Jacob Aron Estes‘ The Details, which I saw this morning, is about things going badly for a Seattle-residing doctor and family man (Tobey Maguire), in part due to his own poor decisions but also because of horrible pre-ordained luck — fate or God or some overpowering force simply being against him. A similar theme drove the Coen brothers’ A Serious Man — God doesn’t care, and He might even be messing with you because He’s a perverse mofo possessed of a sick sense of humor.

Cosmic disfavor is clearly indicated in The Details in the very first scene. Maguire is shown sitting alone in front of an office building during the day when all of a sudden a large piano falls from above, flattening him. We all know what it means when anything falls from the sky in a movie (like the frogs in Paul Thomas Anderson‘s Magnolia) — i.e., someone up there is displeased. So this morning I asked Estes if he could express what his film is saying theologically, in 25 words or less. He said that God isn’t really in his film and that we all create our fate or destiny with our choices and our character. That struck me as blatantly dishonest given his use of the falling piano, but maybe I’m being too strict about this.

A Fandango poll is reporting that the biggest surprise, according to the majority (34%) of respondents, was the nomination of John Hawkes for Best Supporting Actor in Winter’s Bone. There was also a “Top 10 Oscar Nomination Snubs of 2011” poll, and the results are as follows: (1) Christopher Nolan, Best Director, Inception (48%); (2) Tangled – Best Animated Feature (9%); (3) Mila Kunis — Best Supporting Actress, Black Swan (8%); (4) Despicable Me – Best Animated Feature (6%); (5) Ryan Gosling — Best Actor, Blue Valentine (6%); (6) Waiting for Superman – Best Documentary (5%); (7) Black Swan – Best Original Screenplay (5%); (8) Andrew Garfield – Best Supporting Actor, The Social Network (5%); Julianne Moore – Best Actress, The Kids are All Right (4%), and (10) Inception — Best Editing (3%).

“There are two interesting stats to keep in mind when considering the Best Picture race between The King’s Speech with its 12 nominations, and The Social Network with its 8 nominations,” writes columnist Scott Feinberg. “The last time that the Academy had 10 nominees prior to last year’s awards was 1943. That year The Song of Bernadette, which had 12 nods, lost Best Picture to Casablanca, which had 8 nods. (Casablanca‘s ultimately won 3 Oscars compared to The Song of Bernadette‘s 4 Oscars.)

“Conversely, in 1942, Mrs. Miniver, which had 12 nods and is a film in which “everyone displays strength of character in the face of tragedy and destruction,” won best picture over The Magnificent Ambersons, which had fewer nods and is a film about the impact of a major technological advance on American society.”

In an interview with Moveline‘s Elvis Mitchell, 127 Hours star and Oscar telecast co-host James Franco says the following: “Look, Social Network is about new technology and how people are communicating now? Or it’s supposed to be? They don’t deal with any of that! It’s a very classically structured movie and classically made movie. [People] just want the old. They want more of the old, boring stuff. People sitting around talking.”

Obviously the 12 Oscar nominations gathered this morning by The King’s Speech (and congrats to everyone concerned) suggests that the Spirit of 1993 is alive and well among Academy members. Usually any film with that many nominations tends to be considered the Best Picture frontrunner. But is it? Is The King’s Speech a skilled surfer riding a perfect wave, or is it a boogie board coasting along on whitewash? Is there a way to spin this, or should I just face facts and give up?

I need to accept and deal wiith what’s happened but…but…wow, I don’t feel so good. I like and admire The King’s Speech — it’s a very stirring and well-made film — but at the same time I feel like Milan Kundera did when the Soviet tanks rumbled into Prague. And standing next to the turret on the tank at the head of formation are Dave Karger, Anne Thompson, Peter Howell and their allies, all wearing Soviet military uniforms and beaver hats.

Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay wins for David Fincher and Aaron Sorkin aside, is the Social Network actually going to get attaboyed-but-no-cigared by the rank and file? Maybe I should take a walk or do a half-hour on the treadmill and work off some of the gloom.

Congrats all the same to producer Scott Rudin for the 18 nominations that his two films have gathered — 8 that went to The Social Network and 10 collected by True Grit.

Who would’ve predicted last summer that Inception‘s Christopher Nolan would get shafted on a Best Director Oscar nomination? That film was such a stunning vision, but I guess too many people were just confused by it. I understand what happened and don’t dispute the nominating of Black Swan‘s Darren Aronofsky, True Grit‘s Joel and Ethan Coen, The Fighter‘s David O. Russell and The King’s Speech‘s Tom Hooper. But it just feels unjust on some level. Is it because Nolan, a somewhat dry and circumspect fellow, didn’t schmooze around?

HE’s hearty congrats to Javier Bardem for his Best Actor nomination, just announced, for his highly exceptional performance in Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu‘s Biutiful. (I did what I could to push for this, and so did Steve Pond, Dave Karger, Julia Roberts, Ben Affleck, etc.)

And to Inarritu and the Roadside Attractions team for their Best Foreign Language Feature Oscar nomination.

And I need to say it again — poor Lesley Manville. We all knew weeks ago that the Another Year costar wouldn’t make the Best Actress cut, but I still feel badly for her. If she’d been put into Best Supporting Actress contention, I think she might have beaten out The King’s Speech‘s Helena Bonham Carter . But slaphappy hugs for The Fighter‘s Amy Adams and Melissa Leo for their nominations in this category. And to True Grit‘s Hailee Steinfeld and Animal Kingdom‘s Jacki Weaver.

Wait…Amir Bar Lev‘s The Tillman Story, Alex Gibney‘s Client 9 and Davis Guggenhiem‘s Waiting for Superman didn’t get nominated for Best Feature Doc Oscar? And Lucy Walker‘s Wasteland (a.k.a. “the garbage movie”) and Josh Fox and Trish Adlesic‘s Gasland did? Along with Tim Hetherington and Sebastian Junger‘s Restrepo?

But congrats to the Exit From The Gift Shop guys (Banksy, John Sloss, Jaimie D’Cruz) for their nomination in this realm, and especially to Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs‘ Inside Job, which will almost certainly win now, I think.

Get Low‘s Robert Duvall was denied a Best Actor nomination. The Social Network‘s Andrew Garfield was stiffed in the Best Suporting Actor category. And Mila Kunis didn’t make the Best Supporting Actress list.

I don’t care about listing Oscar nomination predictions. I’ve been feeling Phase One fatigue for three or four weeks now. I think I’m going to just let the Oscar nominations just happen tomorrow morning without laying claim to being a soothsayer. We all know which films will probably get Best Picture nominated, and so on, etc. I’d rather just react to the oversights and oddnesses.

Today’s screenings, as noted, began with Andrew Rossi‘s Page One: A Year Inside The New York Times, which is tight, absorbing, amusing here and there, zeitgeisty, etc. And media columnist David Carr comes off as a kind of hip samurai poet-warrior.

I then detoured up to the Page One panel discussion at Bing Bar, and then I got a little hung up watching Susan Sarandon play ping-pong. It’s now 7:38 pm and I’ve just come out of Drake Doremus‘ Like Crazy — a nicely sculpted, finely seasoned, up-and-down young love story with intriguing, ultra-watchable performances from Anton Yelchin (who’s beginning to lose his hair…sorry) and Felicity Jones, who seems to be one of those twinkie Tinkerbell-sized actresses.

How do average- or taller-than-average-sized guys make love with women who are in the height and weight realm of average nine year olds? I don’t have a “problem” with guys who do this, but I never could. Too creepy.

Next up, at 8:30 pm, is Sean Durkin‘s Martha Marcy May Marlene. And then I’ll head straight home to put on the earphones and watch a DVD screener of Anne Sewitsky‘s Happy Happy on the Powerbook. And then to bed at a decent hour. Gotta get up extra early for the Oscar nominations.

The remarkable thing was that this guy, who’d hauled his 19th Century piano up from Salt Lake City, was able to keep his fingers limber enough to play as well as he did. Chopin, I think. The temp was in the mid 20s if not lower. Taken on Sunday, 1.23, 8:55 pm.

I was sitting in a fold-up chair at Park City’s Bing Bar, editing and writing, and a ping-pong game began. I watched a bit, went back to writing, watched a bit more and finally took out the camera. And then a crowd materialized. And then other guys started shooting.

Andrew Rossi‘s Page One: A Year Inside the New York Times, a stirring and thoughtful doc that I finished seeing about two hours ago, has been acquired by Magnolia Magnet for theatrical and on-demand and othe platforms. Indiewire‘s Anne Thompson passed the news along during a Park City q & a with Rossi and N.Y. Times media columnist David Carr.

(l. to r.) N.Y. Times media reporter David Carr, Page One director Andrew Rossi, Indiewire columnist Anne Thompson at Bing on Main Street — Monday, 1.24, 2:45 pm.

The Times pay wall, said Carr, will launch within a month or two. Rossi quoted a Wall Street Journal report that the monthly fee for both internet and iPad access would be north of $20, and that internet-only would be under $20.

Today the constantly agitating “CitizenKaned4Life” asked “what do you make of this whole Red State thing, Jeff? The internet’s abuzz — partially about the film, but mainly about Kevin Smith’s self-financed distribution roadshow trek. I understand you’re undoubtedly busy seeing films, but this all went down last night, and — at least compared to other sites right now — your web silence regarding your former employer is starting to become slightly deafening.”

Anyone with the vision, cojones and marketing savvy to self-distribute their reportedly not-great film and make a decent profit has my respect. If Smith succeeds financially, good for him — maybe he’ll inspire others to follow. Saying that he “could not think of anything worse than creating a film and turning it over to a studio to market” is more than understandable.

As for the film itself, there’s been a general “eff the press” policy re viewings. A few days ago I asked Kevin for help in getting a ticket to last night’s screening. He was too busy to respond or whatever, and he was testy with me when I wrote to ask a question a week or two ago. But he’s always been straight and decent with me so I’m figuring he was stressed. I also asked a publicist with ties to the film for help — zip.

I could have worked it some more and landed a ticket, sure, but before last night I’d been persuaded that Red State wasn’t a very good film (a trade reporter told me he’d heard it was close to unwatchable, or words to that effect) and that it frankly wasn’t worth the trouble. So I said “screw it — there are too many better-sounding films to see.”

The post-screening reaction hasn’t been as bad as all that, although Justin Chang‘s Variety review was a decisive thumbs-down. Indiewire‘s Eric Kohn has written that “despite admirably intense performances, the movie can’t seem to settle on a specific tone..[it] movie runs the gamut from suspense to camp and back again.”

So I’ll see it when I see it. No hurry or worry. Here, in the meantime, is Smith’s just-received Red State tour itinerary.

Smith and Red State costars at last night’s after-party.