Thus morning I finally got around to dumping HE’s boilerplate Oscar Balloon movies-to-watch list for an Award Season, six-major-category assessment list with special parentheticals where appropriate — ABL = all but locked, EP = extra HE passion, RD = respectful disagreement/disapproval, AG = afterglow or makeup for previous loss, SD/MG = special dispensation/support of Movie Godz, NYS = not yet seen, GW = gold-watch award for septugenarians & octogenarians.

A few nominees are obviously ABL but the standing of many are subject to whimsy, peer pressure, mood pockets & the usual wind shifts.

Best Picture (in order of apparent likelihood): Joy (ABL, NYS); The Revenant (ABL, NYS); Spotlight (EP, SD/MG); The Big Short (NYS); The Martian (RD); Steve Jobs, Carol (fine) Room (RD); Bridge of Spies (RD), Love & Mercy EP, SD/MG) (10). In Need Of Heat: Brooklyn, Beasts of No Nation, Mad Max: Fury Road, Suffragette, Son of Saul (EP), The Hateful Eight (NYS), The Danish Girl. (7).

Best Director (in order of apparent likelihood): David O. Russell, Joy (ABL); Alejandro Inarritu, The Revenant; Tom McCarthy, Spotlight EP; Ridley Scott, The Martian (GW) (5). Heel-nippers: Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation (EP); Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs; Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies; George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (EP); Bill Pohlad, Love & Mercy (EP, SD/MG).

Best Actor (in order of apparent likelihood): Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (NYS, AG); Steve Carell, The Big Short (NYS); Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs; Matt Damon, The Martian; Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl. Heel-nippers: Michael Caine, Youth (GW), Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies, John Cusack, Love & Mercy (EP, SD/MG); Will Smith, Concussion (NYS).

Best Actress (in order of apparent likelihood): Jennifer Lawrence, Joy (NYS); Brie Larson, Room (ABL); Cate Blanchett, Carol/Truth (EP); Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn EP; Lily Tomlin, Grandma. Heel-nippers: Carey Mulligan, Suffragette (EP); Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road; Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years (GW).

Best Supporting Actor (in order of apparent likelihood): Robert DeNiro, Joy (NYS); Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies; Mark Ruffalo or Michael Keaton, Spotlight; Paul Dano, Love & Mercy (EP); Tom Hardy, The Revenant NYS. Heel-nippers: Michael Shannon, 99 Homes, Freeheld EP; Benicio Del Toro, Sicario; Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation, Jason Segel, End of the Tour; Sylvester Stallone, Creed (NYS); Ryan Gosling, The Big Short (NYS).

Best Supporting Actress (in order of apparent likelihood): Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl; Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs; Rooney Mara, Carol; Jane Fonda (EP, GW), Youth; Elizabeth Banks, Love & Mercy (EP). Heel-nippers: Diane Ladd, Joy; Joan Allen, Room; Rachel McAdams, Spotlight (EP).

I haven’t yet given myself over to studying Best Original & Best Adapted Screenplay likelies. I’ll add them as soon as I do.

The new Star Wars VII: The Force Awakens one-sheet seems to fortify what producer Kathy Kennedy was quoted as saying four days ago, which is that Daisy Ridley‘s Rey character will be “extremely significant.” This sounded to everyone like a hint that she has Skywalker blood in her veins — a child of either Luke Skywalker or Princess Leia. Director J.J. Abrams has, I believe, offered assurances that the film will make no mention whatsoever of midi-chlorians.

Taped six days ago (10.12) at Manhattan’s UCB Theatre, Donald Trump (Anthony Atamanuik) vs. Bernie Sanders (James Adomian).

You think last weekend’s Oscar Poker chat between myself, Sasha Stone and Boxoffice.com‘s Phil Contrino was fairly diverting? This morning’s chat, which featured AwardsWatch.com’s Erik Anderson, was even better. We got into the whole Joy research-screening thing, and just talking about it whetted my appetite all the more. We also discussed the most likely contenders in the major categories (Best Picture, Actor, Actress, Director, Supporting Actor & Actress). It’s a long chat (over 90 minutes) but I swear to God it’s very smooth and fast and entertaining. Again, the mp3.

Yesterday I watched portions of the 50th anniversary Bluray of George Cukor‘s My Fair Lady (’64), and more particularly Robert Harris‘s 8K digital restoration of this multi-Oscar-winning film. And then I went to Westwood’s IPIC theatre to catch it on a 30-foot screen.

Say what you will about My Fair Lady itself, but the images are as good and clean and flush as they’ve ever looked, and probably better. I can’t say enough about the lusciousness of the compositions, about the value of this kind of exacting work — a blue-chip rebirth or recreation of the highest order. The last My Fair Lady Bluray, released in 2011, delivered less than 30% of the resolution contained in the original Super Panavision 70 photography, but Harris has brought this 51-year-old film back. Hats off to him and the Paramount folks who signed off on it.

Now that I’ve congratulated Harris on a job well done, I’m free to say that I truly can’t stand this leaden adaptation of Lerner & Loewe’s legendary musical, which debuted on the Broadway stage in 1956. It’s based, of course, on George Bernard Shaw‘s Pygmalion, a non-musical first produced on the London stage in 1913.

At various stages along the way and perhaps as late as the initial Broadway version, Pygmalion/My Fair Lady delivered, I’m sure, a semblance of real life and authenticity, but in the hands of Cukor and particularly Jack L. Warner, who personally produced the film, My Fair Lady was turned into a pageant — a slow-moving, exactingly designed thing that suppressed or suffocated whatever appealing elements were presumably there 59 or 102 years ago.

It’s lumbering and lifeless — an odd hybrid of a stage musical that’s been heavily starched and weighted down + an early 1900s fashion show + a tableau of cinematic stodginess. It’s in love with its own lavish budget and dedicated to making everything look and feel as sterilized as possible. There are horses left and right in the Covent Garden scenes, and the cobble-stoned streets are always whistle-clean without even a lump or two of horseshit.

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The bright and affable Madelyn Hammond (a.k.a. “the Job Whisperer”) interviewed the core trio behind All Things Must Pass following last night’s 7:45 pm Arclight screening — director Colin Hanks, producer Sean M. Stuart and, most legendarily, Tower Records founder and human locomotive Russ Solomon, who hits (or already has hit) his 90th birthday this year. Hollywood Elsewhere, sitting front and center, captured some of it on an iPhone 6 Plus.

From 10.2 HE review: All Things Must Pass “is not only a chronicle of a mythical record-store mecca but a farewell valentine to the now-concluded era of the record (or video) store as a family meeting place — an organic, tactile clubhouse where you went to hang and converse and debate as well as occasionally buy stuff.

“Streaming has made everything bountiful in terms of access but the face-to-face community aspect is toast. Social media is a chillier, lonelier way of communicating. Which is why I still go to Amoeba once or twice a week. Half the time I’ll decide to rent a streaming version of a Bluray I’ll see in the racks or pay less money by buying online, but I go for the visitation vibes, the personalities, the energy, the people-gazing.

The former home of Tower Records on the Sunset Strip was re-dressed with Tower signage a couple of days ago, and it was still there last night. Snapped an hour or so after the All Things Must Pass q & a at the Arclight.

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Strictly literal or historical-minded types are advised to loosen their laces before seeing David O. Russell‘s Joy (20th Century Fox, 12.25). Don’t be overly attached to the real story of Joy Mangano, the inventor-marketer of the Miracle Mop and Huggable Hangers. It is about Ms. Mangano, of course, but the facts about her struggle and the success of he Ingenious Designs have been treated as starting elements. The movie is about a lot more than just her history…a lot more. Call it a launch pad, a point of embarkation.

SNL‘s Anderson Cooper is about 50% gayer than the real deal. Larry David was terrific (“I own one pair of underwear…that’s it!”) but making a laugh line out of Bernie Sanders‘ call for a revolution is 33% timidity, 33% complacency and 34% we’re finished. Hillary: “If you get into bed with Bernie Sanders tonight, you’re going to wake up tomorrow with Donald Trump.” And she’ll never ask Bernie to be her veep. And she won’t make a granny ticket by tapping Elizabeth Warren either (although she should) for fear of alienating angry conservative rural males.

Today’s eyebrow raiser is Paramount’s decision to run Steve Carell as Best Actor for his for his performance as Steve Eisman, a real-life investment specialist, in Adam McKay‘s The Big Short (Paramount, 12.11.)

I wasn’t allowed to catch that special DGA screening two nights ago (i.e., Thursday, 10.15), but I’ve spoken to three guys who did attend, and two regard the Carell-as-Best-Actor thing as a “yeah, maybe, I guess” or “you could make a case that he’s a lead.” A third feels that calling him a lead stretches the definition as Short, he contends, is an ensemble piece made up of three or four parallel storylines, and Carell is basically playing a strong supporting role.

Steve Carell as Steve Eisman in Adam McKay‘s The Big Short.

The main characters besides Carell/Eisman are Christian Bale as Michael Burry, Ryan Gosling as Greg Lippmann and, the least prominent of the bunch, Brad Pitt as Ben Hockett.

The three guys I’ve spoken to all agree that Carell’s performance stands out more than that of his costars, but only one of them (call him Observer #1) half-agrees that it deserves to be called a lead performance. Then again he’s analogizing it to Michael Douglas‘s performance in Traffic, which was kind of a lead but not entirely. His role was somewhat larger than Benicio del Toro‘s Mexican narcotics officer but not tremendously so. It was Benicio, remember, who wound up winning the Best Supporting Actor Oscar while Douglas wasn’t nominated for anything.

Perhaps Paramount has decided to “run” Carell as a lead so they can push Bale as a Best Supporting Actor contender without having them compete with each other? Something like that?

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It would also be nice to post some reactions to Steven Spielberg‘s Bridge of Spies, which opened yesterday and is doing fairly well for a dialogue-driven espionage tale aimed at over-40s. Rather than solicit random comments perhaps readers could address certain opinions and observations from a 10.14 Film Comment review by Michael Sragow?

Remark / observation #1: “As he did in Munich, Spielberg broadens and coarsens a fascinating tale into an overbearingly obvious and preachy statement on the cruelty of political divisions (and borders) and the importance of preserving humane values.”

Remark / observation #2: “Whenever they collaborate on a movie (this is the fourth time), Spielberg and Tom Hanks say they play to their strengths. But by now they have succumbed to their weaknesses. They prod each other into even greater pseudo-innocence and forced, excessive sentiment. Their mawkishness seems to double when they’re in each other’s sight.”

Remark / observation #3: “Partly because of Spielberg’s determination that audiences get the right messages and feel the proper feelings, Bridge of Spies, despite tense and witty passages, is misshapen, over-long and cripplingly erratic.”

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