“Jim Cameron…this Oscar sees you.,..clearly, your vision is so deep”…cancer recovery…”we really felt that…that you so much.” Waterfalls of emotion. Okay.

I was moved by her closing her eyes and holding still for a second or two before getting up to take the stage, and her bows. “I’d like to thank the Academy for showing it can be about the performance, and not the politics.” D’ja hear that, Tom O’Neil?

…for Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner for Up In The Air. Instead…wait, Geoffrey Fletcher unexpectedly wins the Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar? First major surprise of the night. Stop sniffling! Sniffling is inexcusable! Steve Martin: “I wrote that speech for [Fletcher].” My ballot is so fucked at this point. Four wrong! Forget it.

I would give the Best Makeup Oscar to Il Divo, but that’s me. Stiller steals the show. Good fishing rod joke. Star Trek wins, natch. Picked it. A staff of 40? Honorable mention of JJ Abrams.

The short film awards are a disaster for me, choosing-wise, ballot-wise. People are going “what…what? Who’s that red-haired woman?” Give all the short-film people the hook? Send ’em down the chute?

92Y Tribeca Oscar party tablemates (l. to r.): Movieline‘s Stu Van Airsdale, Icarus Films marketing/publicity chief Sylvia Savadjian, Coming Soon‘s Ed Douglas, filmmaker Jamie Stuart.,

…for Best Original Screenplay means The Hurt Locker is definitely going to win Best Picture. Right? A current, foreshadowing, whatever.

Of course. Fine. Tarantino ass-sucking. Way to go. Whatever. Wait…Up wins for Best Animated Feature? Big shocker. Baldwin and Martin are brilliant. And Crazy Heart‘s “The Bloated 57 Year-Old Jowly Kind” wins for Best Song? Got that right.

Schmaltzy Neil Patrick Harris in a glitter tux…? Totally gay, totally Vegas. But Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin‘s entrance is perfect. “And this is Alec Baldwin!” Good material. Hey, there’s Ethan Coen! “Pr ecious is the one film that really lived up to its video game.” Cloooney’s hair looks good. “And [Cameron] reciprocated by sending her…a Toyota!” Good stuff. “You are so naive.” These guys are great!

I went to a 2-D screening of Tim Burton‘s Alice in Wonderland last night at 11:15 pm at the Lincoln Square. For 17 minutes they ran a series of excruciating trailers for some awful-looking family-friendly films (the absolute worst being Roger Kumble‘s Furry Vengeance) before starting the main feature. I was ready to leave because of the trailers alone. The family market is a sludge depository — a genre that attracts mediocre talent like a magnet.

And then Alice finally began. Because the tint of Burton’s talent is ten times more appealing than Kumble’s, I felt initially relieved. And then I began to gradually pull back. And then I became distracted. And then bored. But I made it through to the end, which in my realm is saying something.

I didn’t despise Alice, but I didn’t care for it much either. I should be more explicit and say that I didn’t hate it altogether. A lot of it looks…well, quite expensive. It diverts with some lovely CG renderings. It’s clearly been made by a first-rate artist-professional with an obviously developed visual signature. Some aspects were visually appealing enough (the rasberry-popsicle helmet hair worn by Helena Bonham Carter‘s Red Queen, Johnny Depp‘s luminous green eyes and pumpkin-colored coif) to make me nod in appreciation.

But it was awfully hard to hear the dialogue. Partly because it was so whispery (I twice begged the staff to turn the sound up), and partly because of the primly Victorian British accents that for some reason just weren’t easily decipherable. I understood some of what was being said, but only about 50% to 60%, I’d say. I’d hear a word or phrase and then piece it together. But I didn’t give a damn about the story in the least. My task was to sit through it without giving up in disgust, and I did that. There’s enough high-end fantasy art to keep the eyes sated or filled like tanks of gas..

But the energy levels in the one-third filled house (which looked to me like mostly Hispanic Eloi) were completely flat There’s no way Alice won’t drop by at least 60% or 65% next weekend. It just wasn’t playing all that well.

Eight years ago I walked out of Roger Kumble‘s The Sweetest Thing at the six-minute mark. I could see in a flash it was a reprehensible confection. Last night I saw the trailer for Kumble’s Furry Vengeance (Summit, 4.30). It may not be the most infuriatingly awful film of the year thus far — trailers can deceive — but I feel I know Kumble’s brushstrokes, and that I’m right to believe that he’s a menace.

I briefly spoke with Fox’s Gerald Rivera on his Geraldo At Large show last night around 10:10 pm. The subject was all the recent negative stories about The Hurt Locker (articles about the film’s lack of authenticity, Sgt. Jeffrey Sarver‘s lawsuit based on his claim that he was the basis for Jeremy Renner‘s character, the Nicolas Chartier snafu), and whether this might impact the Best Picture race.

I was asked to contribute, I gather, because Geraldo or one of his researchers saw Eric Ditzian‘s 3.4 MTV.com article (“Will ‘Hurt Locker’ Controversy Affect Its Oscar Chances?”) in which I was quoted saying that the Hurt Locker attacks were “obviously coordinated…these things don’t happen at the last minute on their own.” What I meant was that they were coordinated — initiated, researched, reported on — by like-minded editors and reporters looking to portray a last-minute tightening drama in the Best Picture race.

Geraldo said during our on-air chat that he’d been told by a source that “a producer of Inglourious Basterds” had allegedly fired a press torpedo or two directly at the hull of The Hurt Locker. He obviously wanted me to say “yeah, I’ve heard that also…probably true!” Except I don’t know or even suspect that so I naturally declined to point the finger at anyone connected to Basterds (i.e., Harvey Weinstein). No one’s even whispered there’s anything to this — zip

So I said what I basically think, which is that certain journalists and editors sensed a great dramatic potential a few weeks ago in the prospect of a Hurt Locker reversal-of-fortune, especially after the BAFTA and Eddie Award wins created a front-runner status, and so some decided to research and write articles that might introduce a cliffhanger element into an already thrilling David-vs.-Goliath scenario.

That scenario was waay too complex for Geraldo At Large, of course, so the conversation ended soon after, the show went to a break, Geraldo said “thanks, man” and I said “sure, likewise” and scooted off.

BEST PICTURE / HE Prediction: The Hurt Locker. If The Movie Godz Controlled The Vote: The Hurt Locker. Nagging Suspicion That The Winner May Nonetheless Be: Avatar.

BEST DIRECTOR / HE Prediction: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker. If The Movie Godz Controlled The Vote: Bigelow. 100% Confident Suspicion That The Winner Will Be: Bigelow.

BEST ACTOR / strong>HE Prediction: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart. If The Movie Godz Controlled The Vote: Colin Firth, A Single Man. 100% Confident Suspicion That The Winner Will Be: Bridges.

BEST ACTRESS / HE Prediction: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side. If The Movie Godz Controlled The Vote: Carey Mulligan, An Education. Nagging Suspicion That The Wild-Card Winner May Nonetheless Be: Gabby Sidibe, Precious.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR / HE Prediction: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds. If The Movie Godz Controlled The Vote: The Movie Godz don’t care about this one. 100% Confident Suspicion That The Winner Will Be: Waltz.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS / HE Prediction: Mo’Nique, Precious. If The Movie Godz Controlled The Vote: Vera Farmiga, Up In the Air. 100% Suspicion That The Winner Will Be: Mo’Nique.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY / HE Prediction: Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner for Up in the Air (consolation prize for getting elbowed out of the Best Picture race). If The Movie Godz Controlled The Vote: The In The Loop guys. Nagging Suspicion That The Winner May Nonetheless Be: Reitman, Turner.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY / HE Prediction: Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker. If The Movie Godz Controlled The Vote: Boal. Nagging Suspicion That The Winner May Nonetheless Be: Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds.

BEST ANIMATED FILM / HE Prediction: Up. If The Movie Godz Controlled The Vote: Up. 100% Confident Suspicion That The Winner Will Be: Up.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FILM / HE Prediction: The Cove. If The Movie Godz Controlled The Vote: The Cove. Nagging Suspicion That The Winner May Nonetheless Be: Food, Inc..

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM / HE Prediction: The Secret In Their Eyes (totally bowing to Scott Feinberg on this one — I know absolutely nothing). If The Movie Godz Controlled The Vote: A Prophet or The White Ribbon. Nagging Suspicion That The Winner May Nonetheless Be: The Secret In Their Eyes.

BEST ART DIRECTION / HE Prediction: Avatar‘s Rick Carter, Kim Sinclair, Robert Stromberg. If The Movie Godz Controlled The Vote: Avatar. Nagging Suspicion That The Winner May Nonetheless Be: Avatar.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY / HE Prediction: The Hurt Locker‘s Barry Ackroyd. If The Movie Godz Controlled The Vote: The Hurt Locker or The White Ribbon‘s Christian Berger. Nagging Suspicion That The Winner May Nonetheless Be: Inglourious Basterds‘ Robert Richardson.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN / HE Prediction: Bright Star‘s Janet Patterson. If The Movie Godz Controlled The Vote: Bright Star or Nine‘s Collen Atwood. Nagging Suspicion That The Winner May Nonetheless Be: The Young Victoria‘s Sandy Powell.

BEST FILM EDITING / HE Prediction: The Hurt Locker‘s Bob Murawski, Chris Innis. If The Movie Godz Controlled The Vote: Bright Star or Nine‘s Colleen Atwood. Nagging Suspicion That The Winner May Nonetheless Be: Avatar‘s Steven Rifkin, John Refoua, James Cameron.

BEST MAKEUP / HE Prediction: Star Trek‘s Barney Burman, Mindy Hall, Joel Harlow. If The Movie Godz Controlled The Vote: Il Divo‘s Aldo Signoretti, Vittorio Sodano. Nagging Suspicion That The Winner May Nonetheless Be: Star Trek.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE / HE Prediction: Avatar‘s James Horner. If The Movie Godz Controlled The Vote: Fantastic Mr. Fox‘s Alexandre Desplat. Nagging Suspicion That The Winner May Nonetheless Be: Up‘s Michael Giacchino.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG / HE Prediction: Crazy Heart’s‘s “The Weary Kind” (Ryan Bingham, T-Bone Burnett). If The Movie Godz Controlled The Vote: No opinion. Nagging Suspicion That The Winner May Nonetheless Be: Crazy Heart/”The Weary Kind.”

BEST SOUND EDITING / HE Prediction: Avatar‘s Christopher Boyes, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle. If The Movie Godz Controlled The Vote: The Hurt Locker‘s Paul N.J. Ottoson. Nagging Suspicion That The Winner May Nonetheless Be: the Avatar guys.

BEST SOUND MIXING / HE Prediction: Avatar‘s Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, Andy Nelson, Tony Johnson. If The Movie Godz Controlled The Vote: The Hurt Locker‘s Paul N.J. Ottoson, Ray Beckett. Nagging Suspicion That The Winner May Nonetheless Be: the Avatar team.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS / HE Prediction: Avatar‘s Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham, Andrew R. Jones. No variations or suppositions — Avatar all the way.

BEST SHORT FILM (ANIMATED) / HE Prediction: A Matter of Loaf and Death (Nick Park) — no clue on this category at all — totally leaning on Scott Feinberg.

BEST SHORT FILM (DOCUMENTARY) / HE Prediction: The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant (Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert) — ditto.

BEST SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION) / HE Prediction Miracle Fish (Luke Doolan, Drew Bailey) — ditto.