An 85 year-old official announcing a resignation due to declining health is hardly a shocker. Pope Benedict XVI has been on the job for eight years, but some are going “whoa!” because the usual way for the head of the Catholic church to leave office is to keel over. Outside of Italians and ardent Catholics, who really cares? Another old guy will be selected to fill Benedict’s shoes, and the church will continue to deny or deflect allegations of sexual abuse by this or that priest.

MSN critic and Some Came Running jazzman Glenn Kenny graciously agreed to an Oscar Poker chat earlier today. We got into Identity Thief and obesity issues, but I wanted to keep the mp3 shortish so I cut that stuff out. The talk runs about 45 minutes. It starts with me lamenting how the best films are always crammed into the last four months of the year. It ends with a discussion of the On The Waterfront Bluray and the very fine cinematography of Boris Kaufman.

Oscar Poker chat

Hollywood Elsewhere to Academy’s Lincoln and Life of Pi supporters:

It’s getting really repetitious but what can you do? Argo won at the BAFTA awards today/tonight. Best Picture plus Best Director for Ben Affleck. Last night Chris Terrio‘s Argo screenplay won the Scripter Award. Affleck has also won the DGA award, of course, and Argo has also won the Producer’s Guild Award, the SAG Ensemble award, the Golden Globe award for Best Drama and the Critics Choice award for Best Picture.

With all due respect and compassion, Lincoln and Life of Pi can’t possibly win the Best Picture Oscar. You strongly suspected this before; now you know it for sure. It’s not that they aren’t fine, admirable, well-made films. Clearly they are. But at this stage of the game a vote for Lincoln or Pi is effing wasted. I’m sorry to say this but that’s how it is right now. Voting for Lincoln for Best Picture is like voting for Gus Hall for president back in the ’70s and ’80s. Voting for Life of Pi is like throwing a rock into a mine shaft.

The only question now is “are Academy members content to just drift along and nod out and let Argo take the Best Picture Oscar as everyone expects, or do you have it in you to man up, seize the moment and give it to a film that really (or at least arguably) deserves to be called the very Best Picture of 2012 as opposed to giving it to the most likable or mildly pleasing?”

Yesterday Awards Daily‘s Sasha Stone wrote that “the biggest group [within the Academy] has gathered around Argo and there isn’t a whole lot anyone can do about it. The Silver Linings voters won’t switch to Lincoln. The Lincoln voters won’t switch to Silver Linings. The Life of Pi voters won’t switch to Lincoln or Silver Linings.”

But why stick to your Lincoln or Pi guns at this stage? To what end? So you can say to yourself “I refused to budge!…I stuck by my principles!”? That and $1.75 will get you a bus ticket. If you want to make a difference you need to stand up, man up, give it up and cast your vote for the one movie that has a real chance of stealing the Best Picture Oscar away from Argo.

I wish I could say that film is Zero Dark Thirty. It ought to be as it happens to be the toughest, ballsiest, smartest, coolest, bravest and most intriguingly adult film of the year. Which in my book makes it the best. But it’s in the same can’t-possibly-win boat as Lincoln and Life of Pi, sorry to say. I wish it were otherwise.

If you don’t want 2012 to go down as the year of the nicely sculpted but likably congenial Argo, you have to grim up, suck it in and give your vote to Silver Linings Playbook.

Which is a beautifully made, superbly written, perfectly acted film that works on its own terms and delivers an unmistakable emotional current that really stands alone among all the Best Picture contenders. It may not be your absolute favorite, but you know it’s an ace-level touchdown, and you know that the David O. Russell metaphor — a man who has grown up and opened his heart and put his demons behind him and found a way to work lovingly and Zen-style with the very best people in the business — is one that we all know about and should applaud.

So that’s it. Give up your darlings and vote for Silver Linings Playbook or Argo will take the Big Prize. Do you want that? Do you really want that? If you don’t, you know what to do. It’s easy. Just do it, and everyone’s mind will be blown. Including, perhaps, your own.

From a 9.14.12 HE piece: “Argo is basically a movie designed to enthrall, charm, amuse, thrill, move and excite. It’s a comfort-blanket movie that basically says ‘this was the problem, and this is how it was solved…and the guys who made it happen deserve our applause and respect…no?’ Yes, they do. But above all Argo aims to please. It skillfully creates suspense elements that probably weren’t that evident when the story actually went down. And it throws in two or three divorced-father-hangs-with-young-son scenes, and some CIA razmatazz and a few ’80s Hollywood cheeseball jokes and basically lathers it all on.

“If I was a high-school teacher and Argo was a term paper, I would give it an 87 or 88. Okay, an 89. It’s obviously good, but it’s not constructed of the kind of material that ages well. It is not a film that exudes paralyzing bravery or greatness. Like many highly regarded Hollywood films, it adheres to familiar classic centrist entertainment values…and there’s nothing wrong with that. It’s very pleasing thing, but it’s a fucking caper film. Boil it down and it’s Ocean’s 11 set in Washington, D.C., L.A. and Tehran of 1978 and ’89 without the money or the flip glamorous vibe or the Clooney-Pitt-Damon-Cheadle combustion.”

The BAFTA Awards are over and — are you sitting down? — Argo won Best Picture and Ben Affleck won Best Director. Another shocker came when Lincoln‘s Daniel Day-Lewis won Best Actor. The one actual surprise (and a very agreeable one) came when Amour‘s Emmanuelle Riva won Best Actress. Amour also won the Best Film Not In The English Language award.

Les Miserables‘ Anne Hathaway won for Best Supporting Actress…again. David O. Russell won for Best Adapted Screenplay…yes! And…whoa, wait…what? Django‘s Quentin Tarantino won for Best Original Screenplay? And Django‘s Christoph Waltz won for Best Supporting Actor? That’s kind of ahead-scratcher given the competish from SLP‘s Robert De Niro and Lincoln‘s Tommy Lee Jones, but whatever.

The next one will really knock you down: Searching For Sugar Man won Best Documentary. Seriously — when hasn’t this won in the Best Doc category so far?

The Best Original Film Score prize went to Skyfall and Thomas Newman…fine. Life of Pi‘s Claudio Mirando won for Best Cinematography. Les Miserables‘ Eve Stewart and Anna Lynch-Robinson won for Best Production Design. Argo‘s William Goldenberg (who also cut Zero Dark Thirty) won for Best Editing.

Nobody cares about the rest of the BAFTA awards. Okay, yes, some probably care but I don’t. Well, I kind of do as I geninely respect all high-end achievements in motion pictures. But I don’t care enough to paste and re-format them down. Sorry.

As a freelance reporter in the early ’90s I was obliged to deliver the tart, punchy, sometimes adversarial attitude that my Entertainment Weekly, N.Y Daily News and L.A. Times employers wanted in their Hollywood news and trend stories. Everything that I felt and knew about the film industry deep down — all the personal quirky passion stuff that I try to put into Hollywood Elsewhere — was not what sold, and so out of necessity I had to occasionally deliver hardcore “gotcha” stories.

This made me less than radiantly popular with some of the publicists at the time, and one result was that I occasionally had problems in getting one-on-one interviews with movie stars. This became a major problem in late 1993 when, as a weekly Sunday columnist for the N.Y. Daily News, I tried to arrange a Tom Hanks interview during the Philadelphia junket. The always-friendly Tristar publicists said they couldn’t fit me in — nothing personal, strictly a scheduling issue — but I knew I’d been zotzed, probably by the publicist who represented Hanks directly.

I tried again with the publicists, assuring them that my piece would be fair and respectful and non-gotcha and that I just wanted to deliver a nice Hanks piece for my Daily News bosses. “Jeffrey, it’s not you,” they repeated. “It’s Tom’s crazy schedule. We’ve had to tell a lot of people no. Please don’t take it personally.”

So I went to Tristar chairman Mike Medavoy, whom I’d spoken to on background for two or three stories and whom I knew slightly in a social context. I told him my situation and asked if he could help. “I’ll get back to you,” he said. A day or two later he called and said, “You’re off the shit list.” I thanked him profusely. “But do the right thing,” he added. I never intended to do the “wrong” thing but I said “yeah, of course, I get it….and thanks very much, Mike.” And so I was allowed to speak to Hanks at the junket and the piece I ran was fine. No big deal.

All to say that knowing and liking the big guys and being liked or at least respected by them helps enormously in this town. I’ve never published this story before, but I’m figuring it’s okay to tell tales after 19 years. And thank you again, Mr. Medavoy. It meant a lot.

During last night’s USC Scripter Awards Hollywood Reporter award-season columnist Scott Feinberg spoke with former U.S. Rep. Jane Harman about Zero Dark Thirty, and she gave it a ringing endorsement, calling it “magnificent” and saying she’s seen it four times.

This sorta kinda means something with Harman having served on three House committees linked to national security — six years on Armed Services, eight years on Intelligence, four years on Homeland Security. “I know a ton about the material in the movie,” she said. “There are some things [in the film] that are not accurate, but it’s a movie! And, as a movie — at least from this unscientific vantage point — it’s fabulous.”

Feinberg asked if Harman feels ZD30 endorses torture, as the Stalinists have claimed. “I wouldn’t say so,” Harman replied. “I don’t endorse torture, and I was outspoken when I was in Congress about that. I think depicting some things that happened is not unfair.” Did torture produce the information that led the U.S. to the courier who led them to Osama bin Laden? “I think some people think that,” Harman said, “But that is not accurate.”

This last claim of Harman’s differs from what former CIA director Leon Panetta has recently said. On Sunday, 2.3, he told Chuck Todd on Meet The Press that “some of [the information” that led to Osama bin Laden] “came from some of the tactics that were used at that time, interrogation tactics that were used” — alluding to torture. “But the fact is, we…we put together most of that intelligence without having to resort to that.”

But you know what? ZD30 is still too chilly and real-world and ambiguous and there’s no humor to speak of (and certainly no inside-Hollywood humor, which we love) so let’s give the Best Picture award to Argo.

I’ve run variations of this most eagerly waited films of 2013 list a couple of times since December. The count is now at 58, although I’ve deleted some titles and added four or five. But things evolve and clarify as time moves along so it can’t hurt to go over it once more. As usual, please point out any mistakes or anything I’ve missed.

(l. to r.) Bruce Dern, Will Forte, Alexander Payne during filming of Nebraska.

I understand that it’s my lot in life to mostly suffer through the winter and spring, nibbing whatever morsels I can find, and then succumb to numbing fatigue and occasional nausea during the May-July blockbuster season and then, finally — finally! — get a little satisfaction come early September and some serious nutritional soul food in late October, November and December.

It’ll never happen, but I wish the quality stuff could be spread out a bit more. A very small portion of these films will open in the spring and summer and two or three might not come out until 2014 (especially those directed by Terrence Wackadoodle), but if the vast majority are in fact going to open in 2013, the accepted industry practice of only releasing the goodies only between Labor Day and Christmas means that something close to 45 or 50 will have to open within a four-month window, or roughly 12 per month or three per week.

That’s a lot to absorb and process, and that’s not even counting the crap popcorn stuff. So we’ll all be looking at a very full fall-holiday season, and the game will begin six and half months from now. Get some rest.

(1) John Wells‘ August: Osage County.

(2) Alexander Payne‘s Nebraska.

(3) Alfonso Cuaron‘s Gravity;

(4) George Clooney‘s Monuments Men (a.k.a., cousin of The Train).

(5) Paul Greengrass‘s Captain Phillips.

(6) Martin Scorsese‘s Wolf of Wall Street.

(7) Jason Reitman‘s Labor Day.

(8) Joel and Ethan Coen‘s Inside Llewyn Davis.

(9) Bennett Miller‘s Foxcatcher.

(10) John Lee Hancock‘s Saving Mr. Banks.

(11) Ridley Scott‘s The Counselor.

(12) Spike Lee‘s Oldboy.

(13) Luc Besson‘sMalavita.

(14) Steve McQueen‘s 12 Years A Slave.

(15) Baz Luhrman‘s The Great Gatsby (which might have issues).

(16) Spike Jonze‘s Her.

(17) Anton Corbijn‘s A Most Wanted Man, based on a John le Carre novel and costarring Willem Dafoe, Rachel McAdams, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Robin Wright.

(18 & 19): Terrence Malick‘s two ventures — the Austin-based film formerly known as Lawless (who knows what it’s called now?) plus the relationship vehicle Knight of Cups with Christian Bale and Natalie Portman. It could be that neither will be released until 2014 or 2015. You know Malick. (2)

(20) Wes Anderson‘s The Grand Budapest Hotel. Cast: Ralph Fiennes, Tilda Swinton and Jeff Goldblum, Willem Dafoe, F. Murray Abraham, Jude Law, Adrien Brody, Edward Norton, Harvey Keitel, Jason Schwartzman, Bill Murray, Mathieu Amalric, Owen Wilson.

(l. to r.) Meryl Streep, Ewan McGregor, Julia Roberts during filming of August: Osage County.

(21) James Gray‘s Nightingale, a New York-based period drama w/ Jeremy Renner, Marion Cotillard and Joaquin Phoenix.

(22) Guillame Canet‘s Blood Ties, a 1970s cops-and-criminals drama w/ Marion Cotillard, Clive Owen, Billy Crudup, Mila Kunis, Zoe Saldana, James Caan, Noah Emmerich.

(23) David O. Russell‘s Abscam movie (once known as American Bullshit — starts shooting in March so might not be ready this year…who knows?

(24) Noah Baumbach‘s Frances Ha (seen & praised at Telluride 2012 — definitely worth its weight).

(25) Richard Linklater‘s Before Midnight (a major Sundance 2013 highlight and an all-but-guaranteed Oscar contender for Best Original Screenplay).

(26) Stephen Frears‘ Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight.

(27) Sofia Coppola‘s The Bling Ring.

(28) Lars von Trier‘s Nymphomaniac.

(29) Wong Kar Wai‘s The Grandmaster — I don’t want to know from this film as all Asian combat/martial-arts films will be instantly ignored in this corner from now until the day I die. I will not go there under penalty of death, fines and imprisonment.

(30) Pedro Almodovar‘s I’m So Excited (all things Pedro!),

(31) Joe Swanberg‘s Drinking Buddies (Anna Kendrick, Olivia Wilde, Jake Johnson).

(32) Jean-Pierre Jeunet‘s The Young and Prodigious Spivet (Judy Davis, Helena Bonham Carter, etc.).

(33) Peter Landesman‘s Parkland.

(34) Diablo Cody‘s untitled film (which was called Lamb of God when I read the script last year).

(35) Brian Helgeland‘s 42 (Jackie Robinson biopic w/ Chadwick Boseman and Harrison Ford).

(36) Oliver Hirschbiegel‘s Diana (Princess of Wales biopic/love affair with Naomi Watts).

(37) Asghar Farhadi‘s The Past.

(38) John Michael McDonagh‘s Calvary.

(39) Paolo Sorrentino‘s La Grande Bellezza.

(40) Hossein Amini‘s The Two Faces of January.

(41) Francois Ozon‘s Jeune at Jolie (an apparent riff on Luis Bunuel‘s Belle du Jour).

(42) Terry Gilliam‘s The Zero Theorem.

(43) Woody Allen‘s Blue Jasmine.

(44) Roman Polanski‘s Venus in Fur.

(45) Danny Boyle’s‘s Trance, a crime thriller w/ James McAvoy, Vincent Cassel, Rosario Dawson. (Fox Searchlight, April).

(46) John Crowley‘s Closed Circuit.

(47) Susanne Bier‘s Serena — a period reteaming of Jennifer Lawrence and Bradley Cooper.

(48) Errol Morris‘s The Unknown Known: The Life and Times of Donald Rumsfeld.

(49) Ryan Coogler‘s Fruitvale — the big hit of Sundance 2013, acquired by the Weinstein Co.

One could also include Ben Stiller‘s The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, Nicholas Winding Refn‘s Only God Forgives, Ron Howard‘s Rush, David Cronenberg‘s Maps to the Stars. Neill Blomkamp‘s Elysium, Joseph Kosinski‘s Oblivion, Robert Schwentke‘s R.I.P.D., Sam Raimi‘s Oz: The Great and Powerful and Guillermo del Toro‘s Pacific Rim (9).

I don’t know why I’ve had so much trouble posting a review of Steven Soderbergh‘s Side Effects except to say that while I knew I was watching an efficient thriller with unexpected twists and turns, it didn’t get me in the gut. It didn’t turn me on as much as placate me in the way that all Soderbergh films do because they’re always so smart and disciplined and well crafted. But the whole time I was going “hmm, interesting” or “yeah, nicely done” more than “oh, super-cool…I really love this.”

My second problem with reviewing Side Effects in a timely way is that I saw it before Sundance/Santa Barbara, and by the time the embargo was up I had moved on to other places and currents and I had trouble restarting. The initial mojo had left the room. I need to review films fairly quickly…tap, tap, tap…throw it out there. I tried to get it up two or three times and it wouldn’t happen.

The third problem is that it’s hard to review Side Effects without spoiling the plot turns. It’s a bit like Psycho in that you start out with a Janet Leigh-like character (i.e., Rooney Mara‘s)…an attractive woman who’s flawed but basically sort-of sympathetic. And then things turn suddenly and then your allegiances shift over to…well, not a Tony Perkins-like character but a basically good guy (i.e., Jude Law‘s) who’s either made a serious mistake or has been played…and then some more twists occur. I really can’t figure how to dive into this without saying anything.

Mara’s Emily Taylor has a mild-mannered husband (Channing Tatum) just getting out of prison term for insider trading and is therefore a woman with reason to feel at least semi-hopeful about things, but she’s also a little glum and disconnected and not into sex. So she goes to see Law’s Dr. Jonathan Banks, a psychiatrist who prescribes a new medication that he’s getting paid to dispense. This brings Emily back sexually but makes her act…well, oddly in other ways. Or maybe she was always odd. That’s as far as a I can go with this, I think. Things take a sudden turn and before you know it Law is in serious trouble, and then…

I don’t what else to say except there’s some nice lesbo action in the third act. Jesus, I’m dropping the ball here. I have to stop.

Side Effects is a very good film (I actually wouldn’t mind seeing it again) but it’s more of a head-trip thriller than anything else. It has a post-2008 recession vibe, or…maybe I really mean an ’09 or ’10 vibe. It has the same general attitude as The Girlfriend Experience, in a sense, and the last few Sodies for that matter — Magic Mike, Contagion, even Haywire. Quiet ruthlessness, rhymes and reasons on hold, walls closing in, people finagling each other, sidestepping rules or making up their own. A very chilly realm.

On 2.6 I expressed disappointment that Peter Landesman‘s Parkland, a currently-shooting drama about the killing of President John F. Kennedy on 11.22.63, will not strictly focus on the activities at Dallas’s Parkland hospital (which the title obviousiy implies) but will involve various locales and perspectives. But then I was sent a draft of Landesman’s script. I finished it last night, and I have to say it’s a sturdy, convincing, well-structured effort.

There’s no telling how the film itself will turn out. There are probably 50 ways Landesman can screw things up and he’s a genius if he can think of 35 of them, but I know authentic-sounding dialogue and good screenwriting architecture and when scenes run just the right length, and there’s no question that on paper at least Parkland is a taut, gripping recreation of a dark and horrific day. It smells like reality.

Dark and Horrific Day is a more truthful title than Parkland as Landesman’s script follows four story lines with four separate clusters of characters in a host of Dallas locations. (The film has been lensing in Austin but will go to Dallas for some pickups, or so I’ve read.)

Roughly half of the script deals with the Parkland gang including Dr. Jim Carrico (Zac Efron), Dr. Malcolm Perry (Colin Hanks), Dr. Jerry Gustaffson and Nurse Doris Mae Nelson (Marcia Gay Harden), who attended to the mortally wounded JFK as well as his assassin, Lee Harvey Oswald, on 11.24. Another Parkland character is Father Huber (Jackie Earl Haley), who administered last rights to the President.

The other half is split between three groups. About 25% or 30% focuses on Abraham Zapruder (Paul Giamatti), the guy who took the famous 8mm color footage of JFK’s murder, and all the people who dealt with him that day — a couple of film processing guys, Dallas Morning News editor Harry McCormick, FBI agent Forrest Sorrels (Billy Bob Thornton), Life editor Richard Stolley. Maybe 15% deals with Lee Oswald (Jeremy Strong), his older brother Robert (James Badge Dale) and their loony-tune mother, Marguerite Oswald (Jacki Weaver). And 5% or 10% focuses on two FBI agents — Gordon Shanklin and James Hosty (Ron Livingston) — who destroyed letters and other paper documents concerning Oswald and his wife Marina.

Largely based on Vincent Bugliosi‘s “Reclaiming History,” Parkland is definitely an “Oswald acted alone” movie.

If you agree with Howard Hawks‘ definition of a good film containing “three great scenes and no bad ones,” then Parkland will be a good film because it has several very…well, perhaps not necessarily “great” but very strong scenes.

A strong scene is a back-and-forth that makes you sit up in your seat and go “wow, that was something” or “whoa, intense stuff.” It’s a moment that you know you’ll remember. There are at least three such scenes at Parkland hospital (Carrico and Perry’s attempts to save Kennedy’s life inside trauma room #1, angry FBI and Secret Service guys removing JFK’s casket in defiance of Dallas police officials wanting to perform an autopsy, Oswald being wheeled into Parkland and reactions of staffers), at least two or three scenes with Zapruder, two exchanges at Dallas police headquarters involving Robert Oswald (one with Lee, another with a police officer), a scene acquainting us with Marguerite Oswald’s dementia, a making-room-for-the-casket scene on Air Force One, and a burial-of-Oswald scene at the very end. What is that, ten?

Some of the descriptions of JFK’s wounds and certain procedures followed in the trauma room indicate that Parkland will be fairly bloody and graphic here and there. Not for the squeamish unless, of course, editing intercedes.

Parkland will come out sometime around the 50th anniversary of JFK’s murder.

In a rant about Rex Reed‘s mean-spirited remarks about Melissa McCarthy‘s weight in his review of Identity Thief, Deadline‘s Michael Fleming sounds wise and perceptive for the most part, but also in basic denial by failing to acknowledge a difference between garden-variety corpulence and morbid, health-threatening obesity, which is a national pestilence as well as a dark metaphor.

Wise and perceptive: “I don’t care who the girl is, it hurts to be insulted about your weight, or to be defined by it. If I was McCarthy’s husband, brother, father or even her agent and I saw Reed, I’d have to fight off the temptation to open a can of whup-ass on him. I’d hope that I would be smart enough to swallow that urge and instead see Reed for what he is: a tired, cranky old critic who in this case lost his basic sense of compassion. He really ought to try rising above superficial cruelty and recognize what it takes for a woman like Melissa McCarthy to overcome to become a singular talent. If the movie sucks, fine, go to town, but c’mon Rex.”

Basic denial: “I don’t know if [Reed] has kids, but I have two daughters. It sensitizes you to many things, including the temptation to obsess about being rail thin. All you want for your girls is that they feel comfortable in their own skin, and McCarthy is a shining example of that. Reed obviously doesn’t even consider that McCarthy is breaking boundaries and making it okay for girls all over to feel good about themselves even if, when they look in the mirror, they don’t see a waif-like Victoria’s Secret model staring back.”

Fleming presumably understands that no fair-minded person would ever slam McCarthy for being simply overweight or corpulent or rotund or whatever term you want to use for someone who has girth. I know I have a reputation for being a fat-person antagonist but I’ve never had the slightest issue with acceptable, no-big-deal fat in the vein of Charles Laughton or Peter Ustinov or John Candy in Only The Lonely or Lou Costello or Oliver Hardy in the 1920s and ’30s. I agree that the mindset among God knows how many tens of millions of women that you have to be skinny thin is neurotic and oppressive, but Fleming knows perfectly well that, Reed’s cruelty aside, McCarthy’s issue is not her failure to be thin as a reed but her being much more than just fat. Some people are simply bulky — it’s just the way they’re built — but McCarthy’s size is way over the top. She’s clearly indulging in a way that’s not going to be good for her in the long run.

Is Fleming saying that all the people who have voiced fears or suspicions that Gov. Chris Christie will probably face serious health issues down the road unless he loses some weight…is he saying such talk is cruel and heartless and without merit? I doubt that. It’s obvious that McCarthy is in the same boat as Christie, and her proclaiming that she’s comfortable with being dangerously overweight is nothing to applaud or be proud of. On one level she’s saying that she accepts herself and that, I suppose, is temporarily fine as far as her present-tense attitude is concerned, but on another level she’s saying to millions of morbidly obese women out there that everything’s fine, that they should embrace their neuroses and keep eating crap and make themselves as super-sized as they want because they’re beautiful people inside and that’s what matters. Which is true on one level — who a person is spiritually and emotionally and creatively is the key thing. In this sense I worship Guillermo del Toro. And I’ve always admired Orson Welles.

But obesity is a national disease that has gotten worse and worse over the last two or three decades. Corporate crap food + kids spending all their time online and playing video games and watching the tube and not exercising + the situation as conveyed in Food, Inc is not a rumor. These are facts. Except for upscale urban healthies (i.e., people with a semblance of discipline who care about their bodies and exercise now and then) we’ve become a nation of sea lions. And Fleming knows this. And he should know that applauding McCarthy as a “shining example” of positive self-acceptance is not the right way to put it.

Yes, it makes perfect sense that Identity Thief, by most accounts a landmark stinker (25% Rotten Tomatoes, 37% Metacritic), is expected to earn $35 million (or $10 million more than projected) by Sunday night, even with Nemo putting a significant dent in attendance in Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut and (to a lesser extent) New York City

If people want to see something, you can’t stop ’em. They don’t give a shit about anything. They just want to see it.

And the people who wanted to see this reportedly agonizing comedy (which I might see today or tomorrow if Jason Bateman or one of his pallies slips me a pass…sorry) are Bridesmaids fans (particularly Melissa McCarthy fans) who don’t read or care about reviews. Which accounts for…what, 90% of the moviegoing public? And no, there wasn’t any kind of rally-round-McCarthy sympathy factor over the Rex Reed hippo review because, as I just said, 90% of the public doesn’t read reviews or the review-aggregate sites. They’re in their own realm and off the grid.

Same principle apples in the case of a really well-reviewed movie that doesn’t look right for whatever reason. They look at the ads and decide if it has what they want and if they sense that it doesn’t, game over. They won’t go with a gun pointed at their heads. They’re incredibly thick and stubborn. The girly-girls refused to see Silver Linings Playbook (which is now at $84 milllon) for weeks and weeks until finally award-season hoopla turned them around, but before that happened they were adamant. Not for us!

I realize, yes, that millions wanted something to go to last night, and Identity Thief was the only new wide-release comedy out there, and most people want to kick back and enjoy themselves on a Friday night. I get it. I get it. But they’re still slow and thick and obstinate.

Steven Soderbergh‘s Side Effects — a much, much better film than Identity Thief — pretty much tanked. Yesterday it made $2,800,000 on 2600 screens, or about $1075 per screen. Maybe $8.5 or $9 million by Sunday night. Over and out and on to Netflix.

Earlier today Awards Daily‘s Ryan Adams posted several one-sheets inspired by the 2012 Best Picture nominees. The show, co-sponsored by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences and Gallery1988 (7021 Melrose Ave. just east of La Brea), is called “For Your Consideration.” My favorite by far is Matt Owen‘s Amour poster.