scalding black coffee on their head and then profusely apologize and offer to get napkins. And then repeat if they won’t take the hint.

Towards the end of his largely positive review of Cary Fukunaga‘s Beasts of No Nation, Matt Zoller Seitz notes there are aspects of the film “that feel somehow untrustworthy, or at least not immediately defensible. And it’s a short hop from there to the realization that this is the second recent, highly acclaimed film about dark-skinned people not directed by an African or an African-American that has the word Beasts in the title.” In other words, Fukunaga and Beasts of the Southern Wild director Benh Zeitlin may have conveyed a strain of unconscious racism — dark skin, beastly behavior, collective shudder.

“After that,” Seitz goes on, “you might realize that the Western commercial cinema almost never tells stories of Africa, except to sentimentalize European colonialism (Out of Africa, An African Dream, The Ghost in the Darkness) or show the depths of depravity of which Africans are capable (Hotel Rwanda, The Last King of Scotland, this).” Nobody wants to defend films that sentimentalize European colonialism by painting flattering portraits of racist exploiters like Karen Blixen, but could Seitz be right about Rwanda, Scotland and Fukunaga’s film — did their makers focus on savage, bloodthirsty behavior on the part of certain African tribes and leaders to suggest there’s something unholy under their skin?

There’s a certain kind of heartwarming relationship drama that is more or less based on the Heidi formula. It always involves an older grump and a younger person — a long-lost son or daughter, a neighbor, a grandson or granddaughter, a naive co-worker. I’ve noticed that the press-release synopsis for these films almost always end with the following: “The two find common ground and form an unlikely bond which changes their lives in unexpected ways.” (The latest usage arrived today in a press release for Arnold Grossman‘s The Boat Builder, which costars Christopher Lloyd, Jane Kaczmarek and David Lascher.) I’m talking about the press release writers more than the filmmakers. If I was hired to bang this stuff out, I would suggest to my employer that perhaps we might form an unlikely bond by resolving to avoid tiresome cliches, and that in so doing we might change our lives in unexpected ways.

From a 10.12 piece by The Nation‘s William Greider: “Fresh chatter among Washington insiders is not about whether the Republican Party will win in 2016 but whether it will survive. The fear that Donald Trump might actually become the GOP nominee is the ultimate nightmare. Some gleeful Democrats are rooting (sotto voce) for the Donald, though many expect he will self-destruct.

“Nevertheless, Republicans face a larger problem. The GOP finds itself trapped in a marriage that has not only gone bad but is coming apart in full public view. After five decades of shrewd strategy, the Republican coalition Richard Nixon put together in 1968 — welcoming the segregationist white South into the Party of Lincoln — is now devouring itself in ugly, spiteful recriminations.

I’ve never had the slightest interest in seeing John Sturges‘ allegedly mediocre Underwater (’55), but the notion hit me after glancing at this Big Short poster. But it’s not streaming so I guess not. Sturges’ Bad Day at Black Rock, a highly respected noir with Spencer Tracy, also opened in ’55 and in fact only a month earlier than Underwater — obviously a straight paycheck gig for all concerned. Wiki anecdote: “For its world premiere, on January 10, 1955, Underwater was projected on a submerged movie screen at Silver Springs, Florida. Invited guests were encouraged to don aqualungs and bathing suits so that they could watch the picture while swimming.”

Thus morning I finally got around to dumping HE’s boilerplate Oscar Balloon movies-to-watch list for an Award Season, six-major-category assessment list with special parentheticals where appropriate — ABL = all but locked, EP = extra HE passion, RD = respectful disagreement/disapproval, AG = afterglow or makeup for previous loss, SD/MG = special dispensation/support of Movie Godz, NYS = not yet seen, GW = gold-watch award for septugenarians & octogenarians.

A few nominees are obviously ABL but the standing of many are subject to whimsy, peer pressure, mood pockets & the usual wind shifts.

Best Picture (in order of apparent likelihood): Joy (ABL, NYS); The Revenant (ABL, NYS); Spotlight (EP, SD/MG); The Big Short (NYS); The Martian (RD); Steve Jobs, Carol (fine) Room (RD); Bridge of Spies (RD), Love & Mercy EP, SD/MG) (10). In Need Of Heat: Brooklyn, Beasts of No Nation, Mad Max: Fury Road, Suffragette, Son of Saul (EP), The Hateful Eight (NYS), The Danish Girl. (7).

Best Director (in order of apparent likelihood): David O. Russell, Joy (ABL); Alejandro Inarritu, The Revenant; Tom McCarthy, Spotlight EP; Ridley Scott, The Martian (GW) (5). Heel-nippers: Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation (EP); Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs; Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies; George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (EP); Bill Pohlad, Love & Mercy (EP, SD/MG).

Best Actor (in order of apparent likelihood): Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (NYS, AG); Steve Carell, The Big Short (NYS); Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs; Matt Damon, The Martian; Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl. Heel-nippers: Michael Caine, Youth (GW), Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies, John Cusack, Love & Mercy (EP, SD/MG); Will Smith, Concussion (NYS).

Best Actress (in order of apparent likelihood): Jennifer Lawrence, Joy (NYS); Brie Larson, Room (ABL); Cate Blanchett, Carol/Truth (EP); Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn EP; Lily Tomlin, Grandma. Heel-nippers: Carey Mulligan, Suffragette (EP); Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road; Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years (GW).

Best Supporting Actor (in order of apparent likelihood): Robert DeNiro, Joy (NYS); Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies; Mark Ruffalo or Michael Keaton, Spotlight; Paul Dano, Love & Mercy (EP); Tom Hardy, The Revenant NYS. Heel-nippers: Michael Shannon, 99 Homes, Freeheld EP; Benicio Del Toro, Sicario; Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation, Jason Segel, End of the Tour; Sylvester Stallone, Creed (NYS); Ryan Gosling, The Big Short (NYS).

Best Supporting Actress (in order of apparent likelihood): Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl; Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs; Rooney Mara, Carol; Jane Fonda (EP, GW), Youth; Elizabeth Banks, Love & Mercy (EP). Heel-nippers: Diane Ladd, Joy; Joan Allen, Room; Rachel McAdams, Spotlight (EP).

I haven’t yet given myself over to studying Best Original & Best Adapted Screenplay likelies. I’ll add them as soon as I do.

The new Star Wars VII: The Force Awakens one-sheet seems to fortify what producer Kathy Kennedy was quoted as saying four days ago, which is that Daisy Ridley‘s Rey character will be “extremely significant.” This sounded to everyone like a hint that she has Skywalker blood in her veins — a child of either Luke Skywalker or Princess Leia. Director J.J. Abrams has, I believe, offered assurances that the film will make no mention whatsoever of midi-chlorians.

Taped six days ago (10.12) at Manhattan’s UCB Theatre, Donald Trump (Anthony Atamanuik) vs. Bernie Sanders (James Adomian).

You think last weekend’s Oscar Poker chat between myself, Sasha Stone and Boxoffice.com‘s Phil Contrino was fairly diverting? This morning’s chat, which featured AwardsWatch.com’s Erik Anderson, was even better. We got into the whole Joy research-screening thing, and just talking about it whetted my appetite all the more. We also discussed the most likely contenders in the major categories (Best Picture, Actor, Actress, Director, Supporting Actor & Actress). It’s a long chat (over 90 minutes) but I swear to God it’s very smooth and fast and entertaining. Again, the mp3.