With four days to go before the big night, we’re looking at exactly two Oscar quandaries — (1) will Denzel Washington steal the Best Actor Oscar from Casey Affleck? and (2) which awards won’t be won by Team La La? Excitement levels couldn’t be higher. On top of which Hollywood Elsewhere has been besieged by invites to hot Oscar-week parties. Well, five or six. I won’t be attending tonight’s La La Land dinner thrown by Vanity Fair and Barney’s New York; ditto the VF and Lancome party celebrating VF’s Hollywood Issue. But I’m good for JJ Abrams‘ annual Oscar Wilde bash at Bad Robot on Thursday evening and…uhhm, maybe Friday’s Hidden Figures soiree at Spago. Not to mention the big-tent Spirit Awards on Saturday, an Amazon/Manchester By The Sea viewing and after-party on Oscar night followed by a Lionsgate La La after-party at Soho House. That’s enough, I think.

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The performances we tend to remember and celebrate are always about recognizable feelings shaped by people who know from timing, emphasis, discipline…the art of emotional channeling. But different folks come at this in different ways. Among the current Best Supporting Actress nominees, four are similar and one is slightly different.

Fences‘ Viola Davis, Moonlight‘s Naomie Harris, Lion‘s Nicole Kidman and Manchester By The Sea‘s Michelle Williams are skilled actresses channelling the emotions of four exceptionally well-written characters. Hidden Figures Octavia Spencer, on the other hand, is a shrewd, spunky, spiritually attuned woman who knows how to shade or accentuate her natural manner and personality just so to bring out the contours of a fresh character.

In other words Davis, Harris, Kidman and Williams “act” to achieve a certain carefully refined end while Spencer is more of a natural presence who’s gifted and skillful enough to have made the right adjustments. The other four are like instruments — Spencer is more of a river or a force.

Octavia Spencer as NASA mathematician Dorothy Vaughan in Theodore Melfi’s Hidden Figures.

Popular actors and actresses are bringers of dependable vibes. The transition from popularity to stardom is basically about those vibes becoming well known, trusted and embraced en masse. I don’t know exactly when this started to happen with Octavia Spencer, but I know it’s happening right now. She’s become our best friend, our neighbor, a lady with heartstrings, someone you want along for the ride but at the same time a tough cookie. Plus she has the kindest eyes my own have ever beheld.

Just don’t forget the tough cookie part. Something about Spencer says “Sure, I’ll listen and probably hear what you’re saying ’cause I’m a generous empathy type plus you look like a nice fella, but don’t pull any fast ones when my head is turned or I’ll come down on your ass.”

Most of us decided we not only liked the water in Octavia’s well but wanted to keep a few bottles in the fridge after seeing her in Tate Taylor‘s The Help. Spencer won the Best Supporting Actress Oscar for her performance as Manny Jackson, the too-long-taken-for-granted maid. I’ve long presumed that Spencer won because of the shit-pie sequence, but more precisely because she allowed us to fully feel what Minny had gone through with her employer, played by Bryce Dallas Howard.

To any astute, fair-minded moviegoer Octavia Spencer‘s Best Supporting Actress nomination for her performance in Hidden Figures was a fitting tribute to a focused, lived-in thing. Spencer always hits that emotive sweet spot, never too showy or quiet, and her channeling of the late mathematician Dorothy Vaughn fit right into the humanistic scheme of Theodore Melfi‘s historical drama, which is now at $119 million since opening on 12.25.

Hidden Figures Oscar nominee Octavia Spencer.

I’ve been hey-hey friendly with Octavia for roughly five and a half years, or since I first met her during a press gathering for Tate Taylor‘s The Help in July of 2011. I got to know her a little better during some Fruitvale Station press events a couple of years later, and better still during the launch of Mike Binder‘s Black or White in the fall of 2015.

We did a phoner just before I drove up to the Santa Barbara Film Festival, and it’s taken me this long to post it — my bad. Every day I’m juggling six or seven bowling pins, and I always drop one or two. Here’s our chat.

Back in ’12 or ’13 Octavia and I were in Prague at the same time (I noticed she’d tweeted about being there) and so I tweeted back “Yo, Octavia….Jeffrey Wells in Prague also!…let’s meet for brewskis!” But she never replied.

Everyone knows that Fences‘ Viola Davis is going to win the Best Supporting Actress Oscar on Sunday, 2.26. I know it, Octavia knows it, every HE reader knows it and the 20th Century Fox publicity team knows it so why play games? But Octavia is one of the friendliest and gentlest souls I know in this racket, and seeing her is always an absolute pleasure so here I am, giving her the old “hey hey” again.

Octavia with Emma Stone, Matt Damon and Natalie Portman during Monday’s Oscar nominee luncheon.

Florence Foster Jenkins‘ costar Simon Helberg, whose highly amusing performance as a self-deluding pianist should have been nominated for a Best Supporting Actor Oscar, was the funniest and most engaging of the SBIFF Virtuosos who were honored last night. The Big Bang Theory star was in his element and smooth as silk. Helberg is more of a witty ensemble guy than a lead, but he really needs to keep appearing in quality features.

virtuosos ensemble

The warmest vibes came from Fences and Manchester by The Sea costar Stephen Henderson and Moonlight and Hidden Figures costar Mahershala Ali. The biggest applause machine was Lion‘s Dev Patel. Loving‘s Ruth Negga, Hidden Figures and Moonlight costar Janelle Monae and Moonlight costar Naomie Harris more than held their own.

I’m not a fan of Aaron Taylor-Johnson‘s absurdly demonic performance in Nocturnal Animals, and I was stunned when he recently won the Best Supporting Actor Golden Globe for this.  So I mostly just waited for his interview to be over. For what it’s worth I loved him in Anna Karenina.

The charming and smoothly disciplined Dave Karger (Today, TCM) handled his moderator task with the usual aplomb.

Me: Not to take anything away from the great Denzel Washington, but why didn’t Casey Affleck win the Best Actor SAG award last night? He’s been blitzkreiging that category for weeks, picking up 30something Best Actor trophies thus far. And all of a sudden Denzel surges ahead. Denzel was and is flat-out brilliant in Fences, but be honest — were you thinking the same thing I was thinking?

Friend: I don’t think that’s why. Denzel had never won a SAG award. That said, Manchester overall seems to have lost some steam.

Me: SAG stuck right to the predicted script with everything else, including the Hidden Figures surge, and yet they decide to ignore the longstanding Affleck inevitability and go for Denzel because they were exceptionally mindful about Denzel having been empty-handed and wanted to be…what, magnanimous?

Hooray for the Hidden Figures team! La La Land still wins the Best Picture Oscar, of course, but cheers to Taraji P. Henson, Octavia Spencer, Janelle Monae, Theodore P, Merlfi, Kevin Costner (who wasn’t there), etc.

Ryan Gosling‘s reactions as Emma Stone stumbled and stammered her way through her acceptance speech [after the jump] are priceless.

Gold Derby‘s Tom O’Neil to Hollywood Elsewhere‘s Jeffrey Wells: “CONGRATS to Kevin Polowy for reaping 100% perfect score predicting the PGA awards! CONGRATS also to Tariq Khan, Joyce Eng and Sasha Stone for Best Scores predicting ACE Eddies: 100%. SAG Awards are TONIGHT — Please make sure we’ve got YOUR predix! Competition is FIERCE!”

Wells to O’Neil: What about the Muslim immigration ban protest at LAX? I’m not trying to be an asshole — I really feel that the Muslim protest thing is the only thing that matters now.

Sidenote: On top of which the competition isn’t fierce. SAG’s ensemble award will go to either Moonlight or the surging Hidden Figures. Manchester‘s Casey Affleck will naturally land the Outstanding Male Performance award and La La‘s Emma Stone will take the Outstanding Female Performance honor, Moonlight‘s Mahershala Ali will take Best Supporting Male and Fences’ Viola Davis will win the Best Supporting Actress prize.

Maybe O’Neil was referring to “fierce” competition on the TV side.

With 14 nominations collected, La La Land obviously has the Best Picture Oscar in the bag. Damien Chazelle is all but locked for Best Director, and Emma Stone is all but assured for Best Actress…right?

HE faves: Elle‘s Isabelle Huppert for Best Actress…yes! Nocturnal Animals‘ Michael Shannon among the nominees for Supporting Actor. Asghar Farhadi‘s The Salesman among Best Foreign Language Feature nominees. Hidden Figures‘ Octavia Spencer among Best Supporting Actress nominees!

Slight but Approved Surprise: Captain Fantastic‘s Viggo Mortensen among Best Actor nominees. Loving‘s Ruth Negga among Best Actress nominees — deserved but not entirely expected as her campaign seemed to be on a low flame throughout Phase One.

Curious Omissions: Arrival‘s Amy Adams blown off for Best Actress nomination. Florence Foster Jenkins‘ Hugh Grant shafted regarding expected Best Supporting Actor nomination; ditto Sully‘s Tom Hanks for Best Actor. What happened to 20th Century Women‘s Annette Bening?

HE Complaint: Hidden Figures‘ Kevin Costner should have been nominated for Best Supporting Actor instead of (no offense, due respect) Lion‘s Dev Patel, whose performance struck me as somewhat cloying and dewy-eyed.

Best Picture: Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Lion, Moonlight.

Best Actor: Manchester‘s Casey Affleck (locked), Hacksaw Ridge‘s Andrew Garfield, La La Land‘s Ryan Gosling, Captain Fantastic‘s Viggo Mortensen, Fences‘ Denzel Washington.

Best Actress: Elle‘s Isabelle Huppert, Loving‘s Ruth Negga, Jackie‘s Natalie Portman, La La Land‘s Emma Stone (most likely winner), Florence Foster Jenkins‘ Meryl Streep.

Best Supporting Actor: Moonlight‘s Mahershala Ali, Hell or High Water‘s Jeff Bridges, Manchester By The Sea‘s Lucas Hedges, Lion‘s Dev Patel, Nocturnal Animals‘ Michael Shannon.

Best Supporting Actress: Fences‘ Viola Davis, Moonlight‘s Naomie Harris, Lion‘s Nicole Kidman, Hidden Figures‘ Octavia Spencer, Manchester‘s Michelle Williams.

Best Director: Arrival‘s Denis Villeneuve, Hacksaw Ridge‘s Mel Gibson (officially off the pariah list), La La Land‘s Damien Chazelle, Manchester‘s Kenneth Lonergan, Moonlight‘s Barry Jenkins.

Not much has changed since late November/early December, but a couple of things have. The Hidden Figures surge, for one. La La Land rules, of course, and the big four runners-up are Manchester By The Sea, Moonlight (I am unable to accept that a majority of Academy members believe that the entirely admirable but modestly scaled Moonlight is a more formidable achievement than Manchester…no!), Hell or High Water and Hidden Figures. In what ways am I deluding myself, if at all? What needs to go up or down?

It’s not a rumor nor subject to debate — Peter Berg‘s Patriots Day (which opened on over 3000 screens this weekend) is a fleet, punchy docudrama that totally kills in the second act and is generally an A-level thing. (The only problem is that “Boston, fuck yeah!” tribute section at the very end.) So why isn’t it playing as well as expected?

Deadline‘s Anthony D’Allesandro says that a projected three-day tally of only $14.2 million is “an upset, [especially] considering that many box office analysts thought this movie had a shot at No. 1 with a $20 million-plus four-day” — the Martin Luther King holiday falls on Monday — “juiced by some of the flyover state American Sniper crowd.”

To some extent the $14.2 million argues with Patriots Day‘s A+ CinemaScore, which suggests that good word of mouth is out there and should gradually kick in. D’Allesandro reminds that an A+ grade (which is relatively rare) usually results “in a 4.8 multiple off 3-day openings which means Patriots Day could get close to $60 million.”

I figured that Patriots Day would sell itself. I thought it was better than just a magnet for the hinterland crowd (i.e., beefy, beer-chugging, flannel-shirt-wearing Trump voters) — I thought it would play all over, for everyone — but that $14.2 million suggests that even the primitives weren’t as enthused as they might have been. Why, I wonder?

Svetlana Cvetko, DanceCameraWest exec director Tonia Barber and I attended a UTA screening of Hidden Figures last night. Ted Melfi‘s film was introduced by Melissa McCarthy. After it ended costars Kevin Costner and Octavia Spencer did a q & a with director-writer Melfi, and then everyone chit-chatted at a nearby reception. The big news was that last weekend Figures not only had a bountiful reception ($25 million and change) and managed to beat Rogue One for the #1 slot by $750K.

Sidenote #1: Besides being excellent as the big NASA honcho in Hidden Figures, Costner is tall. He was wearing cowboy boots but he has me by a good inch, and I’m just under 6′ 1″. Sidenote #2: Before driving back to his Carpinteria home, Costner mentioned his band, Modern West, and their 2012 album, “Famous For Killing Each Other: Music From and Inspired by Hatfields & McCoys.”

Hidden Figures costars Octavia Spencer, Kevin Costner following last night’s UTA screening.

When I read this morning that the Producers Guild of America voters had nominated Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures, La La Land, Lion, Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight for their Daryl F. Zanuck award (i.e., the equivalent of a Best Picture prize)…well, I nearly fell over in my chair. It’s a good thing I have a few percocets left because I needed something to calm myself down. I was literally vibrating.

Seriously, no one is very interested. You have to report on the various guild noms because you have to, but that doesn’t mean they’re of any special interest.

The only PGA-nominated film worth mentioning is a film not worth mentioning — i.e, the reprehensible Deadpool, which I called “a glib, porno-violent Daffy Duck cartoon” while I reviewed it a little more than eleven months ago. I don’t want to think about why this thing was nominated, not just by the PGA but also the WGA guys.

If the ghost of Daryl F. Zanuck was capable of processing the PGA’s bizarre admiration for this wretched joke of a film, his shrieks would be heard among the clouds. He would curse and punch a refrigerator door and then return to earth in order to confront the membership at the next meeting. “You’re nominating a piece of shit like Deadpool? I know it can’t win but this award has my name on it, dammit!”

Hidden Figures‘ Kevin Costner speaking with Variety‘s Kris Tapley about Dances With Wolves:

“There was an undertone out there that was ugly. It was ‘Kevin’s Gate,’ like, ‘What’s he doing out there? This movie is a disaster.’ I didn’t know where that had come from. I know this: I had to turn down The Hunt for Red October because I had promised I would do Dances, and some people thought me saying no to Hunt for Red October was [because] I needed more money.

“It wasn’t more money. I had already postponed Dances for a year and I wasn’t going to do it now. I had all my things in place. In fact, if anything, it caused me a lot of pain because there was more money offered on Hunt for Red October than I had ever seen in my life. So I was doing the dumb thing. I was putting up my money and leaving behind the biggest check I had ever seen.”

When Dances won Best Picture along with six other Oscars, “It was like ‘I got my money back!,” Costner recalls. “I got my house back!’”